今年价值低于1美元的三大加密货币,有望在 2024 年让你实现财务自由

币界网Published on 2024-08-12Last updated on 2024-08-12

币界网报道：

加密货币市场目前正在经历重大变化，尽管预期会出现牛市，但比特币却停滞不前。这为山寨币打开了大门，而 Pantera Capital 暗示市场将倾向于这些新星，它们可能会抢尽风头。在这个不断变化的市场中，Optimism (OP)、Ondo (ONDO) 和 Blur (BLUR) 被认为是有望在 2024 年实现财务自由的山寨币。它们在未来几个月的表现将是确定加密货币未来方向的关键。

Blur (BLUR)：超出预期尽管有大量代币解锁，Blur (BLUR) 的链上指标仍看涨，表明购买兴趣和市场活动强劲。Blur (BLUR) 代免费近裙 +V: JQLT0192币正在攀升，突破月度高点，吸引了众多重量级投资者。Blur (BLUR) 目前在 0.1419 美元和 0.1506 美元之间徘徊。10 日移动平均线为 0.1515 美元，100 日移动平均线为 0.160 美元。支撑位在 0.132 美元和 0.125 美元，阻力位在 0.15 美元和 0.1550 美元。Blur (BLUR) 可能会继续上涨趋势，并有可能达到更高的阻力位。投资者的浓厚兴趣和强劲的链上统计数据为该代币的发展轨迹描绘了一幅乐观的图景，即使它在市场的波涛汹涌中穿行。但该代币尚未脱离困境。它仍然必须应对潜在的抛售，并在不可预测的市场动态中保持步伐。

乐观主义 (OP)：在波动中保持盈利乐观主义 (OP) 因其在以太坊平台上加快交易速度和降低成本的能力而受到关注。该网络旨在降低与以太坊交易相关的费用和延迟，这对每个感到压力的人来说都是一个改变游戏规则的因素。乐观主义 (OP) 代币的价格波动范围在 1.35 美元至 1.52 美元之间。10 天和 100 天移动平均线表明市场情绪激烈竞争。支撑位为 1.30 美元和 1.19 美元，阻力位为 1.50 美元和 1.60 美元，这表明市场波动但可能为交易者带来回报。

Ondo (ONDO)：在加密货币领域中突飞猛进作为 Coinbase 支持的证券代币化项目 Ondo Finance 和 Flux Finance 的原生代币，Ondo (ONDO) 已成为加密货币领域的热门话题，在其代币解锁后飙升了 2,500%。Ondo (ONDO) 的交易价格在 0.7328 美元和 0.8088 美元之间，支撑位在 0.6355 美元和 0.5077 美元，阻力位在 0.5103 美元。无论对其长期生存能力存在何种担忧，Ondo (ONDO) 近期的表现和对代币化日益增长的兴趣都表明其前景光明。然而，这些利润的可持续性仍然是一个关键问题，Ondo (ONDO) 的成功将取决于它对投资者的吸引力以及它在动荡的加密货币市场中的韧性。

独行者疾，众行者远！

Borrowed Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money

"Rented Faith: How Much of Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money?" Bitcoin ETF inflows are often seen as a barometer of institutional conviction. However, week-to-week analysis reveals they are primarily driven by a hidden arbitrage trade rather than directional bullishness. This is the cash-and-carry trade: buying the ETF while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on the CME to lock in the price difference (basis). This delta-neutral activity registers as ETF inflows but reflects a rate-seeking, not price-betting, strategy. Data shows weekly ETF flow volatility is closely tied to hedge fund ("leveraged funds") short positions on CME futures, with a correlation of 0.70. About half of weekly flow variation can be explained by this single factor. In contrast, Bitcoin's weekly price changes have no statistically significant power to predict flows. Crucially, while this arbitrage trade dominates weekly *fluctuations*, it is not the main component of the cumulative *stock*. Of the ~$55 billion total net inflow, the estimated net arbitrage position is only about $1 billion. The vast majority is steady, directional buying averaging ~$400 million per week. Thus, ETF flows overstate the *volatility* of belief, not its *level*. The "rented" arbitrage capital churns, while "owned" directional capital forms the bedrock. This arbitrage trade has been unwinding for two years, with hedge fund shorts peaking at ~$14 billion in late 2024 and falling to ~$4.5 billion. Recent outflows align with basis compression, signaling the trade's exit, not a loss of faith. For Ethereum ETFs, the same dynamic is weaker due to negative carry from forgone staking yield. The key takeaway: To interpret ETF flows, watch the basis vs. Treasury yields and CME hedge fund net shorts. They reveal how much of the weekly "demand" headline is driven by rented, rate-seeking capital versus real conviction.

链捕手3m ago

Borrowed Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money

链捕手3m ago

Bernstein Research Report Analysis: HBM Prices Must Double Next Year, Memory Becomes a Burden for AI

Bernstein's report indicates that High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) prices must double (increase 2-2.5x) in 2027. This is because, while standard DRAM prices have surged approximately 4.5x, HBM prices remain locked in annual contracts, making standard DRAM significantly more profitable per wafer for memory makers (2x the revenue, nearly 3x the gross profit). To maintain capacity allocation for HBM, its price must rise sharply. A critical consequence is that HBM is sold packaged within Nvidia GPUs. To protect its 75% gross margin, Nvidia is likely to pass on HBM cost increases by raising GPU/system prices by about 4x the HBM cost hike. Combined with standard DRAM and NAND price increases, this could raise total AI capital expenditure for cloud providers by around 30%. The report maintains Outperform ratings on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, significantly raising price targets due to expected upward earnings revisions. KIOXIA is the main loser, having no HBM exposure. MediaTek could benefit if cloud providers seek more ASIC-based alternatives to avoid Nvidia's markup. Valuations have shifted to a P/E basis, reflecting record-high profitability and cash generation expected in this cycle.

marsbit15m ago

Bernstein Research Report Analysis: HBM Prices Must Double Next Year, Memory Becomes a Burden for AI

marsbit15m ago

The 'Crisis Helmsman' of Financial Markets Passes Away: Reflecting on Greenspan's Federal Reserve Career

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, known as the 'crisis helmsman' of financial markets, has passed away at 100. His nearly 19-year tenure spanned four presidencies, from the 1987 stock market crash to the internet boom. Initially hailed as the 'Maestro' for his crisis management—famously intervening after Black Monday and during the LTCM collapse—his legacy became intertwined with the 2008 financial crisis. His market-friendly philosophy and the "Greenspan Put," an expectation of Fed support during downturns, were praised for fostering stability and growth in the 1990s but later criticized for encouraging excessive risk-taking and contributing to the housing bubble. Greenspan's career encapsulates the central debate of his era: whether markets can self-correct and if central banks should actively deflate asset bubbles. His passing reignites questions about the fine line between stabilizing markets and inadvertently sowing the seeds for the next crisis.

marsbit19m ago

The 'Crisis Helmsman' of Financial Markets Passes Away: Reflecting on Greenspan's Federal Reserve Career

marsbit19m ago

Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

Title: Two Giants "Credit" Surge: Loan Balances of 99 Billion vs. 146 Billion USD, Brazil Emerges as Main Battlefield Summary: The article compares the rapid expansion of credit businesses by two major e-commerce and fintech players, Sea (via Monee) and Mercado Libre (via Mercado Pago), in overseas markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America, contrasting with a slowing domestic Chinese credit market. Using Q1 2026 financial data, it highlights their significant growth. Sea's Monee reached a loan balance of $99 billion, up 71% year-over-year (YoY), contributing 17.5% to Sea's total revenue. Mercado Pago's loan balance hit $146 billion, up 87% YoY, contributing 45% to its parent company's revenue. Both maintained stable risk metrics (e.g., Monee's 90+ day NPL at 1.1%) despite rapid scaling. Brazil is identified as a key and accelerating growth market for both. Sea's Brazilian operations saw loan volumes exceed $10 billion, growing 250% YoY, with SPayLater GMV penetration still low (~10%) indicating high potential. Sea also secured a key Brazilian financial credit license (SCFI). Mercado Libre's Brazil segment contributed over half (54%) of total group revenue, with its credit business there generating $11.24 billion in revenue, up 89% YoY and accounting for 12.7% of global revenue. Mercado Pago's credit portfolio, especially credit cards (46% of loans, +105% YoY), is a strategic focus, described as crucial as building logistics was a decade ago. Its net interest margin after loss (NIMAL) remains high at 17.8%. The article concludes that while Brazil presents immense opportunities, the success is largely driven by these integrated "e-commerce + fintech" giants with proprietary transaction data and ecosystems, making it challenging for standalone fintech players to compete effectively.

链捕手25m ago

Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

链捕手25m ago

Research Report Analysis: Is Intel Making a Comeback with Apple? Bernstein's Calculations Show the Right Direction, but the Price Is Already Overvalued

Bernstein analyst Stacy A. Rasgon published a report on June 18 regarding Intel, assessing the potential impact of recent political support for a US-based PC chip design and manufacturing collaboration between Apple and Intel. The report views this as a significant signal for the foundry landscape shift but concludes the initial financial contribution would be minimal. Key conclusions: 1) An Apple deal is seen as a small-scale "proof of concept." Even if Intel wins 40% of Apple's premium notebook chip orders (~5 million units/year), Bernstein estimates it would generate only about $500M in annual revenue and ~$0.03 EPS, negligible against Intel's ~$55B revenue. 2) Political encouragement is not equivalent to enforceable mandates. Winning orders ultimately depends on Intel demonstrating competitive technology (like its 18A node), cost, and reliable supply. 3) The path from validation to large-scale production involves significant challenges, capital investment, and time. Due to these uncertainties, Bernstein maintains a Market-Perform (Hold) rating with a $100 price target, implying potential downside from the ~$121.10 price at the report date. The analysis highlights the tension between near-term validation value—serving as a crucial trust signal for Intel's foundry ambitions and US supply chain resilience—and the long-term opportunity to attract larger cloud and AI chip customers. The investment thesis hinges on successful 18A execution and sustained policy support, not on immediate financial gains from Apple.

marsbit49m ago

Research Report Analysis: Is Intel Making a Comeback with Apple? Bernstein's Calculations Show the Right Direction, but the Price Is Already Overvalued

marsbit49m ago

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