空投积分交易市场Whales Market参与指南和前景预测

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-03-29Last updated on 2024-03-29

Abstract

Whales Market优缺点都很明显，今年内还存在市值上涨空间。

原创 | Odaily星球日报

作者 | 范佳宝

空投积分交易市场Whales Market参与指南和前景预测

Whales Market，是基于  Solana 链的、允许用户在正式代币发行前进行代币预先交换的点对点一级市场平台。

此前，对于中小投资者而言，能得到代币的方式基本就三种——空投、二级市场交易和作为激励的代币。而 Whales Market 则让用户可以交易自己的尚未上线交易所的代币（如 Portal、STRK）或者空投活动的积分点数（Magic Eden Points、Grass Points）以及白名单等。这一举措盘活了更早期市场的流动性，可称得上是极大的创新。

使用介绍

目前，Whales Market 支持三种交易，分别是 Pre-Market、OTC market 和 Points Market，并即将推出 Runes 和 WLs market（白名单市场）两种交易功能。

Pre-Market

Pre-Market 交易那些尚未正式正式上线交易所的代币，而 Whales Market 提供了一个提前价格博弈的机会。

空投积分交易市场Whales Market参与指南和前景预测

OTC Market

在交易所中，对流动性不足的代币（比如很多热度不高的土狗）进行交易挂单会产生大量的滑点容差。在这种情况下，点对点的 OTC 交易似乎是更好的模式。Whales Market 中的 OTC 交易分为两种，一种是带有蓝色盾牌标志的认证挂单，代表着 Whales Market 对其进行过安全筛选和认证。第二种则是普通的 OTC 交易，没有 Whales Market 的筛选，更加鱼龙混杂。

空投积分交易市场Whales Market参与指南和前景预测

Points Market

我们在完成空投任务时会收获积分，用于代币正式发行后的领取空投。出于各种原因，如预期之后正式代币价格下降、需要资金周转等，往往会有人想出售代币空投活动的积分。而自然也会有人想要购买积分抢占先机。Pre-Market 允许用户提前交易积分点数，空投后再进行交割，增加了一处博弈的环节。

空投积分交易市场Whales Market参与指南和前景预测

订单簿式的点对点交易

由于想在流动性有限的情况下尽量撮合交易，Whales Market 采用了买卖双方挂单点对点成交的方式。也即任意一方选择出售/购买的币种、数量和价格，创建买/卖订单并持续挂在市场内，直到该订单被满足以成交。如图中的 GUAC 代币买单，显示有买单数量、总价、代币单价，和该订单已经被完成的百分比。

双重抵押机制

此外，Whales Market 还利用双重抵押机制保障交易。不管是挂单方还是吃单方，是买方还是卖方，参与交易的双方都必须缴纳和订单金额相等的保证金。如一方违约，终止最后的代币交割，那么另一方就能收到过错方的保证金作为补偿。

 代币机制介绍和基本面分析

Whales Market 的代币名为 WHALES，共计 1 亿枚。

代币释放情况

  1.   65% 用于激励， 4 年内线性释放，由 DAO 进行代币治理。

  2.   9.5% 的团队占比，锁定 9 个月后， 36 个月内线性释放。

  3.   7.5% 用于提供流动性，其中 2.5% 预留给 CEX 上市。

  4.   7% 在私募环节售出。

收益分配

  1.    60% 分配给 WHALES 代币质押人。

  2.    20% 用来支付后续的开发费用。

  3.   10 ％ 回购并销毁代币。

  4.   10 ％ 分配给 LOOT 和 xLOOT（创始人之前的项目）的持有者。

代币质押

用户可以在操作页面中的 staking 界面质押 WHALES 以获取治理代币 xWHALES。如前文所述，xWHALES 将提供给用户奖励。

 此外，Whales Market 已于 3 月 15 日开始每月将销毁未质押代币的 1% ，以保证项目的良好运行。

项目基本面介绍

根据 CoinGecko 的数据显示，截至写就本文的日期（2024.3.28），$WHALES 的价格为$ 1.99 ，市值为 3917 万美元，占总流通量 1.93 亿美金的 21% 。

最高点为 2 月 26 日出现的$ 4.41 ，相较于最高点跌去 57% ，最低点则出现在 1 月 8 日，即项目刚上线的$ 0.08 ，也就是说目前的价格是最初的 200 倍。

空投积分交易市场Whales Market参与指南和前景预测

根据 Dune 的数据显示，截至目前，Whales Market 的用户数量为 25150 人，质押占比为 73.9% 。同时有有 102 万美元的收入已经按照前文计划被分享。

此外，创始人兼管理者为 Dexter，曾开发过 Telegram 机器人项目 Lootbot，并着手开发新的 AI 项目 gm.ai。

项目前景和市值估算

Whales Market 优缺点明显：

优点

  1.    Whales Market 的代币是线性释放，无需担心未来短时间内出现大量释放稀释价格。

  2.    Whales Market 的代币赋能简单、直接、有效。

  3.    采用回购销毁的机制，能够对抗代币释放带来的通胀影响。

  4.    大部分代币都在质押当中，大量解除或增加质押会被链上监控，可以防止巨鲸突然砸盘。

  5.   赛道新颖，潜力无限，后续还会开发新功能。

缺点

  1.  目前流通量仅为 21% ，大部分代币还未释放。

  2.  创始人 Dexter 在最近 Solana 链上的“收款空投”模式中，将链上筹集的 sol 转入交易所，引发用户不满，以及对 Dexter 所负责的 Whales Market 的担忧。

  3.  代币涨幅已达一开始的数百倍，早期获利者潜在的获利砸盘风险。

项目市值估算

考虑到目前还没有同赛道的平台，我们基于市盈率等数据进行估算：

据 Dune 上的数据显示，目前代币流通数量为 400 万枚，质押数量则为 1219 万枚。

考虑到目前 Whales Market 的发展相对平稳，可以拿现在的非质押比例计算每个月销毁比例，即为 0.274* 0.01 = 0.00274 = 0.274% ，也即每个月销毁 0.274% 的代币。仅计算主要的激励代币，每个月释放的代币比例也会造成 1.35% 的代币增加。也就是说 Whales Market 目前是通胀模型。

空投积分交易市场Whales Market参与指南和前景预测

前文所述，Whales Market 的市值为 3917 万美元，分配收益为 102 万美元，考虑到 Whales Market 上的交易主要发生在 1 月 10 日之后，剔除项目新发的时段，将动态市盈率计算区间定为 2.5 个月，计算得市盈率为 8.3 。但是考虑到 whales 今年的代币通胀将会增加流通总量 20% 左右的代币，则最终今年的动态市盈率为 9.96 。对比其他大多数 DeFi 项目，如 AAVE 等，P/E（本年收益/本年分红）基本在 20 以上，由此可以看出 Whales Market 在 2024 年内还存在市值上涨空间。

Whales Market 承诺，协议收入将持续大于通胀带来的影响，确保了用户的收益下限保障，这也是优势所在。

空投积分交易市场Whales Market参与指南和前景预测

而根据 Dune 上的数据显示，Whales Market 在大项目登陆时交易量会激增，如 Ether.Fi、Blast、Jupiter 等。这无疑能带来用户增长、收入增加和代币价格的升高。考虑到 2024 年大概率是牛市的一年，将会有众多优质项目登录 Whales Market。

结语

Whales Market 所处的赛道新颖，竞争对手少，且代币有赋能和治理保障。并且，随着大项目陆续登陆，只要不再出现如最近的创始人募资转移到交易所这样的争议事件，我们仍然看好 Whales Market 在 2024 年的发展。

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