Solana’s $14mln whale move vs retail exit – Which side controls $130?

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-11Last updated on 2025-12-11

Abstract

Solana's price dropped to $131, breaching the $130 support level after a failed breakout attempt at $144. Despite the decline, a significant whale withdrew over 101,000 SOL ($13.89M) from Kraken, increasing its holdings to 628,564 SOL, signaling strong confidence. Institutions also showed sustained demand, with Solana ETFs recording net inflows for five consecutive days, bringing total assets near $1 billion. In contrast, retail traders continued selling, as evidenced by negative spot market metrics and higher sell volume. Momentum indicators remained bearish, with the SMI Ergodic Indicator showing a bearish crossover. If selling continues, SOL could fall further toward $123. Regaining bullish momentum would require closing above $146.

Solana attempted an upside move two days ago but was rejected at $144, triggering a retrace and a breach of $130 support.

As of press time, Solana [SOL] traded at $131, down 5.51% on the day. The dip to $129 offered an accumulation window that whales and institutions quickly used.

Solana whale steps in during the pullback

According to Onchain Lens, a long-term Solana whale withdrew 101,365 SOL, worth $13.89 million, from Kraken.

After the latest transactions, the whale’s total Solana holdings jumped to 628,564 SOL, worth approximately $84.13 million.

Out of these holdings, 519,217 SOL is in the private wallet, and 109,348 SOL is staked for yield.

Such a move by the whale to expand positions during a market downturn signals strong confidence in the market. This suggests that the whale anticipates a market recovery, a clear bullish signal.

Institutions kept buying Solana ETFs

In addition to Solana whale accumulation, institutions have been on a buying spree this December. SoSoValue data showed Solana Spot ETFs posted Net Inflows for five straight days.

Since these ETFs went live in late October, they have recorded Net Outflows only three times, reflecting strong demand.

As a result, NET Total Assets climbed to $949.1 million, placing the group near the $1 billion milestone. Sustained inflows suggested institutions remained committed even as price action weakened.

Retail kept selling into weakness

Surprisingly, while Solana whales and institutions showed sustained demand, retail traders continued to close positions.

In fact, Spot Taker CVD turned positive for the first time in nearly two weeks. When this metric is red, it indicates Seller Dominance, meaning more selling orders than buying in the spot market.

Coinalyze data backed the trend. Solana printed 1.31 million Sell Volume against 1.15 million Buy Volume on the 11th of December, leaving a Buy Sell Delta of –158.77k.

Heavy retail selling added downward pressure when whales and institutions were absorbing supply.

Momentum indicators stayed bearish

AMBCrypto’s analysis showed that accumulation from large holders had not offset growing retail sell pressure.

The SMI Ergodic Indicator formed a bearish crossover, sliding to –0.103, which aligned with weakening momentum.

At the same time, the EMA & MA crossover tightened bearish conditions. The MA fell to $135, while the EMA ticked higher to $136, showing ongoing short-term selling pressure.

Together, these signals pointed to sustained weakness. If selling persisted, SOL might revisit levels below $130, with $123 serving as the next notable support.

For buyers to reclaim control, SOL needed a flip of the EMA at $136 and a close above $146, a level tied to its last failed breakout attempt.


Final Thoughts

  • Whales and institutions absorbed supply at lower levels, yet Solana’s momentum indicators still leaned bearish.
  • Traders might watch the $130 zone closely as sentiment decides its next direction.

Related Reads

x402 V2 Launch: When AI Agents Get "Credit Cards," Which Projects Will Be Revalued?

x402 V2 Launch: AI Agents Gain "Credit Cards" – Which Projects Will Be Revalued? Coinbase’s x402 protocol has released its V2 upgrade, shifting from a single-chain payment tool for AI agents to a multi-chain, credit-enabled infrastructure. While V1 allowed AI to make on-chain payments via API calls, it was inefficient and costly due to per-transaction gas fees. V2 introduces three major enhancements: 1. **Delayed Payments**: AI agents can now use services first and pay later, enabling session-based or subscription billing. This effectively gives AI "credit," reducing friction and enabling high-frequency transactions. 2. **Multi-Chain Support**: The protocol is no longer limited to Base chain, allowing AI to transact across Ethereum, Solana, and other networks. 3. **Hybrid Payment Rails**: Supports both crypto (e.g., USDC) and fiat payments, bridging Web3 and traditional finance. This upgrade positions x402 as a foundational layer for the "machine economy," potentially revaluing projects in: - **AI Credit & Identity**: Protocols like Spectral (credit scoring), Bond Credit (agent lending), and CARV (decentralized identity) may see demand as AI requires trust and verification for deferred payments. - **Compute & Verification**: DePIN projects (e.g., Akash Network for decentralized compute) and ZKML protocols (e.g., Giza for verifiable AI inference) could benefit from seamless, high-frequency payment channels. - **Agent Execution Platforms**: Projects like Virtuals Protocol (AI agent issuance) and Brahma (on-chain execution) may leverage x402 for cross-chain agent operations and automated DeFi strategies. The update signals a shift from investing in "smarter" AI models to financing AI economies—where credit, identity, and execution layers become critical. Early-stage infrastructure projects in these areas could capture value as AI agents evolve into independent economic entities.

深潮1m ago

x402 V2 Launch: When AI Agents Get "Credit Cards," Which Projects Will Be Revalued?

深潮1m ago

Grasp Four Keywords to Enter the Main Theme of Crypto in 2025 Early

The article "4 Major Keywords: The Four Seasons of Crypto in 2025" reviews the key developments in the cryptocurrency industry throughout 2025, a year marked by significant regulatory shifts, market volatility, and growing mainstream adoption. The year began with the "Trump Effect," as the new U.S. President took office, driving Bitcoin toward $100,000 and sparking a memecoin frenzy with TRUMP token, which reached an $80 billion market cap. Regulatory progress included the appointment of a crypto-friendly SEC chair and the proposal of a national Bitcoin reserve using seized assets. Summer saw market turbulence due to Trump's global tariff policies, causing sharp declines in both crypto and stock markets. Ethereum rebounded strongly, fueled by the rise of DAT treasury companies—public firms holding ETH and other cryptocurrencies—though many later faced significant losses. Stablecoins and PayFi gained prominence, especially after Circle’s successful public listing. Autumn brought breakthroughs in stock tokenization, with platforms like xStocks enabling on-chain trading of tokenized equities. Traditional players like Nasdaq also entered the space. Meanwhile, on-chain Perp DEXs like Aster and stablecoin projects like Plasma and WLFI attracted attention, though their tokens later declined sharply. Winter was defined by the "10·11 Great Crash," triggered by Trump’s tariff threats, resulting in over $300–400 billion in liquidations. Despite the crash, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi thrived, both reaching valuations exceeding $10 billion. The year, crypto continued its path toward mainstream integration, heavily influenced by U.S. policy and traditional finance. The industry’s evolution emphasized both opportunities and risks, requiring adaptability from participants navigating this dynamic landscape.

比推15m ago

Grasp Four Keywords to Enter the Main Theme of Crypto in 2025 Early

比推15m ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片