Metrics Ventures市场观察:加密牛市冲锋号,第二宇宙速度的恢弘征程才刚刚启动

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-03-06Last updated on 2024-03-06

Abstract

BTC Dominance 已经触顶,ETHBTC汇率对即将反转突破:山寨季即将来临,大规模题材轮动即将启动,我们相约共同见证100, 000美元之后,疯狂的第三宇宙速度。

已经没有你等待的最后的上车机会了,从现在开始,每一天都将是你的最后上车机会。

请允许我用流浪地球的语气,再度敬告全体人类,下一阶段加密市场牛市的恢弘计划:

第一阶段,经历 2022 年年底的剧烈洗盘,本轮周期经历 2023 年全年完成筹码换手,将长短期筹码持仓均价建立在 30, 000 美元一线,将 30, 000 美元形成本轮周期底部的地心引力;

第二阶段,受 ETF 预期提振,BTC 价格突破 30, 000 美元以上,脱离主力持仓成本区间,以第一宇宙速度挣脱地心引力,进行启动牛市的加速;

第三阶段,ETF 通过预期实现,BTC 价格突破 2022 年 11 月至 2024 年 1 月 24 日形成的长期上升通道,加速至第二宇宙速度,BTC 突破 48, 000 美元一线,宣告开启主升浪,开始脱离地心引力;我们当前已经身处第二宇宙速度。

第四阶段,BTC 突破 100, 000 美元,加速至主升浪末期,进入第三宇宙速度,从而引发群体狂热,彻底脱离地心引力,进入太阳系。

本计划自 2009 年至今已历经 15 年“四代人”,尽管我们不知道太阳系外将为加密市场带来什么样的家园,但从今天开始,历代加密人的勇气与坚毅将永远刻于星空之上。

对于未来的行情走势,我认为已经无需多言, 2024 年 2 月 24 日,在历史地位上,约等于 2020 年 11 月 8 日,和 2017 年 5 月如出一辙,都是行情进入第二宇宙速度的启动日,从下图标蓝的圆圈可以看到。

Metrics Ventures市场观察:加密牛市冲锋号,第二宇宙速度的恢弘征程才刚刚启动

2015 年 11 月到 2017 年 5 月,以长期上升通道突破的方式进入主升浪;2019 年 2 月到 2020 年 11 月,以收敛大三角突破的方式进入主升浪;本轮 2022 年 12 月到 2024 年 2 月,同样以长期上升通道突破的方式进入加速浪。

从历次周期的走势来看,只要经历了近一年半的漫长蓄势之后,只要 BTC 的走势突破加速形态,进入第二宇宙速度,那么在突破历史前高之前都会气势如虹,不存在任何阻力。这也就是为什么春节前后 BTC 突破 48, 000 美元一线后,可以直接冲击 67, 000 美元历史前高的核心原因。

对于本轮周期的走势,也无需再进行任何数据层面的分析,ETF 的净流入已经形成趋势,具体净流入多少已经不再重要;很多人恐慌借贷利率和合约费率高企,过程中有没有暴跌或闪崩,这些也并不重要;宏观环境降息与否,我已经说了两年,根本完全不重要。

作为强反身性的市场,趋势已然形成,周期会自行强化,我们无需任何担心怀疑,任何对回调或闪崩的忧虑都是杞人忧天。

目前市场刚启动加速浪不久,即将突破历史前高,第二宇宙速度的恢弘征程才刚刚启动,我们可以合理作出一些推断:

BTC Dominance 已经触顶;ETHBTC 汇率对即将反转突破:山寨季即将来临,大规模题材轮动即将启动。我们相约共同见证 100, 000 美元之后,疯狂的第三宇宙速度。

经历漫长的岁月,对于加密市场的质疑仍在不断滋生,我拒接接受他们这种期望,行业的趋势将踏遍每一片大地,直至将所有质疑都从这世上驱逐殆尽。

关于我们

Metrics Ventures 是数据和研究驱动的加密资产二级市场流动性基金,由经验丰富的加密专业人士团队领导。 该团队拥有一级市场孵化和二级市场交易方面的专业知识,并通过深入的链上/链下数据分析在行业发展中发挥积极作用。 MVC 与加密社区资深影响力人物合作,可以为项目提供长期赋能能力支持,如媒体和 KOL 资源、生态协作资源、项目策略、经济模型咨询能力等。

欢迎大家 DM,一起分享和探讨关于加密资产的市场与投资的见解和想法。

我们的研究内容会同步发布在 Twitter 和 Notion,欢迎关注:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetricsVentures

Notion: https://www.notion.so/metricsventures/Metrics-Ventures-475803b4407946b1ae6e0eeaa8708fa2?pvs=4

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