SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-03-28Last updated on 2024-03-28

Abstract

月末市场仍保持平静，欧洲方面延续了鸽派的步伐，西班牙CPI数据疲软。在加密货币方面，纽约开盘时出现了一些价格波动，BTC价格飙升至近7.2万美元，然后反转下跌至6.85万美元的低点。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

月末市场仍保持平静，欧洲方面延续了鸽派的步伐，西班牙 CPI 数据疲软，欧洲央行官员自豪地宣称，尽管工资上涨，央行仍能够“很快地”开始降息。同时，瑞典央行也表达了鸽派立场，进一步加剧了降息预期，市场预期欧洲央行在年底前将降息近 95 个基点（4 次），而对于美联储的降息预期则约为 76 个基点。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

在美国方面，理事 Waller 在盘后发表谈话，延续其 2 月份的鹰派基调，他发表了诸如“经济情况没有给我们大幅降息的理由”以及“根据近期的数据，减少降息次数或是推迟降息都是合适的”等言论，然而，随著交易员开始为长周末做准备，美债收益率几乎没有受到影响，季末再平衡资金可能会主导明天的价格走势。

有趣的是，美国将在周五休市时发布 PCE 物价指数，华尔街预测核心 PCE 环比将放缓至 0.3% 以下，这将会是核心通胀年初小幅回升后一个良好的转变，不过投资者正在享受假期，并期待著第一季的出色回报，市场不太可能给予这个数据太多关注。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

昨天 SPX 指数有 91% 的成分股上涨，所有主要板块均呈现涨势。随著 Nvidia 出现一些乏力迹象，AI 的热潮已开始向硬件股蔓延，费城半导体指数的表现以互联网泡沫以来从未见过的速度超越了 SPX。此外，回顾过去一年，美国股市以近 3 x 的 Sharpe ratio 领先全球股市，考虑到其成分股的巨大市值，这是一个不可思议的成绩，突显了这次牛市行情中所产生的巨大财富效应。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

在加密货币方面，纽约开盘时出现了一些价格波动，BTC 价格飙升至近 7.2 万美元，然后反转下跌至 6.85 万美元的低点，同时 Coinbase 股价一开盘也出现波动（几分钟内从 267 --> 278 --> 256 美元），波动可能是由于美国地区法官裁定 SEC 针对 Coinbase 的诉讼可以继续进行，Coinbase 被指控从事未经注册的证券销售，其股价昨天下跌 2.5% ，并给 BTC 价格带来了压力，不过 ETF 净流入仍为正，昨天增加了 4.18 亿美元的资金。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

最后，在接受 Fox Business 采访时，Larry Fink 虚张声势的言论仍在持续，他表示即使 SEC 认为 ETH 是一种证券，仍有机会批准 ETH ETF。如果 Blackrock、SEC 和 CFTC 能够一起坐下来好好解决问题，那不是很好吗？

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240328)：美国核心通胀小幅下降

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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