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On April 10, foreign exchange analyst Carter Johnson stated that under the market conditions following the release of CPI data, the US Dollar Spot Index has declined by approximately 1.4% this week, likely marking its largest weekly drop since January. In terms of clear macro trading strategies during the US-Iran conflict, buying dollars and oil has proven to be quite effective. However, as the foreign exchange market enters the next phase of trading based on news headlines (this time regarding negotiations under a fragile ceasefire), this strategy will face challenges.

[Analysis: US-Iran Negotiations as a New Variable Challenge Dollar and Oil Buying Strategies]On April 10, foreign exchange analyst Carter Johnson stated that under the market conditions following the release of CPI data, the US Dollar Spot Index has declined by approximately 1.4% this week, likely marking its largest weekly drop since January. In terms of clear macro trading strategies during the US-Iran conflict, buying dollars and oil has proven to be quite effective. However, as the foreign exchange market enters the next phase of trading based on news headlines (this time regarding negotiations under a fragile ceasefire), this strategy will face challenges.

Analysis: US-Iran Negotiations as a New Variable Challenge Dollar and Oil Buying Strategies

On April 10, following the release of the U.S. March CPI data, market pricing indicates that bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve within the year have increased. (Jin Shi)

[Market Bets on Fed Rate Cut Increase After CPI Release]On April 10, following the release of the U.S. March CPI data, market pricing indicates that bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve within the year have increased. (Jin Shi)

Market Bets on Fed Rate Cut Increase After CPI Release

On April 10, the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate recorded 3.3%, with the increase in gasoline prices accounting for nearly three-quarters of the rise in the U.S. CPI. (Jin Shi)

[Gasoline Price Increase Accounts for Nearly Three-Quarters of U.S. CPI Rise]On April 10, the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate recorded 3.3%, with the increase in gasoline prices accounting for nearly three-quarters of the rise in the U.S. CPI. (Jin Shi)

Gasoline Price Increase Accounts for Nearly Three-Quarters of U.S. CPI Rise

On April 10, the U.S. reported that the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for March was 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, aligning with market expectations of 3.3%, up from a previous value of 2.40%. The seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month for March recorded a rise of 0.9%, the highest since June 2022, also meeting market expectations. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the record increase in gasoline prices contributed to nearly three-quarters of the CPI increase for the month. Another measure, excluding food and energy costs, saw a month-on-month increase slow to 0.2%. (Jin Shi)

[U.S. March Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year at 3.3%, Meeting Expectations]On April 10, the U.S. reported that the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for March was 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, aligning with market expectations of 3.3%, up from a previous value of 2.40%. The seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month for March recorded a rise of 0.9%, the highest since June 2022, also meeting market expectations. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the record increase in gasoline prices contributed to nearly three-quarters of the CPI increase for the month. Another measure, excluding food and energy costs, saw a month-on-month increase slow to 0.2%. (Jin Shi)

U.S. March Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year at 3.3%, Meeting Expectations

On April 10, following the release of the U.S. March CPI data, market pricing indicated an increase in bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve within the year.

[Market Bets on Fed Rate Cut Increase After CPI Release]On April 10, following the release of the U.S. March CPI data, market pricing indicated an increase in bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve within the year.

On April 10, Yu Wai-man, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), stated that after the official launch of stablecoins in the market, the HKMA will conduct ongoing and effective supervision based on the business and risk nature of individual licensees. This will involve on-site inspections, off-site reviews, independent assessments, and meetings with the management of the licensees to ensure compliance with relevant regulatory requirements. Regarding the future issuance of licenses and the timing, Yu emphasized that the HKMA maintains an open yet cautious approach and currently has no clear inclination. 'However, we must reiterate that considering the risks involved in issuance, user protection, and the market's capacity and long-term development, there are quite high thresholds for licensing. Even if licenses are issued in the future, the overall number will be very limited. The operational effectiveness of the two licenses after implementation and the market's response will also help us make a more comprehensive assessment,' Yu said. (Shanghai Securities Journal)

[HKMA's Yu Wai-man: Future Licenses Will Be Limited in Number]On April 10, Yu Wai-man, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), stated that after the official launch of stablecoins in the market, the HKMA will conduct ongoing and effective supervision based on the business and risk nature of individual licensees. This will involve on-site inspections, off-site reviews, independent assessments, and meetings with the management of the licensees to ensure compliance with relevant regulatory requirements. Regarding the future issuance of licenses and the timing, Yu emphasized that the HKMA maintains an open yet cautious approach and currently has no clear inclination. 'However, we must reiterate that considering the risks involved in issuance, user protection, and the market's capacity and long-term development, there are quite high thresholds for licensing. Even if licenses are issued in the future, the overall number will be very limited. The operational effectiveness of the two licenses after implementation and the market's response will also help us make a more comprehensive assessment,' Yu said. (Shanghai Securities Journal)

HKMA's Yu Wai-man: Future Licenses Will Be Limited in Number

On April 10, Federal Reserve official Daly stated that before the oil price shock, the U.S. already had work to do to address inflation, and this work now requires more time. If the conflict in Iran is resolved quickly and oil prices decline, interest rate cuts are 'not out of the question'; however, if inflation remains above expectations for an extended period, the Fed will remain cautious until it is confident that the inflation issue has been resolved. She believes the likelihood of rate hikes is lower than that of rate cuts or maintaining current rates. Daly pointed out that persistently high oil prices will mean rising inflation but will also impact economic growth. She has already seen higher prices being transmitted into the economy, leading people to reduce travel due to concerns about rising costs. However, she emphasized that this is not a fundamental price increase at the moment. She believes it is necessary to observe how the conflict develops and how companies pass on price increases. She noted that the real issue is whether a ceasefire can be sustained; if it can, then the CPI data becomes irrelevant; high inflation data itself would not surprise anyone. She stressed the importance of reducing the inflation rate to 2%, but doing so at the expense of employment would put families in distress. Currently, the risks to the Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are essentially balanced.

[Fed's Daly Warns of High Inflation Ahead of CPI Data Release]On April 10, Federal Reserve official Daly stated that before the oil price shock, the U.S. already had work to do to address inflation, and this work now requires more time. If the conflict in Iran is resolved quickly and oil prices decline, interest rate cuts are 'not out of the question'; however, if inflation remains above expectations for an extended period, the Fed will remain cautious until it is confident that the inflation issue has been resolved. She believes the likelihood of rate hikes is lower than that of rate cuts or maintaining current rates. Daly pointed out that persistently high oil prices will mean rising inflation but will also impact economic growth. She has already seen higher prices being transmitted into the economy, leading people to reduce travel due to concerns about rising costs. However, she emphasized that this is not a fundamental price increase at the moment. She believes it is necessary to observe how the conflict develops and how companies pass on price increases. She noted that the real issue is whether a ceasefire can be sustained; if it can, then the CPI data becomes irrelevant; high inflation data itself would not surprise anyone. She stressed the importance of reducing the inflation rate to 2%, but doing so at the expense of employment would put families in distress. Currently, the risks to the Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are essentially balanced.

Fed's Daly Warns of High Inflation Ahead of CPI Data Release

On April 10, it was reported that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 3.3% year-on-year, marking the highest level since May 2024. The forecast was 3.4%, while the previous value was 2.4%. The seasonally adjusted CPI for March rose by 0.9% month-on-month, matching expectations of 0.9%, compared to the previous value of 0.30%.

[US March CPI Increases 3.3% Year-on-Year, Highest Since May 2024]On April 10, it was reported that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 3.3% year-on-year, marking the highest level since May 2024. The forecast was 3.4%, while the previous value was 2.4%. The seasonally adjusted CPI for March rose by 0.9% month-on-month, matching expectations of 0.9%, compared to the previous value of 0.30%.

US March CPI Increases 3.3% Year-on-Year, Highest Since May 2024

On April 10, it was reported that the U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.6% year-on-year in March, slightly below the estimated 2.7%, and up from the previous value of 2.5%. Month-on-month, it rose by 0.2%, compared to an estimate of 0.3%.

[U.S. Core CPI in March Increases 2.6% Year-on-Year, Estimated at 2.7%]On April 10, it was reported that the U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.6% year-on-year in March, slightly below the estimated 2.7%, and up from the previous value of 2.5%. Month-on-month, it rose by 0.2%, compared to an estimate of 0.3%.

U.S. Core CPI in March Increases 2.6% Year-on-Year, Estimated at 2.7%

WatcherGuru tweeted that JP Morgan says the S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if the Federal Reserve only raises interest rates by 50bps on Wednesday.

Detail

【JP Morgan: S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if Fed only raises interest rates by 50bps】WatcherGuru tweeted that JP Morgan says the S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if the Federal Reserve only raises interest rates by 50bps on Wednesday.

JP Morgan: S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if Fed only raises interest rates by 50bps

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BTC broke through 72000  USDT

JP Morgan: S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if Fed only raises interest rates by 50bps

Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

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