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On July 29, Critini Research Korean analyst Jukan commented on the stabilization policy announced by South Korean regulators tonight, saying, 'These measures are deeply disappointing. They are merely symbolic, performative gestures with almost no practical value.' Jukan questioned the regulators, asking why these products were allowed to exist in the first place. Even if the government prevents new capital inflows, existing positions will still face liquidation pressure, won't they? Do they really believe that education can solve this problem?

[Critini Research Analyst: South Korea's Stabilization Policy Announced Tonight Disappoints]On July 29, Critini Research Korean analyst Jukan commented on the stabilization policy announced by South Korean regulators tonight, saying, 'These measures are deeply disappointing. They are merely symbolic, performative gestures with almost no practical value.' Jukan questioned the regulators, asking why these products were allowed to exist in the first place. Even if the government prevents new capital inflows, existing positions will still face liquidation pressure, won't they? Do they really believe that education can solve this problem?

Critini Research Analyst: South Korea's Stabilization Policy Announced Tonight Disappoints

On July 29, HSBC analyst Daragh Maher noted in a report that with the market having already priced in some rate hike expectations, the dollar could weaken if the Federal Reserve announces it will hold rates steady. He said that to curb the initial decline of the dollar, at least three Fed members would need to vote for a rate hike. He pointed out that if the Fed does raise rates, the initial gains are likely to far exceed the potential initial decline if rates are held steady. Maher stated: "A faster-than-expected rate hike would force the market to consider whether this is the first in a series of rate increases." In contrast, he believes that holding steady should not have a major impact on expectations for a rate hike in September. (Jin10)

[HSBC: Dollar May Fall if Fed Holds Rates Steady]On July 29, HSBC analyst Daragh Maher noted in a report that with the market having already priced in some rate hike expectations, the dollar could weaken if the Federal Reserve announces it will hold rates steady. He said that to curb the initial decline of the dollar, at least three Fed members would need to vote for a rate hike. He pointed out that if the Fed does raise rates, the initial gains are likely to far exceed the potential initial decline if rates are held steady. Maher stated: "A faster-than-expected rate hike would force the market to consider whether this is the first in a series of rate increases." In contrast, he believes that holding steady should not have a major impact on expectations for a rate hike in September. (Jin10)

HSBC: Dollar May Fall if Fed Holds Rates Steady

On July 29, JPMorgan expects that the U.S. Treasury will avoid making adjustments in its quarterly refunding announcement next week that could hint at future increases in bond issuance, in order to avoid disturbing the bond market ahead of the November midterm elections. JPMorgan estimates a $3.7 trillion funding gap over the next four fiscal years, which suggests that officials should revise the long-term guidance on auction sizes to achieve the Treasury's goal of 'prudent debt management.' Specifically, they should remove the word 'at least' from the phrase 'auction sizes are expected to remain stable for at least the next few quarters.' However, in practice, political factors will be a more important consideration. If the Treasury signals an increase in long-term Treasury supply at this point, it could push up long-term yields, which are already near levels not seen since Trump took office, undermining market stability before the election.

[JPMorgan: U.S. Treasury Expected to Avoid Adjusting Bond Issuance Plan Due to Midterm Elections]On July 29, JPMorgan expects that the U.S. Treasury will avoid making adjustments in its quarterly refunding announcement next week that could hint at future increases in bond issuance, in order to avoid disturbing the bond market ahead of the November midterm elections. JPMorgan estimates a $3.7 trillion funding gap over the next four fiscal years, which suggests that officials should revise the long-term guidance on auction sizes to achieve the Treasury's goal of 'prudent debt management.' Specifically, they should remove the word 'at least' from the phrase 'auction sizes are expected to remain stable for at least the next few quarters.' However, in practice, political factors will be a more important consideration. If the Treasury signals an increase in long-term Treasury supply at this point, it could push up long-term yields, which are already near levels not seen since Trump took office, undermining market stability before the election.

JPMorgan: U.S. Treasury Expected to Avoid Adjusting Bond Issuance Plan Due to Midterm Elections

On July 29, Polymarket announced the establishment of the Polymarket Institute to study the information discovery and predictive capabilities of prediction markets. The institute will launch a one-year research program, initially funding 12 doctoral researchers with $10,000 each; applications will open on August 18. Participants must refrain from trading on Polymarket or similar platforms during their tenure, and must make their research results and code publicly available, while retaining independent publication rights. (Fortune)

[Polymarket Establishes Research Institute to Fund Academic Research on Prediction Markets]On July 29, Polymarket announced the establishment of the Polymarket Institute to study the information discovery and predictive capabilities of prediction markets. The institute will launch a one-year research program, initially funding 12 doctoral researchers with $10,000 each; applications will open on August 18. Participants must refrain from trading on Polymarket or similar platforms during their tenure, and must make their research results and code publicly available, while retaining independent publication rights. (Fortune)

Polymarket Establishes Research Institute to Fund Academic Research on Prediction Markets

On July 29, according to The Information, Stripe is discussing acquiring OpenRouter for $10 billion, a price equivalent to 70 times OpenRouter's annualized revenue.

[Stripe in Talks to Acquire OpenRouter for $10 Billion]On July 29, according to The Information, Stripe is discussing acquiring OpenRouter for $10 billion, a price equivalent to 70 times OpenRouter's annualized revenue.

Stripe in Talks to Acquire OpenRouter for $10 Billion

On July 29, after an emergency meeting, South Korea's Finance Ministry stated that it is committed to taking more measures to stabilize the stock market and will implement measures to restrict leveraged ETF trading. South Korea will maintain a 24-hour stock market monitoring system and establish a legal basis for implementing market stabilization measures in emergencies. At the same time, South Korea will strengthen supervision over leveraged ETF trading, limit retail investors' exposure to leveraged ETFs, immediately introduce additional regulatory measures for single-stock leveraged ETFs, and increase related transaction costs to curb ETF speculation.

[South Korea's Finance Ministry: Immediate Additional Measures for Single-Stock Leveraged ETFs]On July 29, after an emergency meeting, South Korea's Finance Ministry stated that it is committed to taking more measures to stabilize the stock market and will implement measures to restrict leveraged ETF trading. South Korea will maintain a 24-hour stock market monitoring system and establish a legal basis for implementing market stabilization measures in emergencies. At the same time, South Korea will strengthen supervision over leveraged ETF trading, limit retail investors' exposure to leveraged ETFs, immediately introduce additional regulatory measures for single-stock leveraged ETFs, and increase related transaction costs to curb ETF speculation.

South Korea's Finance Ministry: Immediate Additional Measures for Single-Stock Leveraged ETFs

On July 29, Jiang Zhuo'er, founder of B.TOP mining pool, stated that there are still five hours until the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, but the market's pricing on rate hikes remains deeply divided, with 65% expecting no rate hike and 35% expecting a hike. Normally, on the eve of a FOMC meeting, futures market pricing would be highly consistent. Thus, this situation is very rare in recent years, representing an 'outlier' level of divergence. Jiang Zhuo'er's personal forecast is: the Fed will maintain no rate hike, but Warsh will deliver a hawkish tone to keep the market balanced. The price of cryptocurrencies will first surge, liquidating shorts, then drop, liquidating longs. Additionally, Jiang Zhuo'er warned of the 'FOMC curse' effect in the crypto market, noting that Bitcoin has fallen after each of the past eight FOMC meetings.

[Jiang Zhuo'er: Market deeply divided on rate decision, warns of 'FOMC curse' effect]On July 29, Jiang Zhuo'er, founder of B.TOP mining pool, stated that there are still five hours until the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, but the market's pricing on rate hikes remains deeply divided, with 65% expecting no rate hike and 35% expecting a hike. Normally, on the eve of a FOMC meeting, futures market pricing would be highly consistent. Thus, this situation is very rare in recent years, representing an 'outlier' level of divergence. Jiang Zhuo'er's personal forecast is: the Fed will maintain no rate hike, but Warsh will deliver a hawkish tone to keep the market balanced. The price of cryptocurrencies will first surge, liquidating shorts, then drop, liquidating longs. Additionally, Jiang Zhuo'er warned of the 'FOMC curse' effect in the crypto market, noting that Bitcoin has fallen after each of the past eight FOMC meetings.

Jiang Zhuo'er: Market deeply divided on rate decision, warns of 'FOMC curse' effect

On July 29, MoonPay launched the AI payment tool PayBox, which allows users to integrate it with ChatGPT or Claude, enabling the AI assistant to directly prepare payment transactions such as booking flights, restaurants, or online shopping. Users can choose to require passkey approval for each transaction or set a limit for the AI to complete autonomously. PayBox integrates a crypto wallet and payment card, supporting cross-chain transactions based on the x402 agent payment standard, with initial support for Solana and EVM-compatible chains. MoonPay stated that wallet private keys are protected through multi-party computation (MPC) and trusted execution environment (TEE), ensuring no single party can independently obtain the complete private key or sign transactions. Over the next month, it will expand to support more AI platforms and DeFi features such as token swaps.

[MoonPay Launches AI Payment Tool PayBox, Enables Direct Payments via ChatGPT and Claude]On July 29, MoonPay launched the AI payment tool PayBox, which allows users to integrate it with ChatGPT or Claude, enabling the AI assistant to directly prepare payment transactions such as booking flights, restaurants, or online shopping. Users can choose to require passkey approval for each transaction or set a limit for the AI to complete autonomously. PayBox integrates a crypto wallet and payment card, supporting cross-chain transactions based on the x402 agent payment standard, with initial support for Solana and EVM-compatible chains. MoonPay stated that wallet private keys are protected through multi-party computation (MPC) and trusted execution environment (TEE), ensuring no single party can independently obtain the complete private key or sign transactions. Over the next month, it will expand to support more AI platforms and DeFi features such as token swaps.

MoonPay Launches AI Payment Tool PayBox, Enables Direct Payments via ChatGPT and Claude

On July 29, the latest report from crypto wallet protocol Safe showed that it processed nearly 130 million transactions in the second quarter, with a total of over 63 million cumulative accounts created, up 20% year-over-year. About $1 out of every $48 in global stablecoin supply is held in Safe. However, quarterly revenue fell to approximately $1.98 million, down from $2.88 million in the first quarter, which may be related to pressure on cryptocurrency prices. The report showed that consumer applications on World Chain and Polygon contributed the majority of Safe's transaction volume this quarter, with World App accounting for 52% and Polymarket accounting for 35.7%. Additionally, Safe's on-chain security network Safenet, launched in April in beta, had processed 456,000 transaction checks by the end of the quarter, secured by staked SAFE tokens, with approximately 54.8 million tokens staked. (The Block)

[Safe Sets Record with 130M Transactions in Q2, Revenue Drops Over 30% QoQ]On July 29, the latest report from crypto wallet protocol Safe showed that it processed nearly 130 million transactions in the second quarter, with a total of over 63 million cumulative accounts created, up 20% year-over-year. About $1 out of every $48 in global stablecoin supply is held in Safe. However, quarterly revenue fell to approximately $1.98 million, down from $2.88 million in the first quarter, which may be related to pressure on cryptocurrency prices. The report showed that consumer applications on World Chain and Polygon contributed the majority of Safe's transaction volume this quarter, with World App accounting for 52% and Polymarket accounting for 35.7%. Additionally, Safe's on-chain security network Safenet, launched in April in beta, had processed 456,000 transaction checks by the end of the quarter, secured by staked SAFE tokens, with approximately 54.8 million tokens staked. (The Block)

Safe Sets Record with 130M Transactions in Q2, Revenue Drops Over 30% QoQ

On July 22, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio has been scheduled for tomorrow.

[Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio Scheduled for Tomorrow]On July 22, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio has been scheduled for tomorrow.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio Scheduled for Tomorrow

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Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

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