ARK Invest Heavily Buys Crypto-Related Stocks: Lower Risk, or Double Pressure?
During Bitcoin's worst monthly performance in four years, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, purchased $77 million worth of stock in crypto-related public companies in June, including Coinbase, Circle, and Bullish. The investment thesis suggests these stocks offer compliant exposure to the crypto sector without directly holding Bitcoin. However, analysis reveals significant drawbacks: these stocks exhibit nearly double the volatility of Bitcoin itself (68%-90% vs. 37.6% over 30 days) and only moderate correlation with Bitcoin prices (0.55-0.58 for several firms). This indicates investors are exposed to both partial crypto price movements and a full suite of company-specific business risks like earnings, competition, and financing. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is the closest to a pure Bitcoin proxy with high correlation and leverage (beta of 1.59). In contrast, Circle's price is heavily influenced by stablecoin competition, while Robinhood's diversified business buffers crypto downturns but also limits upside. Notably, some mining stocks (RIOT, MARA) have risen sharply in 2024 due to AI-related ventures, decoupling from Bitcoin's decline. The case of MicroStrategy highlights additional equity-specific risks like potential shareholder dilution and the breakdown of its premium valuation model (mNAV), which recently forced it to consider selling Bitcoin for liquidity. While some stocks like Coinbase have outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, the data suggests investing in crypto equities generally amplifies volatility or layers on independent business risks compared to direct Bitcoin ownership.
marsbit32m ago
