从叙事和估值出发，分析 8 个可能会“失败”的代币

链捕手Published on 2024-07-30Last updated on 2024-07-30

原文来源：ardizor X 账号

作者：ardizor, 加密研究员

编译：Felix, PANews

 

在购买任何代币之前，明智的投资者至少应该分析以下关键因素：

  • 市值（MC）
  • FDV
  • 未来解锁情况
  • 代币需求
  • 叙事

该类分析将有助于确定代币是否值得持有，以及是否具备上涨潜力。但98%的山寨币注定要失败，因为它们根本没有任何潜力。比如，如果你在2021年11月投资1万美元AXS ，那么今天就只剩下382.5美元。

此外，从下图可看出，在90天内，只有TON、SOL、Memes和BTC表现出显著的增长。其他所有所谓的“高技术”山寨币都纷纷下跌。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

如果不想看到自己的钱随着时间的流逝而消失，那么应该避免持有以下三种山寨币类型。

  • 过时和被高估的项目

这类项目通常没有技术，因为都是虚构出来的。随着时间的推移，它们与ETH相比价值会逐渐降低，就像现在看到的那样。

  • 与过去叙事相关的项目

典型特点是高FDV，低市值和持续的抛压。这些代币已经失去了叙事相关性，并正在逐渐衰落。

  • 价格虚高的代币

这类代币的供应受到团队或风投的严格控制，导致估值被操纵。

基于上述三种类型，加密研究员ardizor盘点了8种注定会“失败”的代币。

PANews注：本文旨在提供市场信息，不构成投资意见，DYOR。

XMR

你们可能都知道门罗币（Monero）的匿名性和交易的隐私性。

XMR是最古老的加密代币之一。然而，自2022年以来，XMR的价格并没有太大变化，而且未来可能会像Tornado Cash一样遭禁。

最重要的是，Binance今年将其下架，这或许是“压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草”。

短线高估，前景黯淡，风险高。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

FLOW

Flow是一条权益证明区块链，旨在成为Web3和开放元宇宙的基础，支持消费者规模的去中心化应用程序、NFT、DeFi、DAO、PFP项目等。

不幸的是，市场对该项目的兴趣已经消退，导致其价值下降。

这是由于来自风投的持续抛压，以及围绕NFT的炒作减少。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

XRP

XRP专为快速和低成本的全球交易而设计。然而，这是BTC的不必要分叉，估值过高。

XRP有一群狂热的追随者，但还没开发者Charles Hoskinson也很古怪，作者觉得他有“精神分裂”。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

AXS

此处列举的不仅适用于Axie Infinity，还适用于其他资深P2E代币，如SAND和MANA 。

市场对其的兴奋感已经消失，而且FDV相当高。

围绕这些代币的炒作已经消失，价格复苏无望。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

DYDX

DYDX的关键挑战在于代币解锁。

这些解锁机制的设计旨在稳定抛压，但导致价格持续下跌。

许多项目都面临这个问题，所以如果项目想要生存下去，审查解锁时间表至关重要。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

WLD

WLD本质上是一种虚构的代币，其供应量受到主要参与者和内部人员的严格管理，他们总是在抛售代币。胜算并不在散户这边。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

BCH

比特币现金（BCH）是BTC的一个分叉，旨在增加区块大小并同时处理更多交易。

然而，BCH本质上与比特币相似，没有重大变化。基本上，这只是一个假的比特币。为什么需要假的比特币？有看到一个真正聪明的人支持它。XRP不是最糟糕的代币，但ETH或BTC更好。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

ADA

ADA与XRP类似，但没有任何诉讼问题。

ADA拥有一个疯狂的社区，即使价格跌至0.0000001美元，他们也会牢牢持有自己的代币。

从叙事和估值出发，盘点8个可能会“失败”的代币

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