SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-13Last updated on 2024-05-13

Abstract

数字货币方面，作为一周的开始，BTC开局强劲，短线一度上破63000关口，前端隐含波动率大幅走平升高。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

上周五美国宏观数据表现较差， 5 月一年期通胀率预期从 3.2% 上升至 3.5% ，密大消费者信心指数显现疲软，降至 67.4 ，抵消了近期就业数据走软对市场风险情绪的正面影响，美国十年期国债收益率一度重回 4.5% 关口以上，对利率政策更敏感的两年期收益率现走高至 4.853% 。风险资产表现相对稳健，美国三大股指涨跌不一，其中道指和标普分别小幅收涨 0.32% /0.16% ，纳指跌 0.03% 。本周市场的焦点将会集中在周三发布的 CPI 数据，或将成为中期价格走势的关键驱动因素。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

Source：Investing

数字货币方面，作为一周的开始，BTC 开局强劲，短线一度上破 63000 关口，前端隐含波动率大幅走平升高，其中 17 MAY 在 CPI 不确定性的影响下形成了局部 IV 高点，投资者密切关注消费者价格是否会有降温迹象，这将会是推动市场押注数字货币和其他风险资产的一大助力，但另一方面，一份糟糕的通胀报告也会引发交易员对经济超载的担忧，并可能导致数字货币价格的下跌。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

Source: TradingView

另外有两件事值得注意。据 Cryptonews 的报道，日本的投资咨询服务公司 Metaplanet 已在其声明中明确地表示该公司“Bitcoin-first, Bitcoin-only”的战略，并提供长天期日元借贷以及定期股票发行等金融方案，他们补充说道这是为了不断累积更多的比特币，而不是保留日益疲软的日元。

另一件事关乎美国大选，近期拜登政府对加强数字货币监管的一系列举措引发了投资者的不满。作为美国现任总统拜登的支持者，亿万富翁 Mark Cuban 在近期突然转向，他认为在拜登的领导下，美国证监会主席 Gary Gensler 未能保护投资者，同时使得“合法的加密货币公司几乎不可能运营”，并警告若继续反对比特币和加密货币，共和党总统候选人 Donald Trump 很可能赢得 2024 年总统大选。事实上，特朗普最近对比特币的态度也是发生了 180 度的转变， 2019 年他还公开表示自己不喜欢比特币，但近期在海湖庄园活动中他却又大方告诉与会者“如果你支持加密货币，你最好投票给特朗普”，这一度引发社群的轰动。该言论被美国媒体 Politico 描述为“对抗拜登的新武器”，关于数字货币政策的发展也将在接下来的大选中扮演越来越重要的角色。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

Source: Deribit （截至 13 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

Data Source: Deribit， BTC & ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240513)：强劲开局

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