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On June 17, options traders' views on the Federal Reserve's recent rate path have become increasingly divergent, with various bets ranging from expectations of rate cuts in the coming months to differing degrees of rate hikes. Swap market pricing indicates that it is almost certain the Fed will maintain rates at its meeting on Wednesday, with all eyes turning to Chair Waller's first press conference for clues about future policy. Although the U.S. and Iran are set to formally sign a temporary peace agreement, leading to a drop in oil prices to a three-month low and providing some relief to inflationary pressures, future policy remains uncertain.

[Divergence Among U.S. Treasury Options Traders on Fed Rate Path, Focus on Waller's Press Conference Tone]On June 17, options traders' views on the Federal Reserve's recent rate path have become increasingly divergent, with various bets ranging from expectations of rate cuts in the coming months to differing degrees of rate hikes. Swap market pricing indicates that it is almost certain the Fed will maintain rates at its meeting on Wednesday, with all eyes turning to Chair Waller's first press conference for clues about future policy. Although the U.S. and Iran are set to formally sign a temporary peace agreement, leading to a drop in oil prices to a three-month low and providing some relief to inflationary pressures, future policy remains uncertain.

Divergence Among U.S. Treasury Options Traders on Fed Rate Path, Focus on Waller's Press Conference Tone

On June 17, CNBC reported that the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials' expectations for interest rate trends. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect that new Fed Chair Waller may not participate, either because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot. Waller has previously expressed opposition to the dot plot and other forward guidance methods, arguing that these approaches limit the Fed's decision-making capabilities. If Waller refuses to provide dot plot expectations, it would contradict nearly 14 years of practice since the financial crisis and could alienate him from other Fed officials who support this communication method. However, for Waller, who has committed to fundamentally reforming the institution's operations, this may be an effective first step. "In my view, he likely does not want to submit interest rate forecasts," said former Fed monetary policy chief and current Yale professor Bill English. "There may be others on the committee who also dislike the dot plot, and they might be willing to do the same." (The image shows the dot plot released by the Fed in March this year.)

[Waller May Refuse to Provide Fed Dot Plot Expectations, Breaking 14-Year Tradition]On June 17, CNBC reported that the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials' expectations for interest rate trends. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect that new Fed Chair Waller may not participate, either because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot. Waller has previously expressed opposition to the dot plot and other forward guidance methods, arguing that these approaches limit the Fed's decision-making capabilities. If Waller refuses to provide dot plot expectations, it would contradict nearly 14 years of practice since the financial crisis and could alienate him from other Fed officials who support this communication method. However, for Waller, who has committed to fundamentally reforming the institution's operations, this may be an effective first step. "In my view, he likely does not want to submit interest rate forecasts," said former Fed monetary policy chief and current Yale professor Bill English. "There may be others on the committee who also dislike the dot plot, and they might be willing to do the same." (The image shows the dot plot released by the Fed in March this year.)

Waller May Refuse to Provide Fed Dot Plot Expectations, Breaking 14-Year Tradition

On June 17, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 0.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged until July is 92%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point increase at 7.9%, and a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 0%.

[99.5% Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged This Week]On June 17, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 0.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged until July is 92%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point increase at 7.9%, and a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 0%.

99.5% Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged This Week

The once-dominant Memecoin issuance platform on Solana, Pump.fun, has seen a continuous deterioration in activity, with a significant decline in token graduation rates, platform revenue, and Solana network fees in recent months. Data shows that the seven-day average token graduation rate for Pump.fun dropped to 0.26% last week, marking an 80% decrease over the past three months. Meanwhile, the platform's average revenue from June to date is approximately $800,000, significantly lower than the average daily revenue of about $4.8 million six months ago. In June, Pump.fun's revenue fell by 25% month-over-month, and the token graduation rate decreased by 53% in the same period. This disparity indicates that the platform may still be maintaining some dollar revenue through auxiliary income from PumpSwap AMM trading fees and sponsorship for token listings, but its core function—pushing newly issued tokens to higher market cap stages—has significantly weakened. The decline of Pump.fun is also reflected in the price of the PUMP token, which has dropped about 40% over the past six months. At the same time, trader interest is shifting from Memecoin issuance on the Solana chain to other trading scenarios such as perpetual contracts, further driving down Solana network fees.

[Pump.fun Activity Declines by 80% Over Three Months]The once-dominant Memecoin issuance platform on Solana, Pump.fun, has seen a continuous deterioration in activity, with a significant decline in token graduation rates, platform revenue, and Solana network fees in recent months. Data shows that the seven-day average token graduation rate for Pump.fun dropped to 0.26% last week, marking an 80% decrease over the past three months. Meanwhile, the platform's average revenue from June to date is approximately $800,000, significantly lower than the average daily revenue of about $4.8 million six months ago. In June, Pump.fun's revenue fell by 25% month-over-month, and the token graduation rate decreased by 53% in the same period. This disparity indicates that the platform may still be maintaining some dollar revenue through auxiliary income from PumpSwap AMM trading fees and sponsorship for token listings, but its core function—pushing newly issued tokens to higher market cap stages—has significantly weakened. The decline of Pump.fun is also reflected in the price of the PUMP token, which has dropped about 40% over the past six months. At the same time, trader interest is shifting from Memecoin issuance on the Solana chain to other trading scenarios such as perpetual contracts, further driving down Solana network fees.

Pump.fun Activity Declines by 80% Over Three Months

On June 17, foreign media reported on the 16th that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran includes a $300 billion private fund aimed at stimulating investment in Iran, with over half of the amount already secured in funding commitments. According to sources, the fund is designed to 'provide economic incentives for both parties to facilitate the final agreement' and is a 'private investment tool' that does not include any government funds or grants. Companies based in the United States, Gulf countries, as well as those from Asia, South America, and Africa have already committed to invest, covering sectors such as energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transportation. (Xinhua News Agency)

[Foreign Media: Over Half of $300 Billion Fund in US-Iran Agreement Secured Funding Commitments]On June 17, foreign media reported on the 16th that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran includes a $300 billion private fund aimed at stimulating investment in Iran, with over half of the amount already secured in funding commitments. According to sources, the fund is designed to 'provide economic incentives for both parties to facilitate the final agreement' and is a 'private investment tool' that does not include any government funds or grants. Companies based in the United States, Gulf countries, as well as those from Asia, South America, and Africa have already committed to invest, covering sectors such as energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transportation. (Xinhua News Agency)

Foreign Media: Over Half of $300 Billion Fund in US-Iran Agreement Secured Funding Commitments

On June 17, Iranian sources reported on the 16th that Iran will not allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) personnel to enter its nuclear facilities for inspections during negotiations with the United States.

[Iran Temporarily Denies IAEA Access to Nuclear Facilities]On June 17, Iranian sources reported on the 16th that Iran will not allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) personnel to enter its nuclear facilities for inspections during negotiations with the United States.

Iran Temporarily Denies IAEA Access to Nuclear Facilities

On June 17, OpenAI developers announced that more features of Codex are being gradually rolled out to users across Europe this week. We are providing computer operation capabilities, the Codex Chrome extension, personalized memory features, and Chronicle to Codex users in the European Economic Area, the UK, and Switzerland.

[OpenAI Developer: More Codex Features Rolling Out Across Europe This Week]On June 17, OpenAI developers announced that more features of Codex are being gradually rolled out to users across Europe this week. We are providing computer operation capabilities, the Codex Chrome extension, personalized memory features, and Chronicle to Codex users in the European Economic Area, the UK, and Switzerland.

OpenAI Developer: More Codex Features Rolling Out Across Europe This Week

On June 17, U.S. intelligence assessments indicated that Iran, after demonstrating relevant capabilities during conflicts, still has the potential to close the Strait of Hormuz again. Although a deal to reopen the Strait is anticipated, Tehran retains capabilities in missiles, drones, speedboats, and mine-laying, which could disrupt global energy transportation. Intelligence officials stated that Iran has gained leverage over this critical trade route and may use regional energy infrastructure as a tool for pressure.

[U.S. Intelligence: Iran Still Capable of Closing the Strait of Hormuz Again]On June 17, U.S. intelligence assessments indicated that Iran, after demonstrating relevant capabilities during conflicts, still has the potential to close the Strait of Hormuz again. Although a deal to reopen the Strait is anticipated, Tehran retains capabilities in missiles, drones, speedboats, and mine-laying, which could disrupt global energy transportation. Intelligence officials stated that Iran has gained leverage over this critical trade route and may use regional energy infrastructure as a tool for pressure.

U.S. Intelligence: Iran Still Capable of Closing the Strait of Hormuz Again

The US Dollar Index fell 0.09% on the 16th, closing at 99.540 in the foreign exchange market.

[US Dollar Index Falls 0.09% on 16th]The US Dollar Index fell 0.09% on the 16th, closing at 99.540 in the foreign exchange market.

US Dollar Index Falls 0.09% on 16th

火币HTX报道，一项旨在结束美伊敌对行动的拟议协议，在周一让股票和债券交易员松了一口气，但同时也给预测市场带来了新难题。作为全球最大事件预测交易平台之一，Polymarket上关于美国和伊朗是否会签署和平协议以及何时签署这个问题，交易额已超过3.45亿美元。两国周末宣布达成协议，一些交易者认为他们已经可以拿到奖金。但由于尚不清楚该声明是否满足Polymarket合约中规定的条件，这些押注目前仍处于悬而未决的状态。 周日晚间一项关于将该合约判定为“是”的提议 —— 即确实已达成和平协议 —— 很快遭到了UMA 持有者的质疑。 
UMA是Polymarket用于处理市场争议的加密货币。一些对结果提出异议的人表示，合约条款并未得到满足，一方面是因为双方尚未签署任何文件，另一方面是因为双方达成的协议是否代表着冲突“永久”结束尚且存疑。这是Polymarket遭遇的最新一次，也是规模最大的争议之一，凸显出预测市场在处理与复杂现实事件相关的“是或否”判定时一直面临的困难。（新浪财经）

【美伊和平协议搅动预测市场 Polymarket用户围绕逾3亿美元押注争执不下】火币HTX报道，一项旨在结束美伊敌对行动的拟议协议，在周一让股票和债券交易员松了一口气，但同时也给预测市场带来了新难题。作为全球最大事件预测交易平台之一，Polymarket上关于美国和伊朗是否会签署和平协议以及何时签署这个问题，交易额已超过3.45亿美元。两国周末宣布达成协议，一些交易者认为他们已经可以拿到奖金。但由于尚不清楚该声明是否满足Polymarket合约中规定的条件，这些押注目前仍处于悬而未决的状态。 周日晚间一项关于将该合约判定为“是”的提议 —— 即确实已达成和平协议 —— 很快遭到了UMA 持有者的质疑。 
UMA是Polymarket用于处理市场争议的加密货币。一些对结果提出异议的人表示，合约条款并未得到满足，一方面是因为双方尚未签署任何文件，另一方面是因为双方达成的协议是否代表着冲突“永久”结束尚且存疑。这是Polymarket遭遇的最新一次，也是规模最大的争议之一，凸显出预测市场在处理与复杂现实事件相关的“是或否”判定时一直面临的困难。（新浪财经）

美伊和平协议搅动预测市场 Polymarket用户围绕逾3亿美元押注争执不下

Just Now, Claude Mythos 5 Released, Handles 50 Million Lines of Code in One Day

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Musk's Wealth Increases by Nearly $140 Billion in One Day

Vance: US-Iran Memorandum is Approximately One and a Half Pages Long

美伊和平协议搅动预测市场 Polymarket用户围绕逾3亿美元押注争执不下

Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

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