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On May 26, analyst Murphy indicated that by observing the 'short-term capital on-chain activity weight' (the proportion of the dollar value represented by short-term trading volume), we can assess the current state of the BTC market. This indicator reflects the latest short-term trading behaviors such as speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has dropped to a historically low level, only seen in the bottom regions of bear markets over the past 15 years, indicating a significant cooling of short-term trading and a shift of economic value towards long-term holdings. The market is characterized by low volatility, accumulation, or clear bottom features. The analyst assesses that the current market may be in one of three stages: the bottom of a bear market; a secondary bottom, which may see one last drop; or accumulation before the start of a bull market. However, under rational judgment, the accumulation before a bull market can be temporarily ruled out. It is currently not advisable to bet all funds on a single scenario; a diversified position strategy is recommended to cope with different outcomes, as the relative position in the long-term trend indicates that Bitcoin is near the bottom.

[Analysis: Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Volume Significantly Cools, Market Nearing Bottom]On May 26, analyst Murphy indicated that by observing the 'short-term capital on-chain activity weight' (the proportion of the dollar value represented by short-term trading volume), we can assess the current state of the BTC market. This indicator reflects the latest short-term trading behaviors such as speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has dropped to a historically low level, only seen in the bottom regions of bear markets over the past 15 years, indicating a significant cooling of short-term trading and a shift of economic value towards long-term holdings. The market is characterized by low volatility, accumulation, or clear bottom features. The analyst assesses that the current market may be in one of three stages: the bottom of a bear market; a secondary bottom, which may see one last drop; or accumulation before the start of a bull market. However, under rational judgment, the accumulation before a bull market can be temporarily ruled out. It is currently not advisable to bet all funds on a single scenario; a diversified position strategy is recommended to cope with different outcomes, as the relative position in the long-term trend indicates that Bitcoin is near the bottom.

Analysis: Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Volume Significantly Cools, Market Nearing Bottom

According to a report by the Iranian Tasnim News Agency on the 26th, Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf promoted the unfreezing of $24 billion in Iranian funds during his visit to Qatar. Iran demands that half of the funds be unfrozen immediately after the release of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, with the remaining amount to be unfrozen within 60 days. (Xinhua News Agency)

[Iran Seeks to Unfreeze $24 Billion in Funds]According to a report by the Iranian Tasnim News Agency on the 26th, Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf promoted the unfreezing of $24 billion in Iranian funds during his visit to Qatar. Iran demands that half of the funds be unfrozen immediately after the release of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, with the remaining amount to be unfrozen within 60 days. (Xinhua News Agency)

Iran Seeks to Unfreeze $24 Billion in Funds

On May 26, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that some foreign media outlets claimed Iran and the United States had reached a 14-point understanding memorandum, which is "pure fabrication and baseless." The report stated that several hours earlier, some media claimed to have obtained the final draft of the Iran-U.S. understanding memorandum, which involved issues such as opening the Strait of Hormuz, initiating nuclear negotiations, and unfreezing Iran's frozen assets, but these claims are not true. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, the probability of a "permanent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran" on the prediction market Polymarket has seen a short-term decline, with the probability being 26% before May 31 and 56% before June 30.

[Iranian State Media Denies Understanding Memorandum with the U.S.]On May 26, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that some foreign media outlets claimed Iran and the United States had reached a 14-point understanding memorandum, which is "pure fabrication and baseless." The report stated that several hours earlier, some media claimed to have obtained the final draft of the Iran-U.S. understanding memorandum, which involved issues such as opening the Strait of Hormuz, initiating nuclear negotiations, and unfreezing Iran's frozen assets, but these claims are not true. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, the probability of a "permanent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran" on the prediction market Polymarket has seen a short-term decline, with the probability being 26% before May 31 and 56% before June 30.

Iranian State Media Denies Understanding Memorandum with the U.S.

On May 26, Reuters reported that the EU plans to impose a fine on Google amounting to nearly €1 billion, which would be the largest fine issued under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). An official announcement is expected before the summer break. The investigation was formally launched in March 2025, with the core accusation being that Google prioritizes its own services in search results, violating relevant DMA regulations. The European Commission stated that its primary goal is to ensure Google's compliance rather than merely pursuing fines, but emphasized that it will not hesitate in advancing subsequent steps. Google criticized the DMA regulations for causing the 'largest downgrade in history' to its search products and expressed a desire to resolve the dispute as soon as possible.

[EU Plans to Fine Google Nearly €1 Billion]On May 26, Reuters reported that the EU plans to impose a fine on Google amounting to nearly €1 billion, which would be the largest fine issued under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). An official announcement is expected before the summer break. The investigation was formally launched in March 2025, with the core accusation being that Google prioritizes its own services in search results, violating relevant DMA regulations. The European Commission stated that its primary goal is to ensure Google's compliance rather than merely pursuing fines, but emphasized that it will not hesitate in advancing subsequent steps. Google criticized the DMA regulations for causing the 'largest downgrade in history' to its search products and expressed a desire to resolve the dispute as soon as possible.

EU Plans to Fine Google Nearly €1 Billion

On May 26, data from Arkham revealed that 21Shares and Bitwise ETF collectively purchased $68 million worth of HYPE last week.

[21Shares and Bitwise ETF Purchased $68 Million in HYPE Last Week]On May 26, data from Arkham revealed that 21Shares and Bitwise ETF collectively purchased $68 million worth of HYPE last week.

21Shares and Bitwise ETF Purchased $68 Million in HYPE Last Week

On May 26, according to AXIOS: An assistant to Secretary of State Rubio has been promoted to a senior national security position at the White House.

[Assistant to Secretary of State Rubio Promoted to Senior National Security Position at the White House]On May 26, according to AXIOS: An assistant to Secretary of State Rubio has been promoted to a senior national security position at the White House.

Assistant to Secretary of State Rubio Promoted to Senior National Security Position at the White House

On May 26, Bitwise announced that its subsidiary Bitwise Europe GmbH has launched the Bitwise Canton ETP (BWCC), which is listed on Deutsche Börse's electronic spot trading platform, Deutsche Börse Xetra. This product allows trading through regular brokerage accounts and aims to provide exposure to the native token CC of the Canton Network.

[Bitwise Launches Canton Exchange Trading Product 'BWCC']On May 26, Bitwise announced that its subsidiary Bitwise Europe GmbH has launched the Bitwise Canton ETP (BWCC), which is listed on Deutsche Börse's electronic spot trading platform, Deutsche Börse Xetra. This product allows trading through regular brokerage accounts and aims to provide exposure to the native token CC of the Canton Network.

Bitwise Launches Canton Exchange Trading Product 'BWCC'

According to monitoring by Dongcha Beating, sources reveal that ByteDance is offering low-priced stock options linked to its Seed AI department for employees. This marks the first time ByteDance has issued equity incentives for a specific business unit. The incentive mechanism allows employees to share in the growth benefits of the Seed department without being diluted by the performance of other business lines within ByteDance. Sources indicate that ByteDance has opened the subscription rights for 'Doubao Stock' to Seed employees worldwide this month, priced at $13 per share. Since being granted at approximately $10 per share at the end of last year, the value of Doubao Stock has increased by nearly 30%.

[ByteDance Issues Equity Incentives for Specific Business Unit for the First Time]According to monitoring by Dongcha Beating, sources reveal that ByteDance is offering low-priced stock options linked to its Seed AI department for employees. This marks the first time ByteDance has issued equity incentives for a specific business unit. The incentive mechanism allows employees to share in the growth benefits of the Seed department without being diluted by the performance of other business lines within ByteDance. Sources indicate that ByteDance has opened the subscription rights for 'Doubao Stock' to Seed employees worldwide this month, priced at $13 per share. Since being granted at approximately $10 per share at the end of last year, the value of Doubao Stock has increased by nearly 30%.

ByteDance Issues Equity Incentives for Specific Business Unit for the First Time

On May 26, Strive ($SATA), a Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury company, reached a 3-month high, soaring to $100.53.

[Strive Stock Price Surpasses $100, Reaches 3-Month High]On May 26, Strive ($SATA), a Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury company, reached a 3-month high, soaring to $100.53.

Strive Stock Price Surpasses $100, Reaches 3-Month High

Yuriy Sorokin, founder and CEO of trading robot platform 3Commas, released an investigation update on API keys and exchange attacks. Many users of Binance, OKX, FTX and some other exchanges have experienced unauthorized attacks initiated through API keys authorized transaction. 3Commas stated that it has collected a lot of information from affected users. According to this information, each case is different. A large number of high-net-worth individuals who use 3Commas have not been affected, indicating that it is not a loophole in the 3Commas system.

Detail

【3Commas: API key and exchange attacks are not caused by system vulnerabilities but hacked attacks】Yuriy Sorokin, founder and CEO of trading robot platform 3Commas, released an investigation update on API keys and exchange attacks. Many users of Binance, OKX, FTX and some other exchanges have experienced unauthorized attacks initiated through API keys authorized transaction. 3Commas stated that it has collected a lot of information from affected users. According to this information, each case is different. A large number of high-net-worth individuals who use 3Commas have not been affected, indicating that it is not a loophole in the 3Commas system.

3Commas: API key and exchange attacks are not caused by system vulnerabilities but hacked attacks

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3Commas: API key and exchange attacks are not caused by system vulnerabilities but hacked attacks

Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

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