Kyle Samani: Uncertainty Surrounding Kalshi and U.S. Crypto Perpetual Contracts May Lead to Three Potential Outcomes

05/30 09:40

Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital, analyzed the development of Kalshi and the U.S. crypto perpetual contract market on the X platform, suggesting three potential scenarios: 1. Kalshi's previous efforts may be irrelevant, as the U.S. market already offers non-regulated perpetual contracts. 2. The protocol must meet the eight decentralized tests of the CLARITY Act: If the CLARITY Act is successfully passed, the protocol could offer perpetual contracts in the U.S. without registering as a DCO (Designated Contract Organizer) and DCM (Designated Contract Market). 3. The product may still attract users but could be unable to legally enter the U.S. financial system: Even if users accept it, the protocol may still struggle to distribute within a compliant framework. The analysis highlights the complex relationship between current U.S. derivatives regulation and decentralized protocols, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the launch of innovative financial products within legal compliance.

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