Эксперт связал продолжение бычьего рынка с перспективами биткоин-резерва в США

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-02-25Last updated on 2025-02-25

Приток нового капитала в криптовалюты возобновится после прояснения перспектив с биткоин-резервом США. Такой прогноз дал сооснователь кастодиана Cobo и майнингового пула F2Pool Шэнь Юй.

One of the largest miners in China, co-founder of Cobo and f2pool @bitfish1 predicted that the market may pick up in June-October this year. If the US National Bitcoin Reserve is not passed, the bull market may be over, but at this moment, the probability of passing is still…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 25, 2025

По его ожиданиям, это может произойти во втором полугодии — примерно с июля по октябрь.

«Ключ в том, будет ли результат с национальным резервом США в этом году. Если нет, то бычий рынок, возможно, закончился, но вероятность его продолжения на данный момент все еще относительно высока», — заключил предприниматель.

25 февраля цена биткоина провалила уровень $90 000. На момент написания первая криптовалюта торгуется на отметках около $89 000. Совокупная капитализация рынка сократилась почти на 9% — до $3,02 трлн (CoinGecko).

По данным IntoTheBlock, при текущих котировках всего около 12% биткоин-адресов находятся в «бумажных» убытках. Однако это рекордный показатель с октября 2024 года.

Bitcoin once fell below $89,000. According to IntoTheBlock, as the price of Bitcoin fell below $90,000, about 12% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in an unrealized loss state, a record high since October 2024.
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 25, 2025

Эксперты CryptoQuant обратили внимание, что крупные инвесторы покупают на просадке цены.

«26 430 BTC только что поступили на адреса аккумулирования китов — чаще всего связанные с внебиржевыми сделками и долгосрочным хранением», — отметили аналитики.

Whales are buying.

26,430 BTC just flowed into whale accumulation addresses—often linked to OTC deals and long-term custody. pic.twitter.com/NkcGWdnAmx
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 25, 2025

Перспективы биткоин-резерва США остаются неясными

В сообществе ожидали, что решение о создании стратегического биткоин-резерва (SBR) президент США Дональд Трамп примет в числе первых после возвращения 20 января в Белый дом. Это было одним из предвыборных обещаний политика.

Глава государства создал рабочую группу по рынкам цифровых активам под руководством «криптоцаря» Дэвида Сакса. Последний назвал оценку инициативы приоритетом, но не представил никаких деталей. Некоторые эксперты назвали осторожный подход администрации касательно крипторезерва одним из факторов, способных «продавить» биткоин ниже $90 000.

«Оценивать или изучать — это то, что делает Вашингтон, когда не намерен решать вопрос», — прокомментировал опасения рынка президент и макростратег Bianco Research Джим Бьянко.

В декабре 2024 года CEO Satoshi Action Fund Деннис Портер пообещал организовать «волну SBR» на уровне штатов, в случае если центральные власти не поторопятся с реализацией инициативы.

В январе к лоббированию внедрения биткоин-резервов в регионах присоединился крупнейший публичный американский майнер MARA Holdings. Соответствующие законопроекты были выдвинуты во многих штатах, включая Юту, Южную Дакоту, Иллинойс, Огайо, Аризона, Юта, Техас и ряд других.

Однако по данным Bitcoin Laws, если Юта сохранят лидерство в принятии решения по созданию SBR, то в Монтане, Пенсильвании, Северной и Южной Дакотах, а также в Вайоминге законодательные инициативы потерпели неудачу.

According to Bitcoin Laws, among the US states, Utah's HB230 bill is leading in the Bitcoin reserve race, while Montana (MT), North Dakota (ND), Pennsylvania (PA), South Dakota (SD) and Wyoming (WY) have failed to pass or have failed in related digital asset bills.…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 24, 2025

В Сенате США Вайоминг представляет Синтия Ламмис — известная сторонница биткоина. Сенаторка подготовила законопроект, который позволяет создать SBR на федеральном уровне.

В сообществе отметили, что если подобную инициативу отклонили в «самом дружественном» к криптовалюте штате, то в Конгрессе ее «точно не поддержат».

A "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" is dead in Wyoming, the most Bitcoin-friendly state in America.

Yet Cynthia Lummis claims her federal bill with zero co-sponsors will pass Congress with hundreds of votes. If Wyoming won’t support it, D.C. certainly won’t.

Then why keep on? 🤔🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/kOnr5xbuzT
— Justin Bechler (@1914ad) February 18, 2025

Напомним, сооснователь BitMEX Артур Хэйес не исключил откат биткоина в диапазон $70 000-75 000 из-за разочарования политикой Трампа.

Arcus Chooses Stepfather Robinhood Chain, Leaving Biological Father dYdX Awkwardly Making Up for It

Robinhood launched its public mainnet, Robinhood Chain, a Layer 2 network built on Arbitrum. This move attracted major protocols like Uniswap and Chainlink. However, a new decentralized exchange, Arcus, developed by the dYdX team, became a focal point by choosing to launch on Robinhood Chain instead of the dYdX Chain. Arcus offers zero-fee, 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks and perpetual contracts. This decision sparked community concerns about dYdX Chain's future, dYdX's focus, and the value of the DYDX token, leading to a sharp price drop. dYdX founder Antonio Juliano clarified that dYdX Chain will continue operating but acknowledged Arcus as a separate, independent product. He mentioned future Arcus tokens might be partly allocated to the dYdX community. The dYdX Foundation reaffirmed that DYDX remains the governance token for dYdX Chain, with no current plans for token migration. The core question remains how dYdX Chain and DYDX token holders will benefit from Arcus's potential growth, creating uncertainty for existing stakeholders.

marsbit23m ago

Arcus Chooses Stepfather Robinhood Chain, Leaving Biological Father dYdX Awkwardly Making Up for It

marsbit23m ago

Arcus Chooses "Stepfather" Robinhood Chain, "Biological Father" dYdX Awkwardly Attempts to Salvage the Situation

Robinhood officially launched its own Layer 2 network, Robinhood Chain. In response, many major DeFi protocols like Uniswap and Chainlink announced integration. A key point of discussion was Arcus, a new decentralized exchange (DEX) developed by the dYdX team, which chose to launch on Robinhood Chain instead of the native dYdX Chain. Arcus offers 24/7, zero-fee trading of 95 tokenized stocks and perpetual contracts. This move sparked community concerns about dYdX Chain potentially being sidelined, causing DYDX token's price to drop over 12%. Critics questioned if dYdX Labs' focus is shifting to Arcus and how DYDX token holders would benefit from Arcus's future growth, especially as its founder mentioned a future Arcus token would allocate a portion to the dYdX community. dYdX founder Antonio Juliano clarified that dYdX Chain will continue operating, but acknowledged its deep decentralization involved trade-offs in performance and user experience. He stated Arcus is a separate product led by a new CEO, responding to market demands for faster, simpler platforms. The dYdX Foundation also confirmed DYDX's role remains unchanged for dYdX Chain governance and staking, with no plans for token migration. However, the core uncertainty remains: if Arcus succeeds, how will that value flow back to dYdX Chain and its DYDX token holders?

Odaily星球日报27m ago

Arcus Chooses "Stepfather" Robinhood Chain, "Biological Father" dYdX Awkwardly Attempts to Salvage the Situation

Odaily星球日报27m ago

Trillion-Dollar Credit Market Driven by Stablecoins, Constrained by Off-Chain Risk Management

The trillion-dollar private credit market, once exclusive to institutional investors, is being democratized by yield-bearing stablecoins, which function similarly to money market funds by pooling retail capital for investment in high-yield private loans. Protocols like Apollo's ACRED and Figure's YLDS tokenize credit funds, allowing seamless integration with DeFi for leverage and liquidity, rapidly growing the on-chain private credit sector to $5.87 billion. However, this innovation faces a fundamental risk:链下风控. The case of Goldfinch, which collapsed with $56 million trapped in Kenyan motorcycle loans, highlights the critical flaw. While capital allocation occurs on-chain, essential credit functions—due diligence, monitoring, and recovery—are offline and localized. Goldfinch lacked the physical infrastructure and local expertise to manage loans, leading to undetected fund diversion and defaults. The incident underscores that tokenization solves distribution but not the inherent, location-specific risks of credit underwriting. The sector's growth depends on building robust offline风控 frameworks alongside on-chain efficiency.

marsbit36m ago

Trillion-Dollar Credit Market Driven by Stablecoins, Constrained by Off-Chain Risk Management

marsbit36m ago

High-Yield, No Debt, No Dilution: Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Aggressively Promoting Preferred Stock Financing?

Bitcoin-backed preferred shares, led by companies like Strategy and followed by newer entrants such as Strive, have grown to a roughly $13 billion market in under two years. These instruments offer high yields, attracting significant capital. A 2026 report by BitcoinTreasuries.net and Apyx projects this segment could grow from nearly 1% to 3-5% of the global $1.3 trillion preferred share market by 2030, with long-term potential reaching 10%. This financial tool addresses a core dilemma for companies holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset. It allows firms like Michael Saylor's Strategy to raise long-term capital for purchasing more Bitcoin without diluting common shareholders or taking on debt with fixed repayment schedules. In exchange, preferred shareholders receive priority dividends, converting Bitcoin's volatility into a stable income product for yield-focused investors. Yields on these securities, ranging from 10.8% to 15.2%, far exceed traditional savings accounts. Strategy's issues dominate the market, with Strive's offering being a smaller player. The report identifies strong institutional demand, potentially reaching $10.9-$21.8 billion, but supply is constrained by the limited pool of corporate-held Bitcoin available as collateral—approximately 1.26 million BTC valued around $83 billion. A key safety feature is the high collateral coverage ratio of 3.8x to 4.5x, meaning each dollar of preferred equity is backed by $3.8-$4.5 in Bitcoin. Issuers require clean balance sheets and substantial scale. Risks are structural: companies like Strategy act as volatility amplifiers, and dividend sustainability relies on continued capital raises during Bitcoin price appreciation. However, both Strategy and Strive maintain cash reserves to cover at least 12 months of payments. The market is currently in a "0 to 1" phase where demand significantly outpaces supply, favoring early issuers.

marsbit47m ago

High-Yield, No Debt, No Dilution: Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Aggressively Promoting Preferred Stock Financing?

marsbit47m ago

Robinhood Layer 2 integration fuels 14% Uniswap price jump

Uniswap has deployed its V2, V3, V4, and UniswapX protocols on the Robinhood Chain, a new Layer 2 network built by Robinhood Crypto, where Uniswap will serve as the automated market maker (AMM). The integration, aimed at programmatic and AI-driven ecosystems, sparked a 14.2% surge in the UNI token's price and an 81% increase in daily trading volume over 24 hours, buoyed by a broader 2.3% crypto market rally. Technical analysis reveals a contrasting long-term bearish trend. Despite the short-term bounce, the weekly chart shows UNI broke below the key $4 support level, which has now turned into resistance, with a recent swing low at $2.316 in early June. While the RSI has moved above 50, indicating momentum, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has not recovered to June highs, suggesting a lack of sustained buying pressure. A Fibonacci retracement analysis places the current rally within a broader bearish structure. The liquidation heatmap shows a high concentration of leveraged short positions up to the $3.52 level, increasing the likelihood of a short-term price move towards $3.5. The analysis suggests traders could use a potential bounce to $3.5 or even $3.77 (the 78.6% retracement level) as a selling opportunity. The overall bearish bias remains intact unless UNI breaks above the $4.17 swing high. In summary, while the Robinhood news triggered a rally, it is viewed as a minor rebound within a dominant long-term downtrend.

ambcrypto53m ago

Robinhood Layer 2 integration fuels 14% Uniswap price jump