流动性周期改道，你的资产跟上了吗？

深潮Published on 2025-07-11Last updated on 2025-07-11

我们还没到激增阶段。

撰文：hoeem

编译：Saoirse，Foresight News

世代传承的财富往往诞生于从紧缩周期转向宽松的阶段。因此，明确自身在流动性周期中的位置，是精准布局资产的关键。我们如今处于哪个阶段？且听我细细道来……

为何你必须关注流动性周期（即使讨厌宏观经济）

央行流动性如同全球经济引擎的润滑油：

注入过多会让市场「超速运转」；抽离过度则会导致「活塞卡死」，就像你精心打扮的约会对象突然离你而去。重点是：若能跟上流动性的节奏，你就能提前预判泡沫与崩盘。

2020-2025 年流动性的四个阶段：

1、激增阶段（2020-2021 年）

央行像开足马力的消防水枪疯狂注水：零利率落地、量化宽松（QE）规模创历史纪录，16 万亿美元财政救济砸向市场。

从背景看，全球货币供应量（M2）增速比二战以来任何时期都要快。

2、枯竭阶段（2021-2022 年）

利率飙升 500 个基点，量化紧缩（QT）启动，危机救助计划到期。

直观来说，2022 年债券市场创下史上最大跌幅（约 - 17%）。

3、平稳阶段（2022-2024 年）

政策保持紧缩，没有新动作。

决策者维持现有政策，让其充分发挥作用以压制通胀。

4、初步转向阶段（2024-2025 年）

全球开始降息并放松限制，尽管利率仍处于相对高位，但已开启下行趋势。

2025 年中期现状：我们一只脚还停留在平稳阶段，另一只脚试探着迈向初步转向阶段的第一步。当前利率高企，量化紧缩仍在持续，但除非新的冲击把我们拽回激增模式，否则下一步大概率会继续宽松。

更多细节可见下面的「交通信号灯速查手册」…

没错，我找 GPT 帮忙做了个超酷的表格！下面这张表能让你一眼看清 2017、2021、2025 这三个关键年份的情况：

十二大流动性杠杆交通信号灯速查手册：

🔴 未激活 🟧 轻度激活 🟢 强烈激活

🔑 能激活其他 11 个杠杆的总开关是哪一个？

逐步拆解：

降息方面——2017 年美联储加息，全球几乎没有宽松政策；2021 年全球紧急降息至接近零的水平；2025 年为维持抗通胀的公信力，利率保持高位，但美国和欧洲核心国家已计划在 2025 年底首次小幅降息。

量化宽松 / 紧缩（QE/QT）——2017 年美联储在缩减资产负债表，而其他大型央行还在买入债券；2020 到 2021 年全球各地都推出了创纪录的量化宽松政策；到 2025 年政策立场逆转，美联储继续实施量化紧缩，日本央行仍在无限制购买债券，中国则在有选择地注入流动性。

通俗来说：量化宽松就像给经济「输血」，量化紧缩则是「慢慢抽血」。

你得知道我们什么时候会进入量化紧缩或量化宽松阶段，以及当前处于流动性周期的哪个位置……

2025 年中期现状仪表盘：

  • 降息方面：政策利率仍处于高位；若进展顺利，可能在 2025 年第四季度首次降息。

  • 量化宽松 / 紧缩（QE/QT）：量化紧缩（QT）仍在进行，目前尚未推出新的量化宽松（QE）政策，但已出现早期刺激信号。

需重点关注的信号：

信号 1：通胀率降至 2% 且政策制定者宣布风险平衡

  • 观察要点：美联储或欧央行声明明确转向中性措辞

  • 关键意义：为降息扫清最后一道舆论障碍

信号 2：量化紧缩（QT）暂停（上限设为 0 或 100% 再投资）

  • 观察要点：美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）或欧央行宣布对到期债券全额再投资

  • 关键意义：将资产负债表缩减转为中性状态，增加市场流动性储备

信号 3：三个月期远期利率协议与隔夜指数掉期利差（FRA-OIS）超过 25 个基点或回购利率突然飙升

  • 观察要点：三个月期 FRA-OIS 利差（注：远期利率协议（FRA）利率与隔夜指数掉期（OIS）利率的差值，是衡量金融市场信用风险和流动性风险的重要指标。）或一般抵押品（GC）回购利率跳升至 25 个基点左右

  • 关键意义：预示美元融资压力，通常会迫使央行提供流动性支持

信号 4：中国人民银行（PBoC）全面下调存款准备金率（RRR）25 个基点

  • 观察要点：全国性存款准备金率降至 6.35% 以下

  • 关键意义：注入 4000 亿元基础货币，常成为新兴市场宽松政策的第一块多米诺骨牌

总结来说…

我们还没到激增阶段。

因此，在大量杠杆变为绿色之前，市场会继续反复出现风险偏好波动，不会真正进入狂热阶段。

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