Пользователи Polymarket лишились $270 000 из-за освобождения Павла Дурова

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-06-29Last updated on 2024-08-29

В среду, 28 августа, французские власти освободили под залог основателя и гендиректора Telegram. Это решение застало врасплох многих пользователей платформы Polymarket, которые ставили на то, что Павел Дуров будет под арестом до октября 2024 года.

Напомним, что вчера Дурову предъявили официальное обвинение, после чего он был освобождён под залог в размере €5 млн с обязательством дважды в неделю являться в отделение полиции. Кроме того, ему запретили выезжать из Франции.

Досрочное освобождение CEO Telegram стало неожиданностью для пользователей Polymarket, которые считали, что он выйдет из тюрьмы в августе с вероятностью менее 30%. Большинство игроков было уверено, что это произойдёт только к октябрю. Однако всего за несколько часов до того, как французские власти объявили, что Дурова выпустят под залог, ставки на вероятность освобождения в августе выросло до 50%.

В общей сложности пользователи Polymarket потеряли $270 000, сделав ставку на август. Однако один из игроков под ником Champ заработал $26 138 на досрочном освобождении Павла Дурова.

Интересно, что теперь пользователи Polymarket ставят на то, покинет ли СЕО Telegram Францию, несмотря на запрет. Пока в это верят только 6% игроков платформы.

Bitcoin Begins an Independent Market Move: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

Bitcoin has begun to show independent price action, rebounding from around $57,742 to surpass $60,000. This move was initially triggered by comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying inflation risks and was subsequently amplified by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, which reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes. The rally was further fueled by a short squeeze, with approximately $281 million in short positions being liquidated as the price climbed. This created buying pressure and accelerated the upward move. Altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana, have also participated in the rally, indicating a broader, though not yet euphoric, risk-on sentiment returning to the crypto market. However, several key indicators suggest caution. The recovery is not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Despite the price rebound, the options market still shows a high premium for downside protection, implying traders remain wary. The short squeeze itself provides a temporary boost but requires sustained buying from spot markets, such as ETFs, to maintain momentum. Furthermore, Bitcoin's trajectory remains sensitive to macroeconomic data; any resurgence in inflation concerns or a shift to a more hawkish Fed stance could quickly reverse recent gains.

marsbit10m ago

Bitcoin Begins an Independent Market Move: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

marsbit10m ago

Dialogue with Yihui Capital, SoundAI Technology, Ling Universe, and Zhongbo Jili: Opportunities and Challenges in the AI Smart Hardware Track

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marsbit27m ago

Dialogue with Yihui Capital, SoundAI Technology, Ling Universe, and Zhongbo Jili: Opportunities and Challenges in the AI Smart Hardware Track

marsbit27m ago

CryptoQuant Founder: The Cost to Double BTC Has Increased by 20,000 Times, Where Will the $100 Billion Buying Power Come From?

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marsbit31m ago

CryptoQuant Founder: The Cost to Double BTC Has Increased by 20,000 Times, Where Will the $100 Billion Buying Power Come From?

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BTC Market Pulse: Week 28

Bitcoin is showing signs of structural stabilization, shifting from aggressive distribution toward equilibrium. Price momentum has recovered from recent lows alongside a reduction in spot market selling pressure. While spot volumes remain low, indicating consolidation, derivatives activity is rising with increased futures open interest and aggressive bullish positioning. Options market sentiment is cooling, with less urgency for downside protection. Institutional flows via US spot ETFs show contracting outflows, suggesting a potential end to recent divestment trends. On-chain data reveals increased network engagement through rising active addresses and transfer volumes. Although many holders face unrealized losses, the slowdown in profit/loss realization points to underlying long-term conviction. Short-term capital is becoming more active, which may increase volatility, but overall profitability metrics have improved, supporting cautious optimism. In summary, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase. Upward momentum has softened, but futures stability and strong profitability underpin resilience. This is balanced against mounting sell-side pressure and defensive options positioning, leaving the market in a state of underlying strength tempered by growing caution.

insights.glassnode1h ago

insights.glassnode1h ago

When Big Tech Donates Stocks to the 'Trump Accounts', Which Assets Will Benefit?

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Odaily星球日报1h ago

When Big Tech Donates Stocks to the 'Trump Accounts', Which Assets Will Benefit?