SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-15Last updated on 2024-07-15

Abstract

前总统Trump在宾州演讲时所发生的暗杀事件无疑成为周末的新闻焦点，上周五BTC现货ETF出现大幅流入，总计3.1亿美元，这是自6月5日以来最大的资金流入。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

前总统 Trump 在宾州演讲时所发生的暗杀事件无疑成为周末的新闻焦点，在暗杀未遂后，这位前总统的胜选概率进一步跃升至 70% 左右。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

虽然美国可能是一个观点日益两极化的分裂国家，但在涉及国土安全和政治人物攻击的问题上，国家是团结一致的。1981 年对前总统 Reagan 的暗杀未遂很可能促成他随后在选举中的压倒性胜利，而这次大选距离 11 月投票只剩几个月，更有机会重演同样情况。现在看来选举结果几乎取决于 Trump 能否维持当前优势，自由派媒体和反对派在接下来的竞选活动中将不得不收敛其强硬批评。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

宏观市场可能会以 Trump 胜选作为预设情况进行交易，这对所有资产类别都会产生重大影响。虽然我们不是政治专家，但相信 Trump 政府的第二个任期可能会采取更强硬的政策。

目前，共和党和 Trump 的支持者认为：

  • 反对派试图进行政治猎巫，将一名前总统判处 700 年刑期

  • 近期非公民投票权的推动可能会使 Trump 的对手获得大量的移民投票

  • 光天化日之下出现企图暗杀事件，安全措施显然有严重缺失

如果 Trump 再次当选，市场可能会预期：

  • 激进的财政支出和挥霍的税收政策

  • 中美紧张局势进一步升级

  • 对欧洲施加更多压力，要求支付超过 2000 亿的北约保护费，特别是考虑到俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突仍在持续

  • 封锁非法移民

  • 类似第一任期时最高法院转向保守派，对关键公务员、政府雇员和其他华盛顿生态系统人员进行激进的“清理”

激进的支出计划将使本已严峻的债券供应和预算赤字情况进一步恶化，债券收益率很可能出现熊陡走势，Trump 的第一任期内， 10 年期收益率在 18 个月内上升了约 200 个基点。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

在 Trump 可能获得第二任期之际，美国经济增长和通胀双双放缓。上周的 CPI 数据由于住房成本终于放缓而降至 2021 年以来的最低水平，核心 CPI 自 5 月份上涨 0.1% ，是 3 年来最慢的增速，而整体指标也自疫情以来首次出现下滑。

市场绝对将上周四的 CPI 视为当前周期的分水岭，市场预期 9 月降息的可能性如今高达 95% ，而我们可以想像 Trump 政府肯定会向美联储施压，要求其在 2025 年进行更激进的利率宽松政策，作为下一波刺激经济的手段。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

谈到经济放缓，美国大型银行的财报证实了消费者情况普遍恶化，大多数银行预留了更多现金来应对客户拖欠贷款，随著消费者耗尽疫情期间的储蓄，花旗/富国银行/摩根大通的贷款冲销都有所上升。小型银行的信用卡拖欠率已升至  30 年来的最高水平，整个银行业的信用卡拖欠率也升至 10 年来的最高水平。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

上周五的密大消费者信心指数也连续 4 个月低于预期，受访者表示就业市场疲软加上物价居高不下抑制了整体信心。官方调查报告指出：“近一半的消费者自发地抱怨高物价正在侵蚀他们的生活水平，逼近两年前创下的历史最高纪录。”

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

在美国以外，上周的经济数据也证实了中国经济的复苏乏力，CPI 年增 0.2% ，低于预期的 0.4% ， 6 月份贷款和信贷增长均创历史新低，终端用户需求疲弱，加上新增人民币贷款、社会融资规模和进口数据（同比 -2.3% ，低于预期的 + 2.5% ）同样低迷，在进入 7 月三中全会的同时，中国政府无疑对复苏的步伐感到失望。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

回到美国股市，SPX 指数持续徘徊在历史高点附近，空头纷纷投降。摩根大通估计，多头股票期货部位已回到过去 10 年来的最高水平（相对于未平仓量的百分比），而现金配置已突破 2000 年以来的最低水平。然而，尽管股价走高，全球新股供应仍然连续第三年为负，IPO 市场对大多数发行人仍然处于关闭状态。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

有趣的是，宏观空头可能会惊讶地发现，债券与股票的相关性（收益率并不总是与股票价格一起单向变动）显示，过去两年美国经济从未陷入衰退的风险，这种相关性在软著陆、不著陆和强劲数据爆发期间偶尔出现的扩张预期之间摇摆。这提醒我们，虽然宏观资产极具前瞻性和自我修正能力，但通常是资产之间的相互作用才能讲述完整的故事，而不是单一变量的绝对水平（如收益率曲线倒挂）。请密切关注收益率何时与股价一起下跌，那是市场终于相信我们正走向放缓阶段的第一个真正迹象。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

在加密货币方面，价格显然得益于 Trump 胜选概率的上升，BTC 反弹至 6.25 万美元左右，在上一波抛售后反弹超过 10% 。The Bitcoin Conference 确认 Trump 仍会出席 7 月底在 Nashville 举行的会议，如其竞选声明所宣称的将会继续支持加密货币。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

在资金流方面，上周五 BTC 现货 ETF 出现大幅流入，总计 3.1 亿美元，这是自 6 月 5 日以来最大的资金流入，根据 Arkham 的数据，投资者相信德国政府已经出售了所有 BTC 而回到逢低买入模式，尽管如此，市场仍需应对 Mt. Gox 的还款问题，预计将有约 14 万个 BTC（价值 85 亿美元）冲击市场，不过隧道的尽头总有光，即将到来的 9 月降息和 Trump 可能胜选预计将为加密货币提供进一步的支持。

价格走势方面，令人放心的是 BTC 在最近的抛售中成功守住了 5 万美元区域，这是 1 月份 BTC 获批后的突破区域，市场情绪可能会转向卖出看跌期权/逢低买入。

祝各位交易顺利！

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版：Crossing the Rubicon

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Related Reads

UNDP and DFINITY to Collaborate on AI Infrastructure Development

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the DFINITY Foundation have announced a partnership focused on sovereign cloud infrastructure and decentralized artificial intelligence (AI). They will explore how these technologies can be applied in government projects and digital transformation for public authorities, civil society organizations, and UNDP initiatives. DFINITY provides decentralized cloud and blockchain infrastructure, while UNDP focuses on sustainable development and public sector support. The collaboration will progress along three main tracks. Through the SDG Blockchain Accelerator, UNDP country offices will test sovereign cloud infrastructure, AI development tools, and decentralized AI applications for development projects. The Future of Work Academy will assist civil society organizations in building and testing their own applications. The Government Blockchain Academy will work with governments to develop pilot solutions aligned with local and national priorities. The projects will utilize DFINITY's Cloud Engines and Caffeine AI platform, enabling organizations to build and maintain applications in a secure digital environment managed at the local level. The partners will also examine the technologies' potential for protecting sensitive data, enhancing digital infrastructure resilience, and fostering local technical expertise.

cryptonews.ru1m ago

UNDP and DFINITY to Collaborate on AI Infrastructure Development

cryptonews.ru1m ago

Algorand Introduces Protocol for Managing AI Agents

The Algorand Foundation has introduced AC2, an open protocol designed to enable secure user interaction with and control over AI agents. The protocol is blockchain-agnostic, establishing an encrypted direct connection between a user's wallet or application and an AI agent. AC2 allows agents to request user permission for various actions, such as executing payments, signing code, or accessing APIs. Users review and approve or deny these requests directly within their wallet interface, eliminating the need to share private keys with the AI. The protocol supports multiple operational scenarios. For instance, a software agent can seek approval before signing, while a payment agent can send transaction details to a user's wallet for verification. Shopping agents can operate within pre-set user-defined limits on permissible items and spending amounts. For messaging, AC2 utilizes DIDComm v2.0, and for authentication, it employs passkeys via Liquid Auth, which is based on FIDO2 and WebAuthn standards. The protocol supports text and voice interaction, signature delegation, and can function without a centralized intermediary or even a blockchain.

cryptonews.ru3m ago

Algorand Introduces Protocol for Managing AI Agents

cryptonews.ru3m ago

U.S. Bonds, AI, Inflation: You Can't Have All Three – What's Bitcoin Betting On?

Title: U.S. Treasury Bonds, AI, and Inflation: A Trilemma Facing Washington, and Where BTC Fits In Core Thesis: The U.S. government faces a trilemma: stabilizing the Treasury market, sustaining the AI investment cycle, and controlling inflation. The likely political choice is to prioritize the first two, accepting higher inflation for longer. This creates a sustained tailwind for both gold and Bitcoin by injecting liquidity and shifting duration risk away from the private sector. Key Pressures on Treasuries: * Long-term yields (e.g., 10-year ~4.70%) are near multi-decade highs due to persistent inflation risks, high fiscal supply, weaker demand for long duration, and new competition from AI infrastructure financing. * AI investment, requiring massive capital (estimated ~$300B in investment-grade bond issuance), is now competing directly with the Treasury in long-duration debt markets. * Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Iran conflict) add upward pressure on oil prices and defense spending. Policy Response: The Treasury, under Secretary Besant, is focusing on market stability through measures like supporting the Yen (to prevent forced Japanese Treasury sales), increasing repo operations for long-dated bonds, and potentially shifting issuance toward the short end. This "aggressive Treasury issuance" can function like "stealth QE," easing financial conditions. Impact on Assets: * **Gold** has already benefited (up ~90% from Aug 2024 to Aug 2026), driven by declining trust in the USD, inflation fears, and a "monetary debasement" narrative. * **Bitcoin** is now showing stronger correlation with this theme. Recent outperformance vs. gold (BTC +22.2% vs. Gold +5.9% in late Aug) coincided with Treasury's enhanced repo actions, suggesting the market may be pricing it as a liquidity/ debasement hedge, not just a speculative tech asset. Conclusion: If high inflation, large deficits, and AI capital demands persist, the cost of stabilizing bonds and growth will be shorter debt maturity, constant liquidity support, and tolerance for higher inflation—a favorable environment for gold and BTC. This view would be challenged only by a return to ~2% inflation, credible fiscal consolidation, or AI becoming self-funding.

marsbit13m ago

U.S. Bonds, AI, Inflation: You Can't Have All Three – What's Bitcoin Betting On?

marsbit13m ago

HBM is Being Redefined

HBM is being redefined as AI-driven demand for computing power shifts the performance bottleneck from processing units to memory bandwidth, making High Bandwidth Memory the critical component for advanced AI hardware. At HotChips 2026, Samsung and SK Hynix unveiled new technical roadmaps for HBM4, moving away from the traditional approach of simply increasing DRAM speed and stacking layers. The focus for HBM4 has shifted from DRAM optimization to a comprehensive system-level redesign of the Base Die. Key innovations include upgrading the Base Die to advanced logic processes (e.g., Samsung's 4nm), adopting hybrid bonding for 3D stacking, and exploring heterogeneous packaging solutions like Intel's EMIB alongside the established CoWoS. This marks HBM's evolution from a simple memory component into an integrated system involving "memory + logic + packaging + IP + EDA." This transition brings benefits like better signal integrity, higher I/O bandwidth (up to 2048-bit), and potential for in-memory computing. However, it also introduces significant complexity. DRAM manufacturers now must deeply collaborate with logic foundries, extending design cycles and increasing supply chain challenges. Furthermore, the industry is moving towards multiple advanced packaging paths, with EMIB emerging as an alternative to CoWoS to alleviate capacity constraints, while hybrid bonding is being developed for future ultra-high (16+ layer) stacks. New core barriers have emerged beyond manufacturing. High-speed PHY/SERDES IP, crucial for HBM4's higher data rates, is concentrated among a few established players, creating an entry barrier for smaller firms. Similarly, the industry lacks mature 3D heterogeneous EDA toolchains capable of co-simulating the coupled electrical, thermal, and mechanical effects across the logic base, memory stacks, and interposer. These "soft" capabilities in IP and EDA are now critical determinants of HBM4's performance and yield. In summary, the HBM industry is entering a new era of systemic competition. The standardized approach is giving way to divergent vendor roadmaps, with multiple technologies coexisting. Success will depend on integrated architecture, packaging, process, and ecosystem capabilities, fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape for AI memory.

marsbit17m ago

HBM is Being Redefined

marsbit17m ago

The Era of Earning 200,000 from a 3,000 Investment Is Over; AI Comic Dramas Are Not a Get-Rich-Quick Trend

The era of turning 3,000 yuan into 200,000 yuan is over. AI-generated comic dramas are no longer a low-barrier gold rush. A wave of sudden account suspensions has hit creators in AI comic dramas, AI art, and AI tutorials, primarily triggered by new content and copyright compliance rules implemented by Tomato Novel on August 17. This "last straw" exposed the underlying issues: tightening platform rules, rising copyright requirements, increasing costs, and severe content homogenization. The business model was fundamentally unsustainable for most creators. One creator detailed the math: producing five minutes of content daily cost around 510 yuan in AI computing and editing, while a video with 60,000 views might only earn 45 yuan. While a few early viral hits like "Huo Qubing" and "Zombie Cleaner" achieved high returns with minimal investment, they were exceptions. The reality for most solo creators was barely covering costs or operating at a loss. The new regulations mandate formal authorization from original authors for adaptations, limit video length and the amount of原著 content used, and ban terms like "Episode 1" in titles. This directly dismantled the previous "produce first, authorize later" model. Faced with the inability to afford版权 costs and the threat of penalty, many creators chose to halt updates. While some fans expressed frustration, the rules protect original authors who often faced侵权 with little recourse. The shutdowns signal not the failure of AI technology, but an inevitable industry shift from wild growth to regulated refinement. The previous model prioritized quick cash over quality content, leading to formulaic, "AI-face" saturated dramas that audiences grew tired of. The future belongs to creators who use AI as a tool to serve solid storytelling, not replace it. Some are now seeking formal licenses, a slower but necessary process. Upcoming national regulations further underscore this move towards standardization, weeding out those seeking only fast money and making space for genuine creators.

marsbit18m ago

The Era of Earning 200,000 from a 3,000 Investment Is Over; AI Comic Dramas Are Not a Get-Rich-Quick Trend

marsbit18m ago

Trading

Spot
活动图片