7*24

Hot topic

Market

Activities

On July 1, the Financial Times reported that Apple (AAPL.O) CEO Tim Cook held 'constructive' talks with EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen on Tuesday, aiming to ease tensions surrounding the recently launched 'Siri AI' technology. An EU spokesperson stated that the online meeting involved constructive exchanges on 'mutually concerning issues,' and relevant work is ongoing. Two individuals familiar with the negotiations indicated that the meeting discussed how Apple can launch the revamped Siri in Europe while avoiding potential fines of millions of dollars for violating major EU competition rules.

[UK Media: Apple CEO Holds Constructive Talks with EU Technology Chief on 'Siri AI']On July 1, the Financial Times reported that Apple (AAPL.O) CEO Tim Cook held 'constructive' talks with EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen on Tuesday, aiming to ease tensions surrounding the recently launched 'Siri AI' technology. An EU spokesperson stated that the online meeting involved constructive exchanges on 'mutually concerning issues,' and relevant work is ongoing. Two individuals familiar with the negotiations indicated that the meeting discussed how Apple can launch the revamped Siri in Europe while avoiding potential fines of millions of dollars for violating major EU competition rules.

UK Media: Apple CEO Holds Constructive Talks with EU Technology Chief on 'Siri AI'

On July 1, traders in the federal funds rate market are ramping up their bets that the Federal Reserve may start raising interest rates as early as July. This previously unimaginable move could be disrupted by a series of economic data. The probability of a rate hike at next month's policy meeting remains low, with current interest rate swaps pricing in an increase of about 9 basis points, which corresponds to a roughly 36% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Nevertheless, this probability has risen significantly; before the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh shifted focus to price stability, the probability was nearly zero. Since the June 17 policy meeting, open interest in August federal funds rate futures—representing the size of new trading positions held by investors—has rapidly increased. The swift accumulation of new positions is predominantly leaning towards the sell side, indicating that traders are shorting the contract; if the probability of a rate hike continues to rise, such positions will benefit.

[Traders Increase Short Positions in Federal Funds Rate Futures, Betting on July Rate Hike]On July 1, traders in the federal funds rate market are ramping up their bets that the Federal Reserve may start raising interest rates as early as July. This previously unimaginable move could be disrupted by a series of economic data. The probability of a rate hike at next month's policy meeting remains low, with current interest rate swaps pricing in an increase of about 9 basis points, which corresponds to a roughly 36% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Nevertheless, this probability has risen significantly; before the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh shifted focus to price stability, the probability was nearly zero. Since the June 17 policy meeting, open interest in August federal funds rate futures—representing the size of new trading positions held by investors—has rapidly increased. The swift accumulation of new positions is predominantly leaning towards the sell side, indicating that traders are shorting the contract; if the probability of a rate hike continues to rise, such positions will benefit.

Traders Increase Short Positions in Federal Funds Rate Futures, Betting on July Rate Hike

On July 1, US artificial intelligence chip startup Etched announced that it has completed a total of $800 million in funding, revealing that its investor lineup includes leading figures in the AI field such as Peter Thiel, Geoffrey Hinton, and Fei-Fei Li. In a press release, Etched stated that the company had previously completed multiple rounds of undisclosed funding, with the latest round completed in December of last year, raising $500 million and achieving a post-money valuation of $5 billion.

[US AI Chip Startup Etched Announces $800 Million Funding with $5 Billion Valuation]On July 1, US artificial intelligence chip startup Etched announced that it has completed a total of $800 million in funding, revealing that its investor lineup includes leading figures in the AI field such as Peter Thiel, Geoffrey Hinton, and Fei-Fei Li. In a press release, Etched stated that the company had previously completed multiple rounds of undisclosed funding, with the latest round completed in December of last year, raising $500 million and achieving a post-money valuation of $5 billion.

US AI Chip Startup Etched Announces $800 Million Funding with $5 Billion Valuation

On July 1, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 33.7%. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged until September is 33.1%, with a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points at 50.0%, and a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points at 16.9%.

[Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in July at 66.3%]On July 1, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 33.7%. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged until September is 33.1%, with a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points at 50.0%, and a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points at 16.9%.

Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in July at 66.3%

On July 1, U.S. federal funds rate futures fell further, suggesting an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September.

[Interest Rate Futures Indicate 80% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in September]On July 1, U.S. federal funds rate futures fell further, suggesting an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September.

Interest Rate Futures Indicate 80% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in September

On July 1, according to Politico: A senior White House official revealed that the U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to lift export controls on the Anthropic AI model Fable tonight local time (morning of July 1 Beijing time).

[Reports Indicate Anthropic Model Fable Set to Be Unrestricted]On July 1, according to Politico: A senior White House official revealed that the U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to lift export controls on the Anthropic AI model Fable tonight local time (morning of July 1 Beijing time).

Reports Indicate Anthropic Model Fable Set to Be Unrestricted

On July 1, the commodities market concluded the first half of 2026, with precious metal prices mostly retreating after earlier highs. Spot gold has fallen over 7%, dropping more than $1,500 from its historical peak reached earlier this year. Spot silver has seen a cumulative decline of about 18%, with its price more than halved from its historical high this year. Spot platinum has dropped over 24%, and spot palladium has decreased nearly 25%. In contrast, base metals like copper reached a new high this year, with a cumulative increase of 7% in the first half; aluminum rose by 3.7%. Despite a significant pullback from its peak due to geopolitical tensions, oil prices have maintained their gains for the year, with WTI crude oil up 21.6% and Brent crude oil up 20%.

[Commodities Wrap Up First Half: Precious Metals Decline, Oil Rises Over 20%]On July 1, the commodities market concluded the first half of 2026, with precious metal prices mostly retreating after earlier highs. Spot gold has fallen over 7%, dropping more than $1,500 from its historical peak reached earlier this year. Spot silver has seen a cumulative decline of about 18%, with its price more than halved from its historical high this year. Spot platinum has dropped over 24%, and spot palladium has decreased nearly 25%. In contrast, base metals like copper reached a new high this year, with a cumulative increase of 7% in the first half; aluminum rose by 3.7%. Despite a significant pullback from its peak due to geopolitical tensions, oil prices have maintained their gains for the year, with WTI crude oil up 21.6% and Brent crude oil up 20%.

Commodities Wrap Up First Half: Precious Metals Decline, Oil Rises Over 20%

On July 1, Michael Burry, the inspiration behind the movie "The Big Short," disclosed a new round of bearish bets focused on the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors. He stated that he has shorted Tesla (TSLA.O) at around $416.22 per share, describing this as part of his assessment of an 'AI bubble.' Additionally, he has established short positions on Nvidia (NVDA.O), Caterpillar, Applied Materials, and a semiconductor ETF. Burry mentioned that these trades are part of his overall hedging strategy against the overheated valuations in AI and semiconductors, but he did not disclose specific sizes, only indicating that he entered the short position after a rebound in Tesla's stock. The market showed clear divergence in response, with related tech stocks generally rising during the trading session.

[Michael Burry Shorts AI and Semiconductor Sectors]On July 1, Michael Burry, the inspiration behind the movie "The Big Short," disclosed a new round of bearish bets focused on the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors. He stated that he has shorted Tesla (TSLA.O) at around $416.22 per share, describing this as part of his assessment of an 'AI bubble.' Additionally, he has established short positions on Nvidia (NVDA.O), Caterpillar, Applied Materials, and a semiconductor ETF. Burry mentioned that these trades are part of his overall hedging strategy against the overheated valuations in AI and semiconductors, but he did not disclose specific sizes, only indicating that he entered the short position after a rebound in Tesla's stock. The market showed clear divergence in response, with related tech stocks generally rising during the trading session.

Michael Burry Shorts AI and Semiconductor Sectors

On July 1, CME Group announced that it will launch single stock futures covering over 50 U.S. stocks on July 27.

[CME Group to Launch Single Stock Futures Covering Over 50 U.S. Stocks on July 27]On July 1, CME Group announced that it will launch single stock futures covering over 50 U.S. stocks on July 27.

CME Group to Launch Single Stock Futures Covering Over 50 U.S. Stocks on July 27

NFT game DEGEN WAR announced the completion of its seed funding round, with participation from SuperState CEO Robert Leshner, Mechanism partner Marc, Nansen CEO Alex, and others.

[DEGEN WAR announces completion of seed round fundraising]NFT game DEGEN WAR announced the completion of its seed funding round, with participation from SuperState CEO Robert Leshner, Mechanism partner Marc, Nansen CEO Alex, and others.

DEGEN WAR announces completion of seed round fundraising

Giants Wage the Context War, Reconstructing AI Moats

Preferred Stock Is Not the Trigger for Corporate Bankruptcy, MicroStrategy's Dollar Reserves Can Cover Dividend and Interest Payments Until February 2027

In the AI Era, What Kind of KOLs and Communities Will Not Be Completely Replaced?

Interview with NDV Founder Jason Huang: Piercing the AI Bubble and the MicroStrategy Myth, Seeking the Ultimate Edge in the Crypto Market

AI Stocks Plunge Violently, Is It GLM's DeepSeek Moment?

Research Report Analysis: AI Triggers MLCC Supercycle, How Many Years of Gains Can Samsung Electro-Mechanics Enjoy?

Global Tech Stocks Plunge: Another Stress Test for the AI Bull Market

Zuckerberg Enters the Prediction Market

DEGEN WAR announces completion of seed round fundraising

Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

Related Articles

All Comments0LatestHot

Trending Topics

Related Articles