SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-17Last updated on 2024-05-17

Abstract

股价早盘再次挑战历史新高,随后回落。BTC在近期高点持稳,交易活动平淡。然而,Coinbase股价昨天下跌了9%,与BTC价格显著背离。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

股价早盘再次挑战历史新高,随后回落,同时美债也经历了熊平走势,短天期收益率因进口价格大幅上升(环比增长 0.7% vs 预期的 0.1% )而小幅走高。

在下周三之前重要数据较少,届时将有 Nvidia 的财报发布,期权隐含的股价波动为 +/-8% ,略低于其两年平均的 +/-8.4% 和 2 月份的 + 10.9% ,考虑到这家芯片巨头在 SPX 中的超大权重, 8% 的隐含波动意味著对 SPX 约 0.4% 的影响,更不用说对指数中其他相关股票的情绪溢出效应。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

除了进口价格超出预期,预计油价在夏季驾驶繁忙季节的反弹可能会使 CPI 压力持续到 8 月,不过通胀交易员仍然坚信 CPI 将在年底前回落至 2.5% 以下。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

对通胀坚定不移的信心和缺乏经济风险使得市场能够单纯将注意力集中在利率走势上,导致美债收益率和股价自 12  月中旬以来呈现完美的负相关,换句话说,股票和债券价格在一个完美的理想荣景中同步上涨,(再次)忽略了可能来自经济更进一步放缓、顽固的通货膨胀或估值修正的尾部风险。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

加密货币方面没有太多值得关注的消息,BTC 在近期高点持稳,交易活动平淡。然而,Coinbase 股价昨天下跌了 9% ,与 BTC 价格显著背离,因为投资者开始担心 CME 等机构进入现货交易业务将导致合规领域的竞争加剧。 TradFi 的加入无疑带来了行业需要的资金流入,但也肯定会引发新的竞争,一两年后加密货币市场将会是什么样子?我们拭目以待。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240517):完美的理想荣景回归

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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