1. BTC price: low rebound, creating trading opportunities
At the weekly K-line level, BTC's decline has successfully broken the key point of $36078 corresponding to 50% of Fibonacci. On May 9, BTC hit a minimum of $33222. After being 50% away from Fibonacci in the short term, the possibility of strong rebound in the near future is very low. Meanwhile, in terms of decline within one year, since the decline of US $58861 on May 8, 2021, the cumulative decline of BTC has expanded to 43%.
Although the 61.8% support of Fibonacci was confirmed to be more effective in 2021, even if BTC hit the corresponding USD 28306 of 61.8%, there is little possibility of short-term bottom reading profit. At present, the transaction volume of BTC has been able to maintain a low level, and there is no signal of how to increase the volume in the short term.
In the process of interval fluctuation, BTC has recently operated below 50% of Fibonacci. For fixed investment or low absorption, you can pay attention to the lower 28307, and there is no buying opportunity nearby.
2. Unrealized loss increase, selling pressure high-level operation
Net unrealized loss (nul) is the sum of the difference between the value of utxo and the price created and destroyed only in the loss divided by the market value.
Assuming that the most recent coin movement is the result of a purchase, it displays the total number of utxos lost.
The rising trend of value means that more and more investors are beginning to lose money, indicating that they "may hit the bottom".
The growth sign of nul index is very clear, and the value soared from around 0.03 at the end of March to 0.158 on May 8. Comparing the peak value of nul index of BTC in July 2021 and January 2022, it can reach around 0.16. Therefore, it is clear that BTC is in the key position of increasing loss.
Reviewing the trend of nul index of BTC in 2020, the index soared to more than 0.48, which promoted the rapid decline of loss plate. At present, BTC's loss market accumulates rapidly. After waiting for the killing trend and the release of selling pressure, we can confirm the buying opportunity to significantly reduce the risk of lock-in.
3. The financing interest rate is low and the selling pressure has not reached the peak stage
The financing interest rate of BTC is low, but it still operates around 0, which is limited to a low of -0.05 in 2021. At the same time, there is a larger gap from -0.256 in 2020. According to this judgment, the long selling strength of BTC is not strong, and the cost of financing purchase by investors can easily be maintained at or above 0.
As a result, the competition between long and short sides is still fierce, and the fluctuation of financing cost is small, which means that the adjustment of BTC has not intensified. Usually, when the financing cost drops significantly below 0, it will prompt the full release of selling pressure and the opportunity of buying at a low price.
4. Dragon and tiger list:
The continuous decline of BTC led to the decline of the whole market, and the downward trend of most sectors continued. Among the strong currencies, LDO and xcn perform better in the short term.
Increase list:
LDO
LDO with the highest growth is Ethereum 2.0 pledge liquidity solution, and its TVL has continued to withdraw recently. The amount is $15.7 billion. Among them, the pledge scale of eth has reached US $10.18 billion. From the perspective of application, LDO has application prospects in Solana ecology, poca ecology, polygon ecology and Terra ecology in addition to Ethereum 2.0. As a LDO to solve the problem of pledge liquidity, its price increase is expected to be of concern.
In terms of volume and price performance, LDO has increased by 27.6% in the past 24 hours, with obvious characteristics of large-scale increase. Reviewing the volume and price trend of LDO since February 2021, it is clear that the large-scale volume appears in September, November and April 2021. The effect of this volume increase is similar to that in September 2021. There are signs that the price is separated from the $3 platform. We can pay appropriate attention to the price trend.
In terms of good news, as many as 1 million LDOS were airdropped, which lasted until May 15, with a clear value of US $3 million.
In terms of 24-hour increase, LDO performed better, while TRX and algo also increased significantly in 7 days. Driven by favorable conditions, TRX maintained high-level operation in large quantities, while algo showed a technical rebound after a sharp decline.
Decline list
Shib, ape and AAVE fell in the top three, and most of the falling currencies were large market value currencies, indicating that when the market is in a clear adjustment stage, it is difficult to have a real strong currency. At present, avoiding risks is still the most important thing.
