If Trump Tanks the Economy, Crypto Might Be the Biggest Winner

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” May Blow Up the Deficit — and Boost Bitcoin

President Donald Trump’s ambitious budget proposal—labeled the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—is under fire for potentially adding a staggering $2.4 trillion to the U.S. national deficit over the next ten years.

Critics argue that the bill’s tax breaks come without any real spending restraint, placing the country on an unsustainable fiscal path. With inflation fears mounting and the dollar’s value at risk, many see Bitcoin as a potential winner in this scenario.

Mounting Deficit, Minimal Offsets

The core issue lies in the numbers. While the bill promises tax relief—particularly for tips, overtime pay, and senior citizens—it lacks adequate measures to balance out the lost revenue. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the plan would cut spending by $1.3 trillion but slash government income by a much larger $3.7 trillion.

The result? A projected $2.4 trillion deficit increase over a decade.

Supporters argue that economic expansion will make up for the loss. But past experience, including Trump’s own 2017 tax cuts, suggests otherwise. That plan was supposed to pay for itself—yet it added nearly $1.9 trillion to the national debt even after factoring in growth.

Unrealistic Growth Targets

Some defenders of the bill claim that economic growth can “outgrow” the debt. But for that to happen, the U.S. would need to sustain annual GDP growth of over 20% for the next ten years—a completely unrealistic figure.

In reality, the economy shrank by 0.3% in Q1 2025, and the Fed is projecting just 3.8% growth for Q2. These figures are a far cry from what’s needed to bridge the budget gap.

Economist Kenneth Rogoff has warned that U.S. deficits could stay above 7% of GDP throughout Trump’s term—even without accounting for any major future shocks such as pandemics or geopolitical crises.

Bitcoin Stands to Gain

While the outlook may be bleak for traditional finance, Bitcoin could benefit from the chaos.

Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin cannot be inflated at will or manipulated by central banks. Its fixed supply and decentralized nature make it appealing as a hedge against monetary instability—similar to gold in previous decades.

As U.S. Treasurys become less attractive and confidence in the dollar slips, Bitcoin is likely to stand out as a digital alternative for investors looking to preserve wealth. Already, bond yields are rising, and institutional interest in crypto is growing as a response to weakening trust