Состояние венчурного рынка в 2025 году

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-08-23Last updated on 2025-04-23

Взгляд Сэма Лессина,Slow Ventures По мнению Сэма Лессина, венчурный рынок и стартапы в 2025 году переживают кризис.

И вот почему: 1. Крах "фабричной модели" венчурного рынка Лессин утверждает, что традиционная модель венчурных инвестиций, которая работала последние 20+ лет, разрушена по 4 ключевым причинам: - Мертвый спрос публичного рынка на "единорогов". •Публичные рынки больше не готовы платить премию за технологические компании с выручкой $1-10 млрд. •Произошла переоценка масштабов больших технологических компаний (Microsoft, Amazon и т.д.) •Проблема неблагоприятного отбора: частные рынки оставляли себе лучшие активы и выводили на IPO "мусор". •Слишком много псевдотехнологических компаний получили техническую оценку (DTC, телемедицина, микромобильность). 2. Исчезновение понятности частного рынка •Без ясных метрик и оценок стоимости компаний рынок потерял ориентиры •Основатели на ранних стадиях могут быть стерты с капитализации даже при успехе компании •Появился феномен "cramdown" (принудительное снижение оценки) 3. Ослабление предложения со стороны основателей, сотрудников и LP •LP-инвесторы больше не готовы ждать возврата капитала 10+ лет •Качество стартап-основателей снизилось из-за исчезновения "безопасного пути" к богатству •Талантливые сотрудники не хотят рисковать, работая в стартапах 4. Влияние ИИ на рынок •ИИ делает ПО менее защищенным и менее прибыльным •Исчезает эффект масштаба и инвестиционный ров вокруг софтверных компаний •Усиливается коммодитизация технологий Рекомендации Лессина для seed-инвесторов: Избегать компаний с ИИ и тех, кто требует многораундового финансирования.

Фокус на капиталоэффективности вместо масштабируемости Приоритет финансовой опциональности - компании должны уметь настраиваться на следующий раунд Терпение и дисциплина - работать только с основателями, которые любят свое дело и понимают новую реальность Куда инвестировать? Лессин видит несколько перспективных направлений: 1. Платформы для малого бизнеса (возрождение Main Street) 2. "Бизнес в коробке" / франшизы нового типа 3. "Не-сетевые" бизнесы в стиле жизни (SaaS для реального будущего) 4. Криптовалюты (как одна из немногих областей, где возможен "следующий великий платформенный сдвиг")

Лессин считает, что венчурный рынок возвращается к своим корням - поддержке нишевых, прибыльных бизнесов вместо погони за глобальными единорогами. ИИ является "расширяющей инновацией", которая усилит существующие платформы (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, которая запрещена в РФ), а не создаст новых гигантов, что делает традиционную модель венчурного финансирования неэффективной в новой реальности.

GPT-5.6 is About to Launch, with Reasoning Speed Soaring to 750 Tokens/s, Allegedly Spanning 100 Wafers

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marsbit4m ago

GPT-5.6 is About to Launch, with Reasoning Speed Soaring to 750 Tokens/s, Allegedly Spanning 100 Wafers

marsbit4m ago

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Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Countries Still View Them as Gambling

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marsbit1h ago

Beyond Private Keys: From Wallets and L2 to Supply Chains, How to Guard the Security Perimeter of Web3?

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Robinhood Chain Goes Viral in One Week: Memes Drive Traffic, Stablecoins Support TVL

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ambcrypto1h ago

Kazakhstan’s new crypto adoption push: Stablecoin rules, tax exemptions explained!