比特币高波动性特征显现!ETF投资者会被“甩下车”吗?

金十Published on 2024-03-07Last updated on 2024-03-07

2024年初,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)允许10只比特币现货ETF开始交易,这是一项具有里程碑意义的决定。

这些ETF是由贝莱德和富达投资等全球一些最大的资产管理公司发起的,并给比特币带来了新的关注和投资,使其价格达到历史新高。

比特币现货ETF旨在拉近加密爱好者和股市投资者之间的差距。在此之前,购买比特币的唯一途径是通过加密货币交易所。

然而,新的比特币现货ETF允许投资者通过一种可以在股市上购买的股票产品来接触比特币,这使得新投资者可以开始购买比特币,而无需创建新账户。

比特币现货ETF在很大程度上取得了成功,大量资金流入在3月5日将比特币推至近7万美元的历史新高。随着越来越多的人购买ETF股票,开设相关比特币现货ETF的机构被迫购买比特币,这导致了比特币的大量购买活动。

3月5日,当比特币达到历史新高时,贝莱德旗下的比特币现货ETF在一天内就创纪录地流入了7.883亿美元,这意味着贝莱德必须购买超过11000个比特币,这可能将比特币的价格推向一个新的高点。

虽然贝莱德的比特币现货ETF获得了巨额资金流入,但所有ETF的净流入略少,总额略低于6.5亿美元。这是因为有大量卖家在卖出灰度比特币信托(GBTC)的ETF,因为套利玩家正在寻求退出并获得利润,同时该ETF收取的高额费用也导致一些人投资于其他基金。

资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas在一篇文章中指出,3月5日,这10只比特币现货ETF的总成交量首次超过100亿美元。他还指出,“对于成立不到两个月的ETF来说,这些数字是惊人的。”

尽管比特币现货ETF在最初几个月的交易中获得了巨额资金流入,但一个关键的问题是,比特币现货ETF的投资者们会如何应对这种高波动。

一些人认为,目前的资金流入是对即将到来的比特币减半的预期,预计将在4月份发生,这可能是一个“买预期卖事实”事件。新的以太坊现货ETF也在讨论中。如果后者获批,可能会削弱比特币现货ETF的“新颖性”。

比特币目前的波动正变得越来越剧烈。T3比特币波动指数(T3 Bitcoin Volatility Index)已跃升至山姆·班克曼-弗里德(SBF)的FTX交易所倒闭以来的最高水平,该指数利用期权价格来预测比特币未来30天内的预期波动。这一飙升表明,加密市场应该为比特币的更多波动做好准备

尽管比特币周二飙升至69000美元以上的峰值,但该代币从高点迅速逆转,导致盘中波动超过14个百分点,而周三的波动幅度为8个百分点。可以想象,这样的波动可能会让一些ETF投资者感到不安。

“希望他们都得到了可能发生这种情况的警告,但即便如此,这可能还是让许多人感到震惊,不幸的是,对一些人来说可能是毁灭性的,”《加密货币现在是宏观的》通讯的作者Noelle Acheson写道。“如果这一波动永久性地吓跑了许多不希望在其投资组合中出现这种行动的人,那么这对他们和市场来说都是好消息。”

不过,尽管波动性很大,但投资者仍在将资金投入比特币现货ETF中。外媒分析师Eric Balchunas和Athanasios Psarofagis在一份报告中写道,这表明“比特币ETF投资者很可能是该资产最强大的投资者之一,不太可能在市场下跌时退出。”

也有一些人注意到,买入活动正在慢慢削弱卖方的流动性,其他人则认为,这轮牛市只是更广泛牛市的开始,比特币的价格可能会进一步涨到6位数水平。

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