Reasons for the Collapse of Optical Modules: Top Institutions Report Delays in Mass Production

On June 10, independent research institution SemiAnalysis, focused on semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and data centers, released its latest multi-vertical research note, highlighting significant delays in two key technological paths for AI data centers. Firstly, the shipment of NVIDIA's native 800VDC architecture has been significantly postponed. The report indicates that NVIDIA's originally planned large-scale adoption of the single-ended 800VDC power design has pushed its shipment window to 2028. While the 400VDC high-voltage direct current solution is still progressing as planned, hyperscalers currently prefer to continue using mature low-voltage solutions or gradually transition to 400VDC, rather than rushing to switch to 800VDC. The report notes that the marginal benefits of 800VDC in terms of current grid power supply and efficiency improvements are insufficient to justify its complexity, leading the industry to temporarily slow down. Secondly, the mass production and delivery pace of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) has also slowed. The expected shipment volume of CPO in 2027 is significantly lower than previous aggressive market forecasts, with large-scale production potentially delayed until 2028 or even 2029. The shipment volume of scale-out CPO switches faces downward adjustment risks, primarily due to bottlenecks in optical engine connection yield, ASIC integration difficulty, and overall cost economics. Currently, in an optimistic scenario, the optical engine connection yield is about 95%, but the CPO output driven by a single ASIC remains very limited. SemiAnalysis predicts that 400VDC products are expected to ramp up in the second quarter of 2026, with significant growth in 2027; some Near Package Optics (NPO) projects may accelerate. However, shipments relying on new platforms like Rubin Ultra / Kyber will be delayed until the 2028 window, putting pressure on related power, switch, and optical module suppliers. SemiAnalysis holds a relatively positive outlook on companies like Amphenol, Vertiv, and Legrand, while being more cautious about Lumentum, Himax, Navitas, and Wolfspeed.