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On April 7, independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov released a study revealing that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are currently at a loss. The report analyzed 2.5 million wallet addresses and found that over the past year, only 2% of traders on the platform have accumulated profits exceeding $1,000, and only 0.033% (or 840 addresses) have made profits of $100,000 on Polymarket. 'Most traders come to trade for a while and then leave,' the report concluded. The study found that the probability of making a monthly profit of $5,000 declines month by month. Among 6,600 traders who averaged over $5,000 in monthly profits, only 2.6% remained active for more than a year.

[Data: 84% of Traders on Polymarket Are in Loss]On April 7, independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov released a study revealing that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are currently at a loss. The report analyzed 2.5 million wallet addresses and found that over the past year, only 2% of traders on the platform have accumulated profits exceeding $1,000, and only 0.033% (or 840 addresses) have made profits of $100,000 on Polymarket. 'Most traders come to trade for a while and then leave,' the report concluded. The study found that the probability of making a monthly profit of $5,000 declines month by month. Among 6,600 traders who averaged over $5,000 in monthly profits, only 2.6% remained active for more than a year.

Data: 84% of Traders on Polymarket Are in Loss

On April 7, amid the escalating conflict in Iran and significant restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations for a policy shift within the year began to show clear signs of wavering. Federal Reserve officials have unusually emphasized that 'inflation takes precedence over employment,' indicating that the current policy framework has shifted from a previous 'balanced dual mandate' to a unilateral defense under supply shocks. Meanwhile, the White House's attempt to use productivity gains from AI as a potential reason for interest rate cuts actually reflects internal policy disagreements regarding future inflation paths, rather than a genuine maturity of easing conditions. From a policy and international response perspective, the IMF has clearly stated that the world is entering a phase of 'high inflation, low growth.' The contraction in energy supply is not limited to oil and gas but is starting to permeate fertilizers, transportation, and industrial chains, giving inflation a stronger stickiness. Even if short-term conflicts cool down, the supply recovery cycle will still be prolonged, indicating that inflationary pressures are unlikely to decline rapidly, further reinforcing the rationale for central banks to maintain a tightening stance. Cross-market capital behaviors have begun to reflect this shift. Expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed, and service sector prices are rising again, keeping real interest rate expectations high and suppressing the valuation basis for risk assets. At the same time, rising energy prices resonate with geopolitical risks, leading funds to favor defensive and cash flow assets over high-volatility risk exposures. Returning to the structure of the cryptocurrency market, BTC is currently operating within a clear liquidity range. The upper level around $69,800 has formed a high-density short liquidation and passive liquidity accumulation zone, representing a typical pressure area and the main resistance point for recent rebounds; only if it can effectively stabilize above this level will it indicate that the market is willing to take on risk again. On the downside, there is accumulation of long liquidations and liquidity support in the $66,000 to $65,000 range, forming a short-term defensive zone, which, if breached, will trigger a chain reaction of deleveraging. Current prices are repeatedly testing the upper edge but have not been able to sustain, indicating that capital remains conservative under macro uncertainty, preferring to harvest liquidity within the range rather than pushing for a trend breakthrough.

[Bitunix Analyst: Inflation Reshapes Policy Path, Energy Supply Shock Spreads, BTC Maintains Volatile Pattern]On April 7, amid the escalating conflict in Iran and significant restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations for a policy shift within the year began to show clear signs of wavering. Federal Reserve officials have unusually emphasized that 'inflation takes precedence over employment,' indicating that the current policy framework has shifted from a previous 'balanced dual mandate' to a unilateral defense under supply shocks. Meanwhile, the White House's attempt to use productivity gains from AI as a potential reason for interest rate cuts actually reflects internal policy disagreements regarding future inflation paths, rather than a genuine maturity of easing conditions. From a policy and international response perspective, the IMF has clearly stated that the world is entering a phase of 'high inflation, low growth.' The contraction in energy supply is not limited to oil and gas but is starting to permeate fertilizers, transportation, and industrial chains, giving inflation a stronger stickiness. Even if short-term conflicts cool down, the supply recovery cycle will still be prolonged, indicating that inflationary pressures are unlikely to decline rapidly, further reinforcing the rationale for central banks to maintain a tightening stance. Cross-market capital behaviors have begun to reflect this shift. Expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed, and service sector prices are rising again, keeping real interest rate expectations high and suppressing the valuation basis for risk assets. At the same time, rising energy prices resonate with geopolitical risks, leading funds to favor defensive and cash flow assets over high-volatility risk exposures. Returning to the structure of the cryptocurrency market, BTC is currently operating within a clear liquidity range. The upper level around $69,800 has formed a high-density short liquidation and passive liquidity accumulation zone, representing a typical pressure area and the main resistance point for recent rebounds; only if it can effectively stabilize above this level will it indicate that the market is willing to take on risk again. On the downside, there is accumulation of long liquidations and liquidity support in the $66,000 to $65,000 range, forming a short-term defensive zone, which, if breached, will trigger a chain reaction of deleveraging. Current prices are repeatedly testing the upper edge but have not been able to sustain, indicating that capital remains conservative under macro uncertainty, preferring to harvest liquidity within the range rather than pushing for a trend breakthrough.

Bitunix Analyst: Inflation Reshapes Policy Path, Energy Supply Shock Spreads, BTC Maintains Volatile Pattern

On April 7, according to Axios: A U.S. official stated that Iran's response is 'tough,' but the White House views it as a negotiation strategy rather than a rejection. We are currently communicating with the Iranians regarding amendments and redrafting. We are at a critical moment in negotiations, and anything could happen. (Jinshi)

[U.S. Officials: Engaging with Iranians on Amendments and Redrafting]On April 7, according to Axios: A U.S. official stated that Iran's response is 'tough,' but the White House views it as a negotiation strategy rather than a rejection. We are currently communicating with the Iranians regarding amendments and redrafting. We are at a critical moment in negotiations, and anything could happen. (Jinshi)

U.S. Officials: Engaging with Iranians on Amendments and Redrafting

On April 7, according to official news from the Polygon Foundation, the Giugliano hard fork upgrade will take place on the Polygon mainnet around 22:00 Beijing time on April 8 at block height 85,268,500. This upgrade will bring the following improvements: allowing producers to announce blocks earlier for faster finality; directly adding fee parameters to the block header; and introducing new RPC interfaces to support fee data. The officials remind all node operators that they must upgrade Bor to version 2.7.0 or Erigon to version 3.5.0 to ensure normal operation.

[Polygon Mainnet to Undergo Giugliano Upgrade on April 8, Nodes Must Upgrade Promptly]On April 7, according to official news from the Polygon Foundation, the Giugliano hard fork upgrade will take place on the Polygon mainnet around 22:00 Beijing time on April 8 at block height 85,268,500. This upgrade will bring the following improvements: allowing producers to announce blocks earlier for faster finality; directly adding fee parameters to the block header; and introducing new RPC interfaces to support fee data. The officials remind all node operators that they must upgrade Bor to version 2.7.0 or Erigon to version 3.5.0 to ensure normal operation.

Polygon Mainnet to Undergo Giugliano Upgrade on April 8, Nodes Must Upgrade Promptly

According to monitoring by 1M AI News, OpenAI has released a 13-page policy white paper titled "Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age," proposing a comprehensive reform plan for the economic and social order following the advent of superintelligence. Altman stated in an interview with Axios that superintelligence is imminent, and incremental policy adjustments are insufficient, necessitating a "new social contract at the level of progressive eras and new policies." The white paper focuses on three goals: broadly sharing prosperity, reducing risks, and universalizing AI usage rights. Core proposals include: 1. Tax reform: As AI replaces human labor, wage taxes (currently the main source of funding for social security, Medicare, and other programs) will gradually decline, necessitating a shift towards higher taxes on capital gains and corporate income, and exploring an "automation labor tax," commonly referred to as a robot tax. 2. Universal AI Wealth Fund: Establishing a national public wealth fund modeled after the Alaska Permanent Fund (which distributes oil revenue to residents), allowing every citizen to directly hold a share of AI-driven economic growth, with funding partly sourced from contributions by AI companies. 3. Four-day workweek: Transforming productivity gains from AI into "efficiency dividends," recommending that the government pilot a 32-hour workweek with unchanged salaries and maintained output levels. 4. Automatic safety net trigger mechanism: Automatically increasing unemployment benefits, wage insurance, and cash assistance when AI-related unemployment metrics hit preset thresholds, gradually phasing out once the job market recovers. 5. Positioning AI usage rights as a "fundamental right to participate in the modern economy." The white paper also acknowledges the dangers of AI systems that "cannot be easily recalled" due to their autonomy and self-replicating capabilities, and includes emergency plans for uncontrolled AI that require government collaboration. Altman warned that significant cyberattacks on recent AI models are "entirely possible," and creating new pathogens using AI is "no longer a theoretical hypothesis." Altman stated, "Some ideas will be good, some will be bad, but we do feel a sense of urgency." OpenAI is simultaneously launching a research funding program, offering scholarships of up to $100,000 and API credits of up to $1 million for related policy research, and will hold an OpenAI Workshop in Washington in May to discuss these issues. OpenAI is preparing for an IPO, while Congress is drafting AI legislation, making the timing of the white paper's release particularly significant. By proactively proposing taxes on AI companies and establishing redistribution mechanisms while its technology may disrupt the job market, OpenAI is not only making a preemptive gesture towards regulation but also adding a layer of "responsible AI" narrative to its IPO roadshow.

[OpenAI Releases 13-Page Policy White Paper Proposing Robot Tax, Universal AI Wealth Fund, and Four-Day Workweek]According to monitoring by 1M AI News, OpenAI has released a 13-page policy white paper titled "Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age," proposing a comprehensive reform plan for the economic and social order following the advent of superintelligence. Altman stated in an interview with Axios that superintelligence is imminent, and incremental policy adjustments are insufficient, necessitating a "new social contract at the level of progressive eras and new policies." The white paper focuses on three goals: broadly sharing prosperity, reducing risks, and universalizing AI usage rights. Core proposals include: 1. Tax reform: As AI replaces human labor, wage taxes (currently the main source of funding for social security, Medicare, and other programs) will gradually decline, necessitating a shift towards higher taxes on capital gains and corporate income, and exploring an "automation labor tax," commonly referred to as a robot tax. 2. Universal AI Wealth Fund: Establishing a national public wealth fund modeled after the Alaska Permanent Fund (which distributes oil revenue to residents), allowing every citizen to directly hold a share of AI-driven economic growth, with funding partly sourced from contributions by AI companies. 3. Four-day workweek: Transforming productivity gains from AI into "efficiency dividends," recommending that the government pilot a 32-hour workweek with unchanged salaries and maintained output levels. 4. Automatic safety net trigger mechanism: Automatically increasing unemployment benefits, wage insurance, and cash assistance when AI-related unemployment metrics hit preset thresholds, gradually phasing out once the job market recovers. 5. Positioning AI usage rights as a "fundamental right to participate in the modern economy." The white paper also acknowledges the dangers of AI systems that "cannot be easily recalled" due to their autonomy and self-replicating capabilities, and includes emergency plans for uncontrolled AI that require government collaboration. Altman warned that significant cyberattacks on recent AI models are "entirely possible," and creating new pathogens using AI is "no longer a theoretical hypothesis." Altman stated, "Some ideas will be good, some will be bad, but we do feel a sense of urgency." OpenAI is simultaneously launching a research funding program, offering scholarships of up to $100,000 and API credits of up to $1 million for related policy research, and will hold an OpenAI Workshop in Washington in May to discuss these issues. OpenAI is preparing for an IPO, while Congress is drafting AI legislation, making the timing of the white paper's release particularly significant. By proactively proposing taxes on AI companies and establishing redistribution mechanisms while its technology may disrupt the job market, OpenAI is not only making a preemptive gesture towards regulation but also adding a layer of "responsible AI" narrative to its IPO roadshow.

OpenAI Releases 13-Page Policy White Paper Proposing Robot Tax, Universal AI Wealth Fund, and Four-Day Workweek

On April 7, the strategic advisor to Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf commented on President Trump's '48-hour ultimatum,' stating, 'Trump has about 20 hours left to either surrender to Iran or his allies will regress to the Stone Age. We will never back down.'

[Iranian Parliament Speaker's Strategic Advisor Issues Ultimatum to Trump: Surrender or Allies Will Regress to Stone Age]On April 7, the strategic advisor to Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf commented on President Trump's '48-hour ultimatum,' stating, 'Trump has about 20 hours left to either surrender to Iran or his allies will regress to the Stone Age. We will never back down.'

Iranian Parliament Speaker's Strategic Advisor Issues Ultimatum to Trump: Surrender or Allies Will Regress to Stone Age

On April 7, Piedao reported that 32.4 million wstUSR (40% of the illegally minted 80 million $USR) held by attackers have been destroyed. Through direct destruction and blacklisting, the total amount of illegally minted USR has been reduced by approximately 46 million.

[Piedao: 32.4 Million wstUSR Held by Attackers Have Been Destroyed]On April 7, Piedao reported that 32.4 million wstUSR (40% of the illegally minted 80 million $USR) held by attackers have been destroyed. Through direct destruction and blacklisting, the total amount of illegally minted USR has been reduced by approximately 46 million.

Piedao: 32.4 Million wstUSR Held by Attackers Have Been Destroyed

On April 7, PeckShield reported that 32.4 million wstUSR (40% of the illegally minted 80 million $USR) held by attackers have been destroyed. Through direct destruction and blacklisting, the total amount of illegally minted USR has been reduced by approximately 46 million.

[PeckShield: 32.4 Million wstUSR Held by USR Attackers Have Been Destroyed]On April 7, PeckShield reported that 32.4 million wstUSR (40% of the illegally minted 80 million $USR) held by attackers have been destroyed. Through direct destruction and blacklisting, the total amount of illegally minted USR has been reduced by approximately 46 million.

PeckShield: 32.4 Million wstUSR Held by USR Attackers Have Been Destroyed

According to monitoring by 1M AI News, three early employees of OpenAI have teamed up with two industry professionals to establish a venture capital fund named Zero Shot, targeting a size of $100 million. The first closing has already raised $20 million and several investments have been completed. The fund's name is derived from the AI term 'zero-shot learning.' The three co-founding partners from OpenAI are: Evan Morikawa, former head of application engineering at OpenAI, who experienced the release cycles of DALL·E, ChatGPT, and Codex, and is now with the robotics startup Generalist; Andrew Mayne, OpenAI's first prompt engineer and host of The OpenAI Podcast, who founded the AI deployment consulting firm Interdimensional; and Shawn Jain, a former researcher at OpenAI who transitioned to venture capital and founded the GenAI company Synthefy. The other two partners are Kelly Kovacs, founding partner of the growth fund 01A under former Twitter CEO Dick Costolo, and Brett Rounsaville, who has worked at Twitter and Disney. Invested projects include Worktrace AI, an enterprise automation platform founded by former OpenAI product manager Angela Jiang (seed round of about $10 million, with investors including Mira Murati and OpenAI's own fund), and Foundry Robotics, an AI factory robotics company (seed round of $13.5 million, led by Khosla Ventures), with a third project still in stealth mode. It may be more interesting to note what they choose not to invest in. Mayne has explicitly expressed skepticism towards most vibe coding platforms, arguing that advancements in programming capabilities by model vendors will soon render these platforms' paid subscriptions unnecessary. Morikawa is not optimistic about the current surge of 'robot video training data' companies, stating that the research community has yet to solve the transfer gap from video to physical entities, and that 'many companies are betting that the research community will solve this issue, but we are far from achieving that.' Mayne also holds a skeptical view towards 'digital twin' startups, having conducted due diligence and built a reasoning model to test, concluding that the performance of ordinary large language models is roughly the same. The fund's advisory board includes Diane Yoon, former head of HR at OpenAI; Steve Dowling, former head of communications (also a former communications head at Apple); and Luke Miller, former head of product.

[OpenAI Early Employees Establish $100 Million VC Fund Zero Shot, Bearish on Vibe Coding and Robot Video Data]According to monitoring by 1M AI News, three early employees of OpenAI have teamed up with two industry professionals to establish a venture capital fund named Zero Shot, targeting a size of $100 million. The first closing has already raised $20 million and several investments have been completed. The fund's name is derived from the AI term 'zero-shot learning.' The three co-founding partners from OpenAI are: Evan Morikawa, former head of application engineering at OpenAI, who experienced the release cycles of DALL·E, ChatGPT, and Codex, and is now with the robotics startup Generalist; Andrew Mayne, OpenAI's first prompt engineer and host of The OpenAI Podcast, who founded the AI deployment consulting firm Interdimensional; and Shawn Jain, a former researcher at OpenAI who transitioned to venture capital and founded the GenAI company Synthefy. The other two partners are Kelly Kovacs, founding partner of the growth fund 01A under former Twitter CEO Dick Costolo, and Brett Rounsaville, who has worked at Twitter and Disney. Invested projects include Worktrace AI, an enterprise automation platform founded by former OpenAI product manager Angela Jiang (seed round of about $10 million, with investors including Mira Murati and OpenAI's own fund), and Foundry Robotics, an AI factory robotics company (seed round of $13.5 million, led by Khosla Ventures), with a third project still in stealth mode. It may be more interesting to note what they choose not to invest in. Mayne has explicitly expressed skepticism towards most vibe coding platforms, arguing that advancements in programming capabilities by model vendors will soon render these platforms' paid subscriptions unnecessary. Morikawa is not optimistic about the current surge of 'robot video training data' companies, stating that the research community has yet to solve the transfer gap from video to physical entities, and that 'many companies are betting that the research community will solve this issue, but we are far from achieving that.' Mayne also holds a skeptical view towards 'digital twin' startups, having conducted due diligence and built a reasoning model to test, concluding that the performance of ordinary large language models is roughly the same. The fund's advisory board includes Diane Yoon, former head of HR at OpenAI; Steve Dowling, former head of communications (also a former communications head at Apple); and Luke Miller, former head of product.

OpenAI Early Employees Establish $100 Million VC Fund Zero Shot, Bearish on Vibe Coding and Robot Video Data

FTX's derivatives wing withdrew a proposed plan to directly settle crypto derivatives products from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with the matter. LedgerX, which does business as FTX US Derivatives after being acquired in 2021, filed a plan to directly settle crypto derivatives, cutting out intermediaries, earlier this year. The move met with opposition from traditional financial players, such as Cboe, which warned that there may be investor safeguard and protection concerns. The proposal was under review by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees derivatives products in the U.S. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, while not endorsing the plan directly, nonetheless called it "unique" earlier this year.

Detail

【FTX withdraws US CFTC derivatives clearing plan: Bloomberg】FTX's derivatives wing withdrew a proposed plan to directly settle crypto derivatives products from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with the matter. LedgerX, which does business as FTX US Derivatives after being acquired in 2021, filed a plan to directly settle crypto derivatives, cutting out intermediaries, earlier this year. The move met with opposition from traditional financial players, such as Cboe, which warned that there may be investor safeguard and protection concerns. The proposal was under review by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees derivatives products in the U.S. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, while not endorsing the plan directly, nonetheless called it "unique" earlier this year.

FTX withdraws US CFTC derivatives clearing plan: Bloomberg

Article

Arc Blockchain Releases Post-Quantum Cryptography Roadmap

China's AI Model Usage Surges Over 31%, Outpacing the U.S. for Five Consecutive Weeks

Software Engineering Job Openings Reach Three-Year High; a16z Co-Founder Andreessen Calls AI Unemployment Claims 'Completely False'

Santiment: Bitcoin Shows Short-Term Price Top Signal at Weekend Close

Iranian Senior Official: Iran Will Not Accept 'Diktat'

FTX withdraws US CFTC derivatives clearing plan: Bloomberg

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