Биткоин завершает год коррекцией: настроения инвесторов упали до уровня перед победой Трампа

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-06-30Last updated on 2024-12-30

Индекс страха и жадности в криптовалютном секторе снизился до минимальных значений с середины октября на фоне падения цены биткоина в последние дни 2024 года.

Динамика индекса страха и жадности в течение года. Источник: alternative.me

По данным на 30 декабря, индикатор зафиксировал значение 65 пунктов — самый низкий показатель с 15 октября, хотя все еще остается в зоне «жадности». Снижение настроений происходит на фоне коррекции стоимости биткоина, который за последние 12 дней потерял 13,7% и торгуется ниже отметки $94 000.

1-дневный график BTC/USDT. Источник: скринер криптовалют Cryptovizor

Политический фактор

На протяжении ноября и декабря индекс стабильно держался выше 70 пунктов после победы избранного президента Дональда Трампа (Donald Trump) и успеха прокриптовалютных политиков на выборах в Сенат и Палату представителей США. 22 ноября индикатор достиг пикового значения в 94 пункта.

Мнения аналитиков

Маркус Тилен (Markus Thielen), глава исследовательского отдела 10x Research, отмечает, что многие участники рынка уверены в росте биткоина на 50-150% в 2025 году. По его мнению, самым неожиданным сценарием может стать внезапное достижение пика текущего бычьего рынка именно в момент максимальной уверенности трейдеров. Хотя некоторые аналитики прогнозируют параболический рост до инаугурации Трампа с последующей значительной коррекцией, Тилен указывает на необходимость тщательного мониторинга ключевых индикаторов в связи с ожидаемым увеличением волатильности.

Опытный трейдер Питер Брандт (Peter Brandt) поделился техническим анализом, указывающим на возможное повторение исторического паттерна движения цены биткоина. Согласно его схеме, после резкого роста (hump) следует снижение (slump), затем восстановление (bump), более глубокое падение (dump) и финальный рост (pump). Основатель CryptoQuant Ки Янг Джу (Ki Young Ju) выразил согласие с этой технической моделью.

График BTC/USD. Аналитика: Питер Брандт

Известный трейдер Titan of Crypto опубликовал график, который он назвал «дорожной картой» биткоина на 2025 год. Согласно представленному анализу по методу Вайкоффа, следует ожидать продолжения роста цены актива до уровня около $150 000.

1-дневный график BTC/USD. Аналитика: Titan of Crypto

Bitcoin Begins an Independent Market Move: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

Bitcoin has begun to show independent price action, rebounding from around $57,742 to surpass $60,000. This move was initially triggered by comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying inflation risks and was subsequently amplified by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, which reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes. The rally was further fueled by a short squeeze, with approximately $281 million in short positions being liquidated as the price climbed. This created buying pressure and accelerated the upward move. Altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana, have also participated in the rally, indicating a broader, though not yet euphoric, risk-on sentiment returning to the crypto market. However, several key indicators suggest caution. The recovery is not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Despite the price rebound, the options market still shows a high premium for downside protection, implying traders remain wary. The short squeeze itself provides a temporary boost but requires sustained buying from spot markets, such as ETFs, to maintain momentum. Furthermore, Bitcoin's trajectory remains sensitive to macroeconomic data; any resurgence in inflation concerns or a shift to a more hawkish Fed stance could quickly reverse recent gains.

marsbit13m ago

Bitcoin Begins an Independent Market Move: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

marsbit13m ago

Dialogue with Yihui Capital, SoundAI Technology, Ling Universe, and Zhongbo Jili: Opportunities and Challenges in the AI Smart Hardware Track

On June 28, 2026, an event titled "New Opportunities in AI Hardware: The Battle for Interactive Entry Points Begins" was held in Beijing. It featured a report from ITJuzi and discussions with experts from SoundAI, Ling Universe, One Reed Capital, and Zhongbo Juli on the opportunities and challenges in China's AI hardware sector. Key report findings highlight the sector's intense activity: 327 out of 431 startups founded post-2023 have secured funding, with 179 investments in H1 2026 alone. The landscape is dominated by embodied intelligent robots, while wearable tech like smart rings and AI glasses shows rapid growth. Geographically, Shenzhen leads, leveraging its superior hardware supply chain, followed by Beijing and Shanghai. The overarching trend is for companies to focus on micro-innovations within specific scenarios rather than reinventing foundational technology. Industry leaders shared several critical insights: 1. **Balancing Innovation & Market Readiness**: Entrepreneurs face the "hammer looking for a nail" dilemma. Success requires balancing technical capability with user acceptance, cost control, and incremental design improvements rather than chasing disruptive innovation. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: The future interactive entry point may not be a single super-device but a mix of universal terminals and specialized, scenario-specific hardware. While large companies have ecosystem advantages, startups can win by deeply targeting vertical markets and specific user groups. 3. **Core Challenges & Business Models**: Key hurdles include deep understanding of AI models and navigating non-transparent hardware supply chains. Viable business models may involve selling hardware at cost and generating revenue through software subscriptions, but this requires tight control over both hardware BOM and model inference costs. 4. **The Road to Commercialization**: The ultimate test is market validation—achieving sales growth and sustainable cash flow. Companies must find the right application scenario, use edge computing effectively, and close the loop from technology to commercial success. 5. **The Future of Interaction**: Proactive, context-aware interaction is the next frontier, though it's currently limited by issues like model hallucinations and environmental perception. The near-term focus should be on identifying target users and creating a coherent experience in specific domains, such as health wearables. In summary, to succeed in the competitive AI hardware arena, companies must strategically choose their niche, build a team with the right geographical advantages (e.g., leveraging Shenzhen's supply chain), and most importantly, execute a flawless commercialization strategy that translates technology into market-accepted products and sustainable business growth.

marsbit30m ago

Dialogue with Yihui Capital, SoundAI Technology, Ling Universe, and Zhongbo Jili: Opportunities and Challenges in the AI Smart Hardware Track

marsbit30m ago

CryptoQuant Founder: The Cost to Double BTC Has Increased by 20,000 Times, Where Will the $100 Billion Buying Power Come From?

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju analyzes Bitcoin's current capital challenge. He notes that the cryptocurrency market has grown too large for retail-driven momentum alone to generate massive price increases as in past cycles. His calculations show that in 2011, approximately $2.7 million in capital inflow could push BTC's price up by 550x, whereas the current cycle requires an estimated $101 billion in new capital just for a 100% price increase. This shift underscores that sustaining a bull run now depends on attracting large-scale, long-term institutional capital rather than short-term speculative trading. Recent outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling nearly $10 billion since May, highlight the fragility of current demand and challenge the narrative of deep institutional support. While surveys indicate continued institutional interest, these entities prioritize regulated products, risk management, and portfolio integration over speculative gains. For the next significant bull market, Bitcoin must transition to being a core macro asset. The key drivers are no longer just more buyers, but capital allocation from larger, slower-moving entities like wealth advisors, corporate treasuries, banks, and sovereign wealth funds. This new phase pits Bitcoin against other major asset classes like AI for a share of institutional capital, making its growth trajectory dependent on sustained, high-quality inflows from diversified financial balance sheets.

marsbit34m ago

CryptoQuant Founder: The Cost to Double BTC Has Increased by 20,000 Times, Where Will the $100 Billion Buying Power Come From?

marsbit34m ago

BTC Market Pulse: Week 28

Bitcoin is showing signs of structural stabilization, shifting from aggressive distribution toward equilibrium. Price momentum has recovered from recent lows alongside a reduction in spot market selling pressure. While spot volumes remain low, indicating consolidation, derivatives activity is rising with increased futures open interest and aggressive bullish positioning. Options market sentiment is cooling, with less urgency for downside protection. Institutional flows via US spot ETFs show contracting outflows, suggesting a potential end to recent divestment trends. On-chain data reveals increased network engagement through rising active addresses and transfer volumes. Although many holders face unrealized losses, the slowdown in profit/loss realization points to underlying long-term conviction. Short-term capital is becoming more active, which may increase volatility, but overall profitability metrics have improved, supporting cautious optimism. In summary, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase. Upward momentum has softened, but futures stability and strong profitability underpin resilience. This is balanced against mounting sell-side pressure and defensive options positioning, leaving the market in a state of underlying strength tempered by growing caution.

insights.glassnode1h ago

insights.glassnode1h ago

When Big Tech Donates Stocks to the 'Trump Accounts', Which Assets Will Benefit?

"The 'Trump Accounts' program has officially launched, establishing tax-advantaged savings and investment accounts for children under 18 in the US. The accounts receive initial government funding and private donations, with Dell founder Michael Dell contributing $6.25 billion. Former President Trump publicly endorsed Dell at the launch event, boosting its stock price. The US Treasury now allows approved stock donations to these accounts, prompting a donation of SpaceX shares from its president. Account funds are primarily invested in ETFs tracking the S&P 500 index, creating a potential long-term capital inflow into US markets. Key operational partners include BNY Mellon as financial agent and Robinhood as the designated broker and app developer, positioning them to gain millions of potential lifelong financial customers. Early corporate donors, like Dell, are receiving significant presidential endorsement. The program aims to become a long-term wealth-building vehicle for American youth, similar to retirement accounts, with its ultimate impact dependent on future scale and participation."

Odaily星球日报1h ago

When Big Tech Donates Stocks to the 'Trump Accounts', Which Assets Will Benefit?