SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-02-16Last updated on 2024-02-16

Abstract

市场对BTC的看涨情绪在来到52000美元关口附近后快速衰弱,过去24小时价格维持小幅震荡(-0.08%),使得包括ETH在内的期权隐含波动率曲面走陡,前端下跌1.5-2.5%Vol左右。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

昨日(15 FEB)美国 1 月零售销售月率录得-0.8% ,低于预期的-0.1% ,数据公布后十年期美债收益率一度下破 4.2% ,但随后有所回升,现报 4.267% ,对利率政策更敏感的两年期收益率重回 4.6% 上方,报 4.607% 。纳指/标普/道指分别收涨 0.3% /0.58% /0.91% 。

尽管此前芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在 1 月份大超预期的 CPI 数值出来后安抚了市场的情绪,但据金十报道,昨日亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在谈话中表示,由于美国劳动力市场和经济仍然强劲,美联储可能并不急于降息,并警告说,目前尚不清楚通胀是否会向美联储 2% 的目标迈进,他的预期是,通胀率将继续下降,但要比市场押注暗示的速度慢。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币方面,市场对 BTC 的看涨情绪在来到 52000 美元关口附近后快速衰弱,过去 24 小时价格维持小幅震荡(-0.08% ),使得包括 ETH 在内的期权隐含波动率曲面走陡,前端下跌 1.5-2.5% Vol 左右,从交易分布能观察到 23 FEB 52000 vs 48000 Put Spread 的博弈,卖压略胜一筹,同时远端仍有以 29 MAR 24 65000 vs 75000 Call Spread 为代表的大宗看涨策略建仓(720 BTC per leg)。另一方面,ETH 的上行势能还在延续,日内收涨至 2819.22 (+ 1.53% ), 23 FEB 2300/2500 和 1 MAR 2650 附近出现大量平仓看涨实值期权的止损单。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: Deribit (截至 15 FEB 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Data Source: Deribit,ETH 短期出现大量实值期权止损单

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Data Source: Deribit

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240216):BTC上行势能衰弱,ETH接力继续突破

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

Related Reads

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: Anthropic IPO Odds Exceed 80%, Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again, Triggering Oil Price Volatility

**Market Digest** **AI & Tech:** Anthropic is widely expected to announce an IPO before November 2026, raising questions about balancing its trillion-dollar valuation ambitions with its core "AI safety" mission. Brands are increasingly adopting AI-generated virtual influencers for marketing. Cloudflare introduced temporary accounts for AI agents to ease automation workflows. **Infrastructure & Hardware:** Google's IPv6 traffic surpassed 50%, marking a major internet milestone. Goldman Sachs warned that massive projected AI capital expenditure ($5.3T) is approaching credit saturation limits, potentially curbing the "AI arms race." **Space & Robotics:** SpaceX's IPO saw a historic $370M retail buying frenzy in three days. Hyundai Motor Group plans to acquire full ownership of Boston Dynamics. Elon Musk speculated about future "septillion-dollar" investments in antimatter for interstellar travel. **Energy & Geopolitics:** Iran's military announced another closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of violating a ceasefire, causing oil market volatility. However, ship-tracking data indicated some traffic continued. Concurrently, Iran resumed crude loadings at Kharg Island, potentially releasing up to 20 million barrels to the market. **Finance & Macro:** A European CLO (collateralized loan obligation) experienced its first post-2008-crisis-era equity tranche default, raising alarms in credit markets. Nomura warned that new Federal Reserve Chair Wash's perceived hawkish debut speech could signal a significant policy shift. **The Undercurrent:** Seemingly disparate events—the Strait of Hormuz tension, the European CLO default, and warnings on AI spending—point to a tightening of global liquidity and rising marginal costs across energy, credit, and tech investment. Meanwhile, capital continues chasing grand narratives like space exploration and advanced AI, highlighting a divergence where old-world leverage frays as new-world stories grow more ambitious.

marsbit2h ago

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: Anthropic IPO Odds Exceed 80%, Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again, Triggering Oil Price Volatility

marsbit2h ago

The Hunter Becomes the Hunted: The Most Profitable MEV Bot Gets Hacked

A well-known and highly profitable Ethereum MEV Bot, Jaredfromsubway.eth, suffered a sophisticated on-chain attack this Saturday, losing over $7.5 million. Analysis by Blockaid and others reveals this was not a conventional phishing or smart contract exploit, but a targeted "counter-MEV honeypot attack." The attacker meticulously laid a trap over several weeks, deploying 66 fake token contracts and liquidity pools disguised as major assets like WETH and USDC. These pools created the illusion of arbitrage opportunities. The MEV Bot's automated system detected these signals, executed trades, and in the process, granted approval permissions to attacker-controlled contracts. These approvals were not revoked, creating a persistent vulnerability. The attacker then exploited this in a single transaction, draining the bot's ETH, USDC, and USDT holdings. Jaredfromsubway.eth is notorious as one of Ethereum's most active and profitable MEV Bots, primarily known for executing "sandwich attacks" to profit from transaction slippage. Estimates suggest it has earned tens of millions in MEV revenue. The incident highlights escalating crypto security threats, demonstrating that even top-tier automated "predators" are vulnerable to novel, logic-based attacks designed to exploit their own operational rules. Following the hack, an unverified X account impersonating Jaredfromsubway.eth emerged, falsely offering a bounty for the return of funds, prompting developer warnings for users to stay vigilant.

marsbit3h ago

The Hunter Becomes the Hunted: The Most Profitable MEV Bot Gets Hacked

marsbit3h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片