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On April 9, U.S. federal regulators are requesting a court to prevent Arizona from applying its gambling laws to the prediction market operator Kalshi, arguing that its sports and event contracts qualify as financial derivatives, specifically 'swaps.' The CFTC and the U.S. Department of Justice contend that since the returns on these contracts are based on future events with economic impact, they should be governed by the Commodity Exchange Act and federal regulation, rather than state jurisdiction. The court ruling on this dispute could determine whether prediction markets operate under a unified federal framework nationwide or continue to be affected by fragmented state gambling regulatory systems.

[CFTC Asserts Sports Betting is a Financial Business, Seeks to Block Arizona Enforcement Actions]On April 9, U.S. federal regulators are requesting a court to prevent Arizona from applying its gambling laws to the prediction market operator Kalshi, arguing that its sports and event contracts qualify as financial derivatives, specifically 'swaps.' The CFTC and the U.S. Department of Justice contend that since the returns on these contracts are based on future events with economic impact, they should be governed by the Commodity Exchange Act and federal regulation, rather than state jurisdiction. The court ruling on this dispute could determine whether prediction markets operate under a unified federal framework nationwide or continue to be affected by fragmented state gambling regulatory systems.

CFTC Asserts Sports Betting is a Financial Business, Seeks to Block Arizona Enforcement Actions

On April 9, as commodity prices rebound and energy costs rise, inflationary pressures in the US are resurfacing. The market widely anticipates that the upcoming February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will show that price increases remain above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, which could compel the Fed to maintain its high interest rate policy at the upcoming meeting. According to consensus estimates from FactSet, economists expect the February PCE price index to grow by 0.4% month-on-month, a significant rebound from January's 0.3% increase; year-on-year, the February PCE price index is expected to rise by 2.8%, unchanged from the previous value. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE—which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation—is expected to increase by 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.4%) and by 3.0% year-on-year (previous value 3.1%), indicating strong inflationary stickiness. In light of the still pressing inflation data, economists almost unanimously believe that the Fed will choose to 'trade time for space.' Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that over 97.4% of traders expect the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% at the meeting on April 29, marking the third consecutive time the Fed will hit the 'pause' button. Market sentiment is undergoing a significant shift. A month ago, about 40% of investors were betting that the Fed would significantly cut rates before September 2026, but now nearly 90% of participants have shifted to a wait-and-see approach, believing that rates will remain at current high levels until the end of the third quarter this year. If the PCE report released this Thursday confirms the persistence of inflation, expectations for 'later and fewer' rate cuts will be firmly established.

[US February PCE Data Preview: Core Inflation Remains High, Fed May Stay on Hold]On April 9, as commodity prices rebound and energy costs rise, inflationary pressures in the US are resurfacing. The market widely anticipates that the upcoming February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will show that price increases remain above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, which could compel the Fed to maintain its high interest rate policy at the upcoming meeting. According to consensus estimates from FactSet, economists expect the February PCE price index to grow by 0.4% month-on-month, a significant rebound from January's 0.3% increase; year-on-year, the February PCE price index is expected to rise by 2.8%, unchanged from the previous value. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE—which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation—is expected to increase by 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.4%) and by 3.0% year-on-year (previous value 3.1%), indicating strong inflationary stickiness. In light of the still pressing inflation data, economists almost unanimously believe that the Fed will choose to 'trade time for space.' Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that over 97.4% of traders expect the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% at the meeting on April 29, marking the third consecutive time the Fed will hit the 'pause' button. Market sentiment is undergoing a significant shift. A month ago, about 40% of investors were betting that the Fed would significantly cut rates before September 2026, but now nearly 90% of participants have shifted to a wait-and-see approach, believing that rates will remain at current high levels until the end of the third quarter this year. If the PCE report released this Thursday confirms the persistence of inflation, expectations for 'later and fewer' rate cuts will be firmly established.

US February PCE Data Preview: Core Inflation Remains High, Fed May Stay on Hold

On April 9, following a temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for Q2 2026 oil prices: Brent crude was lowered from $99 to $90 per barrel, and WTI crude from $91 to $87 per barrel. The bank stated that the ceasefire has led to a reduction in risk premiums, combined with a gradual recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as the main reasons for the downgrade. As a result, Brent crude fell by about 11% on Monday. However, Goldman Sachs maintained its oil price forecast for the second half of the year and emphasized that uncertainty on the supply side remains high: if disruptions in Middle Eastern supply persist and production losses escalate, Brent crude could rise to $115 per barrel in extreme scenarios. Additionally, Goldman Sachs simultaneously lowered its forecast for European TTF natural gas prices to €50 per megawatt-hour but warned that if LNG transport is hindered, gas prices could still rebound to above €75. Overall, while the ceasefire temporarily alleviates market tensions, the energy market remains significantly influenced by geopolitical factors in the medium to long term, with notable volatility risks.

[Ceasefire Eases Supply Concerns, Goldman Sachs Lowers Q2 Oil Price Forecast but Warns of Extreme Risks]On April 9, following a temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for Q2 2026 oil prices: Brent crude was lowered from $99 to $90 per barrel, and WTI crude from $91 to $87 per barrel. The bank stated that the ceasefire has led to a reduction in risk premiums, combined with a gradual recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as the main reasons for the downgrade. As a result, Brent crude fell by about 11% on Monday. However, Goldman Sachs maintained its oil price forecast for the second half of the year and emphasized that uncertainty on the supply side remains high: if disruptions in Middle Eastern supply persist and production losses escalate, Brent crude could rise to $115 per barrel in extreme scenarios. Additionally, Goldman Sachs simultaneously lowered its forecast for European TTF natural gas prices to €50 per megawatt-hour but warned that if LNG transport is hindered, gas prices could still rebound to above €75. Overall, while the ceasefire temporarily alleviates market tensions, the energy market remains significantly influenced by geopolitical factors in the medium to long term, with notable volatility risks.

Ceasefire Eases Supply Concerns, Goldman Sachs Lowers Q2 Oil Price Forecast but Warns of Extreme Risks

On April 9, the Iranian Student News Agency reported that a spokesperson for the Iranian military stated that Iran has "shot down at least one of the advanced enemy fighter jets." The report did not specify when or where the aircraft was downed, nor did it clarify whether the "enemy" refers to Israel or the United States. (Xinhua International)

[Iranian Military Claims to Have Shot Down at Least One Advanced Enemy Fighter Jet]On April 9, the Iranian Student News Agency reported that a spokesperson for the Iranian military stated that Iran has "shot down at least one of the advanced enemy fighter jets." The report did not specify when or where the aircraft was downed, nor did it clarify whether the "enemy" refers to Israel or the United States. (Xinhua International)

Iranian Military Claims to Have Shot Down at Least One Advanced Enemy Fighter Jet

On April 9, the Financial Times reported that due to Asian customers seeking alternatives to the disrupted Middle Eastern oil supply caused by the Iran conflict, US crude oil exports are expected to reach a record high in April. Oil research firm Kpler estimates that US exports this month will surge nearly one-third from March's daily average of 3.9 million barrels to 5.2 million barrels per day. Demand from Asian customers is projected to grow by 82%, reaching 2.5 million barrels per day. Data shows that currently, 68 empty tankers are en route to the US, compared to 24 tankers the week before the war broke out on February 28. The average last year was 27 tankers. The surge in exports highlights the increasing importance of the US as a global 'swing supplier,' but competition from Asia may also drive up domestic prices in the US, raising concerns about a new wave of inflation triggered by the Iran war initiated by Trump. The Trump administration currently has no plans to ban oil exports, as analysts believe that once exports are banned, US oil would be unsellable and would accumulate domestically; refineries, fearing unsold products, would also reduce production. However, some warn that if the chaos in the Middle East caused by the war continues to drive up fuel costs as the November midterm elections approach, the White House may reconsider its position.

[US Fills Middle East Oil Gap as Asian Tankers Rush to America]On April 9, the Financial Times reported that due to Asian customers seeking alternatives to the disrupted Middle Eastern oil supply caused by the Iran conflict, US crude oil exports are expected to reach a record high in April. Oil research firm Kpler estimates that US exports this month will surge nearly one-third from March's daily average of 3.9 million barrels to 5.2 million barrels per day. Demand from Asian customers is projected to grow by 82%, reaching 2.5 million barrels per day. Data shows that currently, 68 empty tankers are en route to the US, compared to 24 tankers the week before the war broke out on February 28. The average last year was 27 tankers. The surge in exports highlights the increasing importance of the US as a global 'swing supplier,' but competition from Asia may also drive up domestic prices in the US, raising concerns about a new wave of inflation triggered by the Iran war initiated by Trump. The Trump administration currently has no plans to ban oil exports, as analysts believe that once exports are banned, US oil would be unsellable and would accumulate domestically; refineries, fearing unsold products, would also reduce production. However, some warn that if the chaos in the Middle East caused by the war continues to drive up fuel costs as the November midterm elections approach, the White House may reconsider its position.

US Fills Middle East Oil Gap as Asian Tankers Rush to America

On April 9, analysts from First Citizens Bank stated in a report that the U.S. CPI data to be released on Friday is expected to first substantially reflect the transmission of the Iranian energy shock, with overall inflation accelerating due to soaring energy costs. The bank's head of market and economic research noted, 'Since core inflation is affected more mildly, although still significantly above target, the Federal Reserve will currently 'ignore' the surge in energy-driven inflation.' He indicated that this will reinforce the Fed's long-standing position of inaction and closely link any potential interest rate cuts to the normalization of energy prices. (Jinshi)

[Analyst: March CPI Data May First Substantially Reflect Impact of Iranian Energy Shock]On April 9, analysts from First Citizens Bank stated in a report that the U.S. CPI data to be released on Friday is expected to first substantially reflect the transmission of the Iranian energy shock, with overall inflation accelerating due to soaring energy costs. The bank's head of market and economic research noted, 'Since core inflation is affected more mildly, although still significantly above target, the Federal Reserve will currently 'ignore' the surge in energy-driven inflation.' He indicated that this will reinforce the Fed's long-standing position of inaction and closely link any potential interest rate cuts to the normalization of energy prices. (Jinshi)

Analyst: March CPI Data May First Substantially Reflect Impact of Iranian Energy Shock

On April 9, Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan, Mohammad Ali Mousavi, stated on social media that despite repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement by Israel, the Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on the evening of April 9 at the invitation of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to engage in serious dialogue regarding the 10 ceasefire terms proposed by Iran. (Xinhua International)

[Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan: Iranian Delegation to Arrive in Islamabad on April 9]On April 9, Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan, Mohammad Ali Mousavi, stated on social media that despite repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement by Israel, the Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on the evening of April 9 at the invitation of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to engage in serious dialogue regarding the 10 ceasefire terms proposed by Iran. (Xinhua International)

Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan: Iranian Delegation to Arrive in Islamabad on April 9

On April 9, Base announced the selected projects for the Base Batches 003 accelerator, which includes 12 initiatives. These projects comprise AI agent infrastructure Blockrun.ai, prediction market Stealth, AI agent payment infrastructure 4Mica, privacy-focused Perp DEX OPAL, gamified social prediction platform Onsight, collateral-free lending protocol Credifi, collateralized stablecoin lending platform Tomorrow, routing layer Agently for AI coordination and transaction execution, on-chain foreign exchange hedging platform Nivo, opinion market JPEG App, credit services for AI agents and institutions Floe Labs, and digital bank Liminal. The official program will provide exclusive guidance, resource support, and funding opportunities for the selected projects, culminating in a live Demo Day in San Francisco on May 19.

[Base Announces Selected Projects for Batches 003 Accelerator, Covering 12 Initiatives]On April 9, Base announced the selected projects for the Base Batches 003 accelerator, which includes 12 initiatives. These projects comprise AI agent infrastructure Blockrun.ai, prediction market Stealth, AI agent payment infrastructure 4Mica, privacy-focused Perp DEX OPAL, gamified social prediction platform Onsight, collateral-free lending protocol Credifi, collateralized stablecoin lending platform Tomorrow, routing layer Agently for AI coordination and transaction execution, on-chain foreign exchange hedging platform Nivo, opinion market JPEG App, credit services for AI agents and institutions Floe Labs, and digital bank Liminal. The official program will provide exclusive guidance, resource support, and funding opportunities for the selected projects, culminating in a live Demo Day in San Francisco on May 19.

Base Announces Selected Projects for Batches 003 Accelerator, Covering 12 Initiatives

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 14. Extreme Fear.
Current Price: $70975.41.

[Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 14]Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 14. Extreme Fear.
Current Price: $70975.41.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 14

according to HyperInsight monitoring, a whale address starting with 0x5D2 has added 40 times leverage to its 164.5 million US dollars (138.9 BTC) short position on HyperLiquid, with a current unrealized loss of 447,000 US dollars. The specific position information is as follows:

[A whale address that opened a 40x BTC short position increased its position to short BTC, with a position value of over $70 million]according to HyperInsight monitoring, a whale address starting with 0x5D2 has added 40 times leverage to its 164.5 million US dollars (138.9 BTC) short position on HyperLiquid, with a current unrealized loss of 447,000 US dollars. The specific position information is as follows:

A whale address that opened a 40x BTC short position increased its position to short BTC, with a position value of over $70 million

Article

U.S. Vice President Vance: President Trump Will Continue to Pursue a Peaceful Resolution to the War

U.S. Vice President Vance: Iran Has Agreed to Open the Strait of Hormuz

Trump: US Can Easily Resume Military Action Against Iran if Negotiations Fail

US Vice President: Trump Has Lost Patience on Iran, Iran Agrees to Open Strait of Hormuz

Trump Announces Son-in-Law Kushner and Envoy Greenblatt to Negotiate in Iran

EF: Plans to Sell 5,000 ETH Today for R&D Funding, Grants, and Donations

A whale address that opened a 40x BTC short position increased its position to short BTC, with a position value of over $70 million

Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

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