Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

Odaily星球日报Published on 2023-11-04Last updated on 2023-11-04

Abstract

下一牛市周期中潜在的核心赛道基本都已经在市场中涌现。‍

原文来源：Zonff Partners

一级市场供给端和需求端活跃度连续三个季度下降

2023 年 Q3 市场总融资额 16.94 亿美金，融资事件 170 起，平均融资规模略有上升（Ramp 与 BitGo 两个面向传统机构的基金基础设施完成了 4 亿融资额）。2023 年 10 月融资金额为 4.26 亿美元，更是持续创近 4 年来融资金额最低月份。融资金额和融资事件连续下降，市场上整体交投并不活跃，机构依旧以保守型策略为主，主要资金投向为基础设施与强基本面项目资金抱团，例如 Flashbot 等。

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

数据来源：RootData

市场情绪钝化，有望在未来两个季度迎来回暖

在投融资资金持续下降的过程中，跌幅在逐步缩小，DeFi、GameFi、游戏等原本主力赛道已经降至冰点，RWA 与 BTC 项目并没有带来山寨币市场的连续活跃度。

我们认为，当前一级市场的状态已经出现了类似 2019 年 Q4 的情绪钝化，机构只投向强基本面项目，常规赛道的优化项目已经在过去一年半完成了基本框架的布局，对于情绪面或小创新度项目又较为保守，市场短时间内难以用新叙事打破情绪冰点。当前的市场状态需要在基本面增长达到质变后重新带动信心。

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

图表来源：ROOTDATA 2023.09.28 

考虑到当前链上资金的体量，钱包数量和基本设施基本面持续增长，我们认为一级市场正在经历底部，有望在未来两个季度筑底回暖：

1. Zksync、Starknet、Celestia、Layerzero、Eigenlayer、Scroll 等项目在未来两个季度均有大的基本面更新和测试网迭代，或是主网上线，能带动潜在的链上行为活跃度和生态进一步布局的机会，大型 Infra 项目在 Q3 没有上线，链上行为和情绪并没主线；

2. 以太坊坎昆升级后带来 L2 生态进一步繁荣，Q3 L2 生态 TVL 稳定在百亿美金，资产体量和交易量进入增长瓶颈期，坎昆升级后带来更低的 Gas 成本，更快的链上体验，并有效提振二级市场价格和情绪，有望给 L2 生态带来新的布局机会；

3. 游戏赛道将迎来大规模上线，有较大概率带动市场；当前游戏的产品的供给完备， 2021 年下半年游戏融资体量过 50 亿美金，经过一年半以上的准备期，新一代链游从制作质量、运营成熟度、可玩性、体验优化上均有大幅度的提升，并即将在未来三个季度上线；

行业赛道分析

综合来看，本个熊市周期已经持续了超过 6 个季度，期间几乎所有的老叙事都有不同程度演进和发展，当中有一部分已经充分被市场证伪，新的叙事也逐一登场试水，产生有效市场反馈。在 6 个季度观察研究中，我们认为市场产生了比较充足的归纳演绎的素材，可以得出更为可靠的研究思路和观察视角。

ETH 将于未来半年内进行坎昆升级，BTC 将于 7 个月后进行下一次减半；我们认为截止到 2023 年 Q3，下一牛市周期中潜在的核心赛道基本都已经在市场中涌现。

依据过往行情经验与归纳总结，我们根据发生的优先顺序，增长爆发的原因，整体供给的规模等因素，把现存的主要赛道分为四个类别：

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

以太坊正统性驱动（重要）

以太坊正统性主要是描述区块链当前发展的核心技术路径，这个类别在 6 个季度的熊市中整体募资规模超过百亿美金，基本占据整个市场募资规模的 40% 左右。

由于大型项目空投成为熊市中为数不多的有效资产发行路径和市场热点，这类项目由此持续积累了较高的用户数据和生态资源；同时“以太坊正统性”类别的项目在早期阶段重要的核心能力是生态 BD，通过头部项目的合作新闻、叙事嵌套、空投预期、强资本背书等方式，提升品牌声量和生态关注度；此类项目的基本面发展主要以技术生态和叙事的构建为主，受市场情绪和比特币价格影响不大，配合较好的资金实力和空投效果，我们认为更容易在牛市早期成为市场的主要引领赛道。

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

客观趋势出现拐点或产生新资产类别（重要）

一级市场赛道的快速增长并引领市场通常需要满足以下的标准之一：

  • 原本的赛道或技术环境稳定发展，并产生了新的叙事思路或运营策略，如 GameFi、DeFi；

  • 客观趋势及用户或资产体量稳定增长，达到质变后产生全新的产品类别，如衍生品交易；

  • 新的叙事，产生新的资产类别，大量新资产的分发渠道不受限，如 NFT；

由此我们梳理了当前市场上有那些类别的赛道符合以上的标准之一，并认为市场部分细分领域已经开始逐步临近拐点，有较大可能成为下一轮牛市的发动机。

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

成熟赛道的规模扩展

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

依赖用户场景突破或者运营经验带来大规模流量

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

Zonff Partners：2023年Q3 Web3一级市场回顾与赛道分析

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