SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-01-30Last updated on 2024-01-30

Abstract

昨天的经济数据相对平静,最重要的可能是美国财政部再融资公告,简而言之,财政部将第一季度的融资规模预估下调了6.9%至7,600亿美元,低于市场预期,帮助美债小幅反弹。在加密货币领域,就在GBTC的资金流出终于显示出一些放缓迹象之际,Blackrock的IBIT在交易量方面正一步步赶上GBTC,现货价格也相应反弹,BTC重回4.35万美元以上。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

想要现货屯囤 BTC ,强烈推荐继续卖看跌期权:卖 3 月底 38000 的看跌期权:权利金 2.65% 。1 个 BTC 的头寸是 1136 刀权利金的收入,行权就按照 36864 一个买 BTC;不行权,年化收入 16% 。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

BTC 的年底的期货升水(溢价) 是 9.2% ,也就是当下币圈无风险的基差套利年化 10% 。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

上周币圈资金净流出了 5 亿美金。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

昨天的经济数据相对平静,最重要的可能是美国财政部再融资公告,简而言之,财政部将第一季度的融资规模预估下调了 6.9% 至 7, 600 亿美元,低于市场预期,帮助美债小幅反弹,收益率曲线整体下滑约 5-6 个基点,SPX 指数突破至新高。

财政部的借款需求降低是由于预计财政资金增加,以及新年伊始现金水位比预期来得高。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

尽管年初以来降息预期有所调整,股市仍持续上涨,不过股票/债券相关性持续下降。强劲的经济数据加上全球央行的鸽派立场(降息只是时间问题)仍在推动风险情绪上升,期权市场已经反映了风险情绪的升温,过去两周 SPX 看涨期权偏斜程度大幅加剧,甚至小型股看起来也即将突破长达 2 年的盘整,上升中的牛市往往是最难交易的。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

在加密货币领域,就在 GBTC 的资金流出终于显示出一些放缓迹象之际,Blackrock 的 IBIT 在交易量方面正一步步赶上 GBTC,现货价格也相应反弹,BTC 重回 4.35 万美元以上。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

在费用方面,价格战仍在持续,Invesco/Galaxy 同意将 ETF 费用从 39 个基点下调至 25 个基点,与其他机构保持一致,远低于 Greyscale 1.5% 的费用。TradFi 进入加密货币领域意味著更低的费用、更低的点差,以及最终更低的 Alpha(竞争加剧)…希望机会之窗不会太快关闭。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240130):美国经济数据强劲,SPX持续看涨

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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