泽连斯基穿什么背后：预测市场，正在变成操纵市场

链捕手Published on 2025-07-09Last updated on 2025-07-09

作者：Omer Goldberg，Founder of Chaos Labs

编译：深潮 TechFlow

关于 Polymarket 的 Zelensky 诉讼的争议并不是一个小故障。而是价值 2 亿美元的人类控制的预言机中的致命缺陷：当腐败的成本低于回报时，真相就会成为一种商品，卖给出价最高的人。

泽连斯基的 2 亿美元时装秀

想象一下：泽连斯基穿着每个主要新闻媒体都称之为西装的西装走进北约峰会。该市场的交易量为 2 亿美元。结果似乎很明显。然后，UMA 的预言机投了「反对票」。

这并不是因为泽连斯基没穿西装，也不是因为证据不明确，而是因为控制预言机的人押注数千万美元投「反对票」，他们只需要利用自己的投票权来改写现实，而无需承担任何实际风险。

（深潮注：UMA 是一个开源协议，全称是 Universal Market Access。其依赖于经济激励和争议解决来确保价格数据的准确性。）

预言机操纵入门

关于人类控制的预言机令人不安的事实是：人类存在偏见。

  • 一些最大的 UMA 持有者对「否」持重要看好。
  • 当 「赞成票」 看起来是正确的结果时，他们不接受失败;他们翻转了投票结果。
  • 投出超过 2300 万的 UMA，价值约 2500 万美元，以质疑结果。

这不是去中心化。而是鲸鱼在保护自己的利益。有了足够的 UMA 和协调，真相并不重要，结果才重要。

更广泛的预言机危机

这个问题远远超出了 Polymarket 和 UMA 的范围。人为控制的预言机容易受到各种操纵和激励设计陷阱的影响。

虽然我们以 Zelensky Suit Market 作为案例研究，但我们会注意到，我们之前已经观察到这个问题，即 2025 年 3 月的乌克兰矿产交易市场。

每个主要的预测市场都面临着相同的基本挑战。

当人类控制真理时，真理就会屈服于人类的利益：摆脱人为控制的预言机：用智能取代意图。

对付人类预言机的唯一真正解决办法是移除人类。

AI 驱动的预言机改变了这一点：

  • 没有经济激励：模型不持有立场或关心谁赢。
  • 抗偏差决策规则：相同的训练权重、相同的提示、相同的温度 = 模型以相同的基本标准对证据进行评分。AI 没有情绪，没有附带赌注，没有幕后协调。
  • 推理管道：每个中间步骤都可以记录、检查和重放。
  • 机器规模的吞吐量：并行摄取数千个信息来源，没有倦怠或附带交易。

残差仍然存在，但它是随机统计噪声。这对交易者来说要难得多。凭借清晰的分辨率标准和经过身份验证的数据馈送，最先进的模型已经提供了生产级的准确性，并且曲线还在急剧改善。

残余噪声胜过计算的谎言

预测市场的未来需要将人类完全从真相认定中剔除。

此体系结构如下所示：

  • 预定义的来源层次结构： 路透社 > BBC > 本地新闻 > 博客
  • 数据来源的加密证明：验证信息未被篡改
  • 多智能体共识：多个 AI 系统得出独立结论
  • 透明推理：每个决策的完整审计跟踪
  • 不可变证据：区块链存储的无法修改或删除的证明

后真相世界中的真相发现

预测市场是一个更大挑战的缩影。当维基百科可以编辑，新闻可以修改，「事实」可以协商时，我们需要能够建立基本事实真相的系统。

这涵盖了以下领域：

  • 选举完整性和验证
  • 科学共识和研究验证
  • 深度伪造时代的新闻真实性
  • 历史记录保存和防篡改
  • 企业透明度和问责制

最后的思考

预测市场面临的选择是严峻的：继续假装激励驱动的人类可以成为真理的中立仲裁者，或者建立完全消除人类偏见的真理确定系统。

市场本身已经回答了这个问题。当 2 亿美元流入市场，一个显而易见的结果，而这个显而易见的结果却又失败时，这个系统就暴露了它的本质。

真相发现太重要了，不能拍卖给出价最高的人。

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