BTCBitcoin Price

Despite recent price fluctuations in Bitcoin, blockchain data from CryptoQuant suggests the market has not yet reached a classic capitulation phase. According to analyst Julio Moreno, there is no clear sell signal, and Bitcoin has not entered a full-scale capitulation, indicating this is either a minor correction or could lead to further declines. Moreno notes that Bitcoin holders have only recently begun realizing annual losses, currently around 136,000 BTC. Historical cycles, however, saw realized losses bottom at between 1.3 million and 3.7 million BTC. This cycle could become known for the mildest loss phase in Bitcoin's history, or losses could still increase significantly from current levels. Two scenarios are outlined: the current cycle could be the one with the fewest stop-loss sales in Bitcoin's history, or the market could face further selling pressure as it has not yet found its true bottom. Moreno concludes that sell-offs on a scale characteristic of capitulation have not yet been observed, and it is too early to consider current price levels as the definitive cycle bottom.

Canadian Bitcoin hardware wallet manufacturer Coinkite has issued a warning to users of its Coldcard Mk3 devices. The company advises moving funds from wallets whose seed phrases were generated on the Mk3 with firmware versions 4.0.1 through 5.0.3, released between March 2021 and the final Mk3 update. The newer Mk4, Q, and Mk5 models are not affected. Coinkite recommends users generate a new seed on an unaffected device and transfer funds with caution. This warning coincides with security experts investigating a coordinated sweep of 594.48 BTC (worth approximately $38.3 million) from numerous single-signature wallets. While a Reddit user reported a drained wallet linked to a Coldcard Mk3, no definitive public evidence yet connects the device flaw to these specific thefts. Preliminary analysis by experts suggests the root cause may be a low-entropy random-number generator in certain devices or firmware, potentially creating predictable wallet seeds. One hypothesis is that an attacker, aware of the flaw, used a script to brute-force a limited set of derivation paths, primarily affecting native SegWit addresses and leading to partial drains in some cases. Investigations are ongoing.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury, via OFAC, imposed sanctions on two Iranian companies, Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Company (PGMIC) and Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority, accusing them of operating a sanctions evasion scheme involving maritime insurance paid for with cryptocurrencies. The action also targeted eight vessels and eight companies allegedly part of Iran's "shadow fleet." OFAC stated that Iranian authorities forced commercial vessels to purchase mandatory insurance for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The Hormuz Safe platform, launched in May 2026 with involvement from Iran's Ministry of Economy, allowed policy payments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which the U.S. claims enabled Iran to generate revenue and circumvent sanctions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent condemned Iran's attempts to "hold global trade hostage" and fund activities of the IRGC. Furthermore, OFAC sanctioned shipping companies and tankers accused of transporting millions of barrels of Iranian oil to China, the UAE, and other destinations despite international restrictions. All designated assets under U.S. jurisdiction are now blocked, and transactions with them by U.S. persons are prohibited. These sanctions come amid reported diplomatic outreach from the U.S. to Iran, which has so far gone unanswered by the IRGC.

A prominent crypto analyst, known as "Killa," has offered a clear perspective against expectations of a major Bitcoin (BTC) crash. With BTC trading around $64,000, the analyst asserts the cryptocurrency has likely found its bottom and a sharp drop to the $36,000-$48,000 range, feared by many investors, is improbable. Analyzing past bear cycles, Killa notes Bitcoin typically forms three major lows, with the latter two being decisive. Following a recent dip to approximately $59,000, BTC formed a minor bullish divergence, and selling pressure proved insufficient to push prices significantly lower. This indicates market strength rather than weakness, with conditions for a major collapse largely absent. The analyst states Bitcoin has now entered a clear accumulation range, viewing the ~$57,000 level as a key lower boundary. While short-term dips below this level may occur, they would not signal a new bear market. Historical trends show prices tend to recover after major lows, and a prolonged, sharp fall to the $36k-$48k range does not align with the current market structure. Killa concludes that if Bitcoin were to initiate a new downtrend toward $40,000, it would likely have happened already. *This is not investment advice.

The Japanese yen recorded its largest daily gain against the US dollar after the USD/JPY pair reversed from a recent high near 164.00. This suggests movements in the yen can impact global financial conditions, including Bitcoin. On the daily chart, the USD/JPY reversal followed a multi-month rally. Intense selling erased several days of gains, pushing the pair below 160.00 before a recovery to around 160.59. Despite signs of demand at lower levels, the failed attempt to hold above recent highs indicates weakening bullish momentum. The yen strengthened by as much as 3%, pulling the dollar down to an intraday low of 158.34. Analysts note the move's scale and unusually high trading volumes resemble past intervention episodes. Market focus is now on the Bank of Japan's signals and interest rate outlook, with hawkish cues potentially supporting further yen strength. A stronger yen could create short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin, particularly if investors unwind carry trades funded by cheap yen borrowings. However, if sustained yen strength lowers Japanese government bond yields and improves global liquidity, it could eventually foster more favorable conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price fell 2.5% to $62,500, which may reflect initial investor selling.