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Experts anticipate Bitcoin will remain under pressure in August, lacking momentum for a sustained rally after a partial July recovery. The price, trading around $63.5k, is seen stuck in a $60-65k range. Analysts cite a challenging macro environment of high U.S. rates, persistent inflation, and a strong dollar as key headwinds, alongside record ETF outflows. Historically, August is a weak month for crypto. Experts outline three main scenarios: a base case of sideways movement between $58-68k (50% probability), a bearish drop to $50-55k (30%), or a bullish push toward $71-75k (20%). Key levels to watch are support at $60-61k and resistance at $67k. While some see current prices as attractive for long-term accumulation, most warn of potential short-term downside, with a retest of $60k or even a fall toward $53k possible. A decisive market turnaround is not expected before Q4, making August a month for testing key levels rather than a major breakout.

Bitcoin users are urged to take immediate action following the disclosure of a critical security vulnerability. Hardware wallet manufacturer Coinkite has revealed a flaw in the seed phrase generation process for certain Coldcard Mk3 devices running firmware versions 4.0.1 through 5.0.3. All bitcoin addresses created from seed phrases generated on these potentially affected devices are now considered at risk. This warning coincides with an ongoing investigation into a major hack that drained approximately 1,082.65 BTC (worth roughly $70.2 million at the time) from 1,196 single-signature wallets in just 41 minutes on July 30. Security analysts believe the coordinated thefts, which used identical transaction fees and left no change, were executed by an automated tool scanning for compromised private keys. Notably, this attack occurred about 30 hours before Coinkite's public disclosure of the Coldcard vulnerability, raising concerns of a possible connection. Experts strongly recommend that impacted Coldcard Mk3 users do not consider their old seed phrase safe. The advised course of action is to generate a completely new, secure seed phrase on a trusted, modern hardware wallet and then transfer all funds to addresses derived from this new seed. Simply moving the old, potentially compromised seed to a new device is not sufficient.

Galaxy Research has identified 1,196 addresses linked to the Coldcard wallet incident, with losses now estimated at 1,082.65 Bitcoin, approximately $70.2 million. The analysis traced the suspicious Bitcoin movements in a 41-minute window on July 30. This figure significantly revises an earlier preliminary estimate of $38 million. The stolen funds shared specific on-chain patterns, though future attacks may differ. Coinkite, Coldcard's maker, has taken responsibility for a firmware bug, released a hotfix, and advised users who generated seeds on vulnerable firmware to move their funds to a new seed.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ended July with gains but entered August with historically weak performance indicators. Past monthly trends suggest a negative closing for both cryptocurrencies in August cannot be ruled out. In July, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, gaining 18.5% compared to Bitcoin's 7%. However, Ethereum's August performance since 2016 is mixed, having closed higher in only 4 out of 10 years. Its best August was in 2017 with a 92.86% surge, while its worst was in 2018 with a 34.79% decline. While Ethereum's average August return is 6.74%, its median return is -1.74%, indicating the positive average is heavily skewed by a few strong rallies. Bitcoin's historical August data is also not decisively bullish. Its average return is 1.06%, but the median is -6.99%, showing negative closings are more common. Recently, Bitcoin has shown volatility in August, gaining 8.13% in 2025, 2.95% in 2024, and declining 4.02% in 2023. In summary, while the average August returns for both assets are positive, the negative median returns imply that strong rallies inflate the average, and a negative monthly performance is a more typical outcome for August.

Fidelity's Q3 Crypto Signal Report analyzes the current bear market, noting Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) are in a prolonged bottoming phase. Key indicators like the weighted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) have turned negative (-0.01), signaling the market is slightly below its aggregate cost basis, with BTC acting as the primary stabilizing asset. BTC's dominance has risen to 68%, indicating a lack of capital rotation to other digital assets. Performance has been weak across the board, with BTC, ETH, and SOL down significantly year-to-date. Market sentiment is depressed, exacerbated by substantial outflows from spot ETPs and a challenging macro environment. The report compares the current ~203-day downtrend to historical ~300-day bottoming cycles, suggesting the process may be two-thirds complete, with late 2026 as a potential timeframe to monitor. For Bitcoin, NUPL at 0.09 indicates cautious sentiment, while momentum signals remain negative. The Yardstick metric points to potential undervaluation relative to network security (hashrate). Ethereum's NUPL is deep in the "capitulation" zone at -0.43, a historically positive signal for future returns, though its momentum and network fee revenue are negative. Solana shows the deepest NUPL at -0.72 but demonstrates relative resilience in on-chain activity and stablecoin transfer volume. The report concludes that while several metrics are near historical capitulation levels, a definitive market bottom has not yet been established. The path forward likely involves continued consolidation, with BTC's relative strength and fundamental on-chain usage for ETH and SOL providing key areas for investor observation.