SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-02-26Last updated on 2024-02-26

Abstract

市场在上周五仍保持风险偏好的态势,在加密货币方面,价格在近期反弹后也同样趋于平稳,不过整体主流叙事仍持续改善。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

市场在上周五仍保持风险偏好的态势,中国 10 年期公债收益率触及 20 年低点,欧洲固定收益市场在欧洲央行鸽派言论支持下上涨,而尽管有大量债券供应,新债的投资需求仍相当良好。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

卖方经济学家也一直在上修美国经济增长预测,普遍认为经济衰退的可能性已经降至不到 40% , 2024 年经济增长预测的中位数为 2.1% 。此外,由于经济数据强劲,高盛也正式将美联储首次降息的预测推迟至 6 月,不过他们仍预计终端利率将降至 3.25-3.5% 左右的低点。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

科技板块在经历了惊人的涨幅后,上周五因获利了结而表现稍微落后,不过股市仍保持在历史高点附近。对冲基金和共同基金都自年初开始大量持有股票敞口,因此无论是主动型或者被动型基金经理人,今年迄今都取得了出色的成绩。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

企业盈利继续复苏,预计进入 2025 年时盈利仍会不断增长, 36% 的 S&P 企业在季度财报电话会议中提到“AI”,该主题仍然持续推动利润和市场情绪。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

在加密货币方面,价格在近期反弹后也同样趋于平稳,不过整体主流叙事仍持续改善。Reddit 最近在其 S-1 (IPO) 文件中宣布,他们已将部分多余现金投资于 BTC 和 ETH,且预计未来会继续使用它们来支付某些虚拟商品。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

与此同时,散户的参与度持续改善,JPM 报告称,与大型机构钱包相比,小型钱包(即散户)的资金流入更大。 Block、PayPal 和 Robinhood 等散户平台的 Bitcoin 净购买量也在 2023 年出现反弹,同时 Coinbase 的 2023 年第四季度财报也显示机构和散户交易活动均出现提升。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226):高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

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