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On May 25, while global market attention remains focused on US-Iran negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, investors are increasingly turning their attention to a deeper issue: whether global central banks can continue to stabilize markets as they have over the past decade in the face of high inflation, high interest rates, and sovereign debt risks. Although a US-Iran agreement is gradually coming to light, including limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day framework agreement, and the resumption of nuclear negotiations, significant differences remain on core issues such as highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and the Lebanese front. This indicates that while the market is beginning to trade on 'de-escalation of war,' funds have not truly returned to a full risk-on mode. More importantly, the market is now witnessing a phenomenon that has rarely appeared in the past two years: 'rate hike expectations are back.' The US interest rate futures market has begun pricing in a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve as early as October, with a complete pricing of a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller has clearly stated that if inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed will still need to raise rates; the European Central Bank has also begun direct discussions about the possibility of a rate hike in June. This means that the narrative of 'rate cuts saving the market' that the market had initially anticipated is now being replaced by 'high rates becoming permanent.' The core issue behind this is that the global bond market is beginning to push back against the logic of 'central banks always providing a safety net' that has prevailed for over a decade. El-Erian has pointed out the biggest risk: in the past, whether during financial crises, pandemics, or wars, the market believed that central banks would ultimately rescue risk assets through rate cuts, quantitative easing, and fiscal stimulus, making 'buying the dip' the most successful trading strategy globally. However, now, high inflation, high debt, and sovereign credit pressures are starting to limit central banks' ability to intervene, and the market is facing a situation where 'policies may want to help, but may not be able to.' This is also the reason behind the recent significant divergence in global assets. On one hand, US tech and AI stocks remain elevated due to liquidity inertia and growth expectations; on the other hand, US Treasury yields, Japanese long bonds, and the European bond market have begun to experience significant volatility. This indicates that funds are reassessing: if central banks can no longer provide unlimited liquidity in the future, then all currently overvalued assets will have to face pressures from 'real interest rates' and 'cash flow discounting.' In the cryptocurrency market, BTC will still be supported in the short term by a recovery in risk appetite due to the easing Middle East situation, but if global interest rate markets continue to reflect rate hike expectations, high-leverage and high-valuation assets will still face liquidity contraction pressures. The biggest variable in the market is no longer just war, but whether the influence of global policy tools on the market is beginning to decline.

[Bitunix Analyst: Progress in US-Iran Ceasefire Continues, but Global Markets Now Concerned Beyond Just War]On May 25, while global market attention remains focused on US-Iran negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, investors are increasingly turning their attention to a deeper issue: whether global central banks can continue to stabilize markets as they have over the past decade in the face of high inflation, high interest rates, and sovereign debt risks. Although a US-Iran agreement is gradually coming to light, including limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day framework agreement, and the resumption of nuclear negotiations, significant differences remain on core issues such as highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and the Lebanese front. This indicates that while the market is beginning to trade on 'de-escalation of war,' funds have not truly returned to a full risk-on mode. More importantly, the market is now witnessing a phenomenon that has rarely appeared in the past two years: 'rate hike expectations are back.' The US interest rate futures market has begun pricing in a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve as early as October, with a complete pricing of a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller has clearly stated that if inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed will still need to raise rates; the European Central Bank has also begun direct discussions about the possibility of a rate hike in June. This means that the narrative of 'rate cuts saving the market' that the market had initially anticipated is now being replaced by 'high rates becoming permanent.' The core issue behind this is that the global bond market is beginning to push back against the logic of 'central banks always providing a safety net' that has prevailed for over a decade. El-Erian has pointed out the biggest risk: in the past, whether during financial crises, pandemics, or wars, the market believed that central banks would ultimately rescue risk assets through rate cuts, quantitative easing, and fiscal stimulus, making 'buying the dip' the most successful trading strategy globally. However, now, high inflation, high debt, and sovereign credit pressures are starting to limit central banks' ability to intervene, and the market is facing a situation where 'policies may want to help, but may not be able to.' This is also the reason behind the recent significant divergence in global assets. On one hand, US tech and AI stocks remain elevated due to liquidity inertia and growth expectations; on the other hand, US Treasury yields, Japanese long bonds, and the European bond market have begun to experience significant volatility. This indicates that funds are reassessing: if central banks can no longer provide unlimited liquidity in the future, then all currently overvalued assets will have to face pressures from 'real interest rates' and 'cash flow discounting.' In the cryptocurrency market, BTC will still be supported in the short term by a recovery in risk appetite due to the easing Middle East situation, but if global interest rate markets continue to reflect rate hike expectations, high-leverage and high-valuation assets will still face liquidity contraction pressures. The biggest variable in the market is no longer just war, but whether the influence of global policy tools on the market is beginning to decline.

Bitunix Analyst: Progress in US-Iran Ceasefire Continues, but Global Markets Now Concerned Beyond Just War

Onshore Renminbi against the US dollar closed at 6.7837 on May 25 at 16:30, an increase of 110 points from the previous trading day.

[Onshore Renminbi Against US Dollar Closes at 6.7837 on May 25]Onshore Renminbi against the US dollar closed at 6.7837 on May 25 at 16:30, an increase of 110 points from the previous trading day.

Onshore Renminbi Against US Dollar Closes at 6.7837 on May 25

On May 25, according to Yonhap News, the union representing Samsung Electronics' non-chip business division has applied to the court for a temporary injunction to stop the ongoing salary agreement vote. Previously, Samsung Electronics reached a preliminary salary agreement with the union and suspended the planned strike. However, the special performance bonus arrangements for the semiconductor division have caused dissatisfaction among employees in the non-chip division. The related voting was originally scheduled to take place from May 22 to 27, with the final results yet to be announced.

[Yonhap News: Samsung Non-Chip Division Union Seeks to Halt Salary Vote]On May 25, according to Yonhap News, the union representing Samsung Electronics' non-chip business division has applied to the court for a temporary injunction to stop the ongoing salary agreement vote. Previously, Samsung Electronics reached a preliminary salary agreement with the union and suspended the planned strike. However, the special performance bonus arrangements for the semiconductor division have caused dissatisfaction among employees in the non-chip division. The related voting was originally scheduled to take place from May 22 to 27, with the final results yet to be announced.

Yonhap News: Samsung Non-Chip Division Union Seeks to Halt Salary Vote

According to monitoring by Beating, Musk announced on X that xAI plans to open source the current Grok 4.2 base model (with 0.5 trillion parameters) by the end of 2026. Although the model's parameter scale is relatively small, Musk emphasized that the open-source version will still hold significant practical value for the developer community. Previously, Musk publicly acknowledged that due to flaws in the quality, comprehensiveness, and ratio of training data, the underlying model running Grok 4.2 struggles with high-difficulty programming challenges. However, for routine natural language processing and basic reasoning tasks, the base model with 500 billion parameters still offers strong performance advantages. Open-sourcing large models is one of xAI's strategies. In March 2024, xAI open-sourced the Grok-1 model with 314 billion parameters, which was the largest open-source model at that time.

[Musk Finalizes Open Source Release of Grok 4.2 by Year-End]According to monitoring by Beating, Musk announced on X that xAI plans to open source the current Grok 4.2 base model (with 0.5 trillion parameters) by the end of 2026. Although the model's parameter scale is relatively small, Musk emphasized that the open-source version will still hold significant practical value for the developer community. Previously, Musk publicly acknowledged that due to flaws in the quality, comprehensiveness, and ratio of training data, the underlying model running Grok 4.2 struggles with high-difficulty programming challenges. However, for routine natural language processing and basic reasoning tasks, the base model with 500 billion parameters still offers strong performance advantages. Open-sourcing large models is one of xAI's strategies. In March 2024, xAI open-sourced the Grok-1 model with 314 billion parameters, which was the largest open-source model at that time.

Musk Finalizes Open Source Release of Grok 4.2 by Year-End

On May 25, according to monitoring by Ai Yi, since the WLFI unlock activation portal opened two weeks ago, 45.9 billion WLFI tokens have been transferred to the unlock contract, representing 73.8% progress, with a total value of $2.81 billion. The WLFI team and related stakeholders have burned 3.2 billion WLFI tokens, valued at $194 million. The current price of WLFI is $0.06137, rebounding 18% from the low point at the beginning of the month.

[WLFI Unlock Contract Transfers 45.9 Billion Tokens Worth $2.81 Billion]On May 25, according to monitoring by Ai Yi, since the WLFI unlock activation portal opened two weeks ago, 45.9 billion WLFI tokens have been transferred to the unlock contract, representing 73.8% progress, with a total value of $2.81 billion. The WLFI team and related stakeholders have burned 3.2 billion WLFI tokens, valued at $194 million. The current price of WLFI is $0.06137, rebounding 18% from the low point at the beginning of the month.

WLFI Unlock Contract Transfers 45.9 Billion Tokens Worth $2.81 Billion

On May 25, Slow Fog reported that the security agency MistEye detected a cross-registry supply chain attack. The attackers published malicious software packages on npm, PyPI, and crates.io, targeting developers in the fields of cryptocurrency, DeFi, Solana, Sui/Move, and AI. This attack involved over 34 malicious software packages and more than 384 related versions. The attackers may steal cryptocurrency wallets, SSH keys, cloud credentials, GitHub/AWS tokens, browser data, environment variables, and developers' confidential information. Some malicious payloads also attempted to achieve persistence through .cursorrules, CLAUDE.md, Git hooks, shell hooks, cron, systemd, and SSH. Developers are advised to immediately remove the affected packages, isolate the compromised systems, retain logs, rotate exposed credentials, rebuild CI environments and developer machines from clean images, and review activity logs for GitHub, cloud services, SSH, and wallets.

[Slow Fog: Supply Chain Attack Affects PyPI/npm/crates.io, Over 34 Malicious Packages Targeting Crypto and AI Developers]On May 25, Slow Fog reported that the security agency MistEye detected a cross-registry supply chain attack. The attackers published malicious software packages on npm, PyPI, and crates.io, targeting developers in the fields of cryptocurrency, DeFi, Solana, Sui/Move, and AI. This attack involved over 34 malicious software packages and more than 384 related versions. The attackers may steal cryptocurrency wallets, SSH keys, cloud credentials, GitHub/AWS tokens, browser data, environment variables, and developers' confidential information. Some malicious payloads also attempted to achieve persistence through .cursorrules, CLAUDE.md, Git hooks, shell hooks, cron, systemd, and SSH. Developers are advised to immediately remove the affected packages, isolate the compromised systems, retain logs, rotate exposed credentials, rebuild CI environments and developer machines from clean images, and review activity logs for GitHub, cloud services, SSH, and wallets.

Slow Fog: Supply Chain Attack Affects PyPI/npm/crates.io, Over 34 Malicious Packages Targeting Crypto and AI Developers

On May 25, Tether announced plans to launch a stablecoin representing the Georgian Lari (GEL₮) with the support of the Georgian government. This initiative marks one of the first joint efforts to place a national currency directly onto the digital asset track under a specially constructed regulatory framework for stablecoins. GEL₮ aims to serve as a digital representation of the Georgian Lari, facilitating lower transaction costs, near-instant settlements, programmable payments, and more efficient value transfer within the digital financial system. The initiative is expected to support fintech development, digital payments, and broader access to programmable financial infrastructure in Georgia and the surrounding region. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated, 'With visionary partners like Tether, Georgia is laying the groundwork for a more interconnected, transparent, and digitally empowered financial world.' Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino noted, 'Stablecoins are no longer a niche financial tool; they are becoming part of the global financial infrastructure layer. Georgia has taken the lead in establishing a serious regulatory framework for digital assets and stablecoins, and this clarity lays the foundation for true innovation and adoption.'

[Tether Partners with Georgian Government to Launch Official Stablecoin GEL₮]On May 25, Tether announced plans to launch a stablecoin representing the Georgian Lari (GEL₮) with the support of the Georgian government. This initiative marks one of the first joint efforts to place a national currency directly onto the digital asset track under a specially constructed regulatory framework for stablecoins. GEL₮ aims to serve as a digital representation of the Georgian Lari, facilitating lower transaction costs, near-instant settlements, programmable payments, and more efficient value transfer within the digital financial system. The initiative is expected to support fintech development, digital payments, and broader access to programmable financial infrastructure in Georgia and the surrounding region. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated, 'With visionary partners like Tether, Georgia is laying the groundwork for a more interconnected, transparent, and digitally empowered financial world.' Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino noted, 'Stablecoins are no longer a niche financial tool; they are becoming part of the global financial infrastructure layer. Georgia has taken the lead in establishing a serious regulatory framework for digital assets and stablecoins, and this clarity lays the foundation for true innovation and adoption.'

Tether Partners with Georgian Government to Launch Official Stablecoin GEL₮

On May 25, Tether announced its collaboration with the Georgian government to launch the official stablecoin GEL₮, which will be pegged to the Georgian Lari and issued under a specially designed regulatory framework for stablecoins. The GEL₮ is intended to serve as a digital representation of the Georgian Lari, aimed at reducing transaction costs, enabling near real-time settlements, supporting programmable payments, and enhancing the efficiency of fund flows in cross-border transfers and the digital financial system. Tether stated that the project is expected to support cross-border trade, fintech development, and digital payments.

[Tether to Collaborate with Georgian Government to Launch Official Stablecoin GEL₮]On May 25, Tether announced its collaboration with the Georgian government to launch the official stablecoin GEL₮, which will be pegged to the Georgian Lari and issued under a specially designed regulatory framework for stablecoins. The GEL₮ is intended to serve as a digital representation of the Georgian Lari, aimed at reducing transaction costs, enabling near real-time settlements, supporting programmable payments, and enhancing the efficiency of fund flows in cross-border transfers and the digital financial system. Tether stated that the project is expected to support cross-border trade, fintech development, and digital payments.

Tether to Collaborate with Georgian Government to Launch Official Stablecoin GEL₮

On May 25, according to a report by the Iranian Students' News Agency, a senior Iranian diplomat stated that neither Iran nor the United States made any commitments regarding nuclear issues or high-enriched uranium in the preliminary draft agreement reached between the two parties. The diplomat also mentioned that if the US can fulfill its commitments in the potential memorandum of understanding, both sides will engage in discussions on nuclear issues and high-enriched uranium reserves during a 60-day negotiation period, in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions and the unfreezing of assets. Additionally, Iran is currently negotiating to end the war and is not discussing nuclear issues.

[Iran: No Commitments on Nuclear Issues in Draft Agreement Between Iran and US]On May 25, according to a report by the Iranian Students' News Agency, a senior Iranian diplomat stated that neither Iran nor the United States made any commitments regarding nuclear issues or high-enriched uranium in the preliminary draft agreement reached between the two parties. The diplomat also mentioned that if the US can fulfill its commitments in the potential memorandum of understanding, both sides will engage in discussions on nuclear issues and high-enriched uranium reserves during a 60-day negotiation period, in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions and the unfreezing of assets. Additionally, Iran is currently negotiating to end the war and is not discussing nuclear issues.

Iran: No Commitments on Nuclear Issues in Draft Agreement Between Iran and US

Huobi Global data showed that BTC fell below 42000 USDT and is now at 41986.3 USDT, with a decrease of 4.15% in 24H.

[BTC fell below 42000 USDT] Huobi Global data showed that BTC fell below 42000 USDT and is now at 41986.3 USDT, with a decrease of 4.15% in 24H.

BTC fell below 42000 USDT

Perspective: Tokens on alt.fun are double-layered leverage

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zest soared to 0.180732 USDT, a new high with a 24-hour increase of 9.68%. It currently trades at 0.180313 USDT on HTX.

zest currently trades at 0.183708 USDT, up 20.27% in 24h, according to HTX market data.

BTC fell below 42000 USDT

Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

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