特朗普赢了，MAGA 币却输了

链捕手Published on 2024-11-08Last updated on 2024-11-08

作者：CMed，BlockBeats

 

可以被称作是 2024 年 Web3 最性感的叙事「Trump 成为第一位比特币总统」在美区时间 11 月 5 日晚间落下帷幕，比特币目前来看也放量突破了持续了半年的宽幅震荡区间，突破了前期高点 73700 美元附近，最高触及 76000 美元。

在市场传统认知中，与 Trump 关联最深的 Trump meme 币会随着 Trump 当选的消息应声大涨，但有趣的是，在 Trump 当选 Web3 狂欢的 11 月 6 日，只要不涨就会出现在主流交易所的跌幅榜的时候，Trump 系列的 meme 币在当选当天没有产生突出的表现，反而出现了「腰斩」的情况。

例如地址 0x2f6...1Be78 在昨天上午懂王选票占据较大优势的 FOMO 情绪下，投入近 25 万美金以均价 $3.55 高点买入 7 万枚 TRUMP，目前已浮亏 8.8 万美金（约 35.5%）。

为什么跌？

从 Trump 系列的 meme 币发行以来的表现来看，以 Trump 为例，在 Trump 竞选的前夕，价格已经处于相对的低位。很有趣的一点是，当我们观察 Trump 目前已经公布的账户来看，五月份至今，Trump 的加密地址账户所属了三百多万美元，主要的亏损来自于 Trump 同名 meme 币，数量并没有减少，但是随着价格的缩水，Trump 地址的资产也大幅缩水。

在 Trump 竞选成功后，当然有「利好散尽」的预期，但是以 Trump 同名代币为例，他并没有明显的涨幅后就出现了「腰斩」，这显然是不符合常理的。

政治系列 meme 没有未来了吗？

而我们反观一些最近新出现的政治类 meme，例如 Pnut、D.O.G.E，并没有出现像 Trump、MAGA 之类的明显的回落，反而有所上涨。

而 Pnut 和 Trump、MAGA 这类的 meme 不完全一样，Trump、MAGA 更像是「直给」的政治 meme 叙事，深扒其背后的故事，我们只能反映出这体现了对于 Trump 的支持，而 Pnut 的故事则更可以深挖。

Pnut 是七年多前机械工程师 Mark Longo 在目睹一只小松鼠的母亲遭遇车祸不幸身亡而将其带回家饲养的小宠物的名字「Peanut」，而在 10 月 30 日纽约州环境保护厅的官员在没有搜索领的情况下，逮捕了 Peanut 并实施了安乐死。

Peanut 被认为是「非法饲养的野生动物」，而大众并不认可，美国讽刺新闻网站巴比伦蜜蜂（Babylon Bee）表示，「戴着 MAGA 帽子的激进松鼠开始起义。」Elon Musk 也多次在社交媒体发文声援 Peanut，这场关于 Peanut 的风波被发教程异常对于民主党的讨伐活动，甚至是政治较量的舆论武器。

从这个角度我们可以看出来，其实政治系列的 meme 并没有终结，只是单纯的对于 Trump 声援的 meme 的叙事并不够「性感」。

有趣的是，「博彩预测平台」PolyMarket 和 Trump 系列的 meme 其实在一定程度上成为了精品，投资 Trump 系列的 meme 还不如在 PolyMarket 上下注 Trump 获胜的底层逻辑是一样的，PolyMarket 在 2024 年的交易量和预测事件数量上都有很大的提升，这或许也能解释长时间以来 Trump 系列 meme 币价的低迷。

meme 还是 DeFi？Trump 上台后的加密分岔路

在市场中很多的 degen 眼中，Trump 登顶成为美国历史上第一位「比特币总统」这一伟大叙事肯定会跑出来很多「金狗」，在当天 degen 们在推文上热衷于找各种各样的「角度」。

例如 JD Vance 的狗 Atlas 参与投票，可能被任命的新的 Sec Chair 被称为「加密母亲」的 Hester，最终也没有摆脱「PVP」的逻辑，在市值到达几百万美元市值后迅速回落随后归零。很多「钻石手 degen」都在当天 PVP 失败。

把目光从 DEX 转向 CEX 时，市场情绪则完全不同，CEX 的情绪非常热烈，被市场骂了大半年的「归零山寨」均出现了非常不错的涨幅。在 Trump 上任的这一天内，「链上野庄」似乎消失了，很多人认为：「监管松下来，能在台面上赚钱，就确实不需要做链上野庄了」。

具有协议收入的 DeFi 代币也很大程度上摆脱了对于被认定为「证券」的忧虑，Sky（原 MakerDAO）创始人 Rune Christensen 在社交媒体发文表示，「特朗普胜选将推动 DeFi 的真正持续复兴，用户数量增加 10 倍的可能性会大大增加，因为与加密领域的其他方面相比，DeFi 从美国监管的不确定性减少中受益最大。」

这些 DeFi 代币在 Trump 当选都收获了不错的涨幅，Uniswap 最大收获了 46% 的涨幅，Ethena 最大收获了 72% 的涨幅，Jito 最大收获了 63% 的涨幅，Lido DAO 最大收获了 56% 的涨幅，截至发文时有少许回落。

或许在不远的将来，我们就可以看到「牛回速归」，CEX 中的流动性重新变得充沛，链上的热钱不那么活跃。meme 可能不再是稍微有点角度就能跑到两千万美元的市值的捡钱时刻，而是需要更性感更深刻的叙事来带动共识的成长。

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