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Check In Weekly, Win Prizes Weekly — Join the Fun!Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!Zama: Cross-Chain Privacy Layer with FHE随着比特币价格跌穿关键支撑位,数字资产市场的动荡正在加剧,而处于这场风暴中心的Strategy(MSTR)正面临前所未有的压

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随着比特币价格跌穿关键支撑位,数字资产市场的动荡正在加剧,而处于这场风暴中心的Strategy(MSTR)正面临前所未有的压力。

这家由Michael Saylor创立的公司周四确认,受持有的比特币资产公允价值大幅减记影响,第四季度净亏损高达124亿美元。亏损主要源于会计准则要求的按市值计价(mark-to-market)带来的174亿美元未实现公允价值损失。

随着比特币跌破63000美元,Strategy股价周四重挫17.1%。不仅抹去了美国大选后的所有涨幅,也导致该股较2024年11月的历史高点下跌了近80%。



该公司持有的比特币目前价值约460亿美元,平均购买成本为每枚76052美元,这是自2023年以来,该公司的比特币持仓市值首次跌破其累计成本基础。

面对市场崩盘,Michael Saylor在财报电话会上承认,“出售比特币是一个选项”,尽管他在社交媒体X上高呼“HODL”(坚定持有)。

更令市场不安的是,曾经凭借“股权溢价”不断融资买币的循环模式已然停滞,公司持仓成本首次高于市场价格,其财务实验正面临严峻考验。

随着MSTR股价暴跌,可转债投资者很可能寻求尽早赎回现金而非转股。首笔10亿美元的赎回可能在2027年9月15日到期,另有64亿美元可能在2028年到期,总计82亿美元的潜在现金需求正在逼近。

融资买币的逻辑面临考验

Strategy曾作为比特币的高贝塔值(High-Beta)代理工具,其股价在2020年至2024年间飙升了超过3500%。然而,这一引擎正建立在不稳固的基础之上。随着现货比特币ETF的推出,投资者有了更廉价、更直接的风险敞口,Strategy的独特性被削弱。

更为关键的是估值溢价的崩溃。Strategy的企业价值曾一度接近其比特币持仓价值的两倍,但如今这一溢价已几乎被抹平。如果比特币价格维持在当前水平,Strategy市值仅需再下跌约13%即可完全消除溢价。一旦mNAV(企业价值与加密资产价值之比)跌破1,意味着公司市值低于其持有的币值,融资买币的逻辑将彻底失效。

在财报发布后的电话会中,CEO Phong Le试图安抚投资者,称“这是你们经历的第一次低迷,我的建议是坚持住”,但这一言论在直播评论区引发了愤怒。Benchmark Co.分析师Mark Palmer指出,在当前环境下,市场焦点已转向公司如何在充满挑战的条件下筹集资金。

账面已处于资不抵债状态

财务数据的恶化加剧了市场对Strategy偿债能力的担忧。数据显示,截至2月1日,该公司持有超过71.3万枚比特币,平均成本基础为76052美元。随着比特币交易价格远低于这一成本线,Strategy的账面已处于资不抵债状态。

Strategy背负着82亿美元的可转换债务,虽然Saylor强调公司拥有22.5亿美元现金储备,足以覆盖未来两年的利息和股息支付,且没有保证金追缴风险,但市场担忧依然存在。

目前Strategy的可转债结构显示出不同的到期压力节点。2024年9月发行的10.1亿美元可转债转股价为183.19美元,持有人可在2027年9月15日行使回售权。2024年11月发行的30亿美元零息可转债转股价高达672.4美元,可在2028年6月1日回售。此外,还有多笔转股价在149.77美元至433.43美元之间的可转债将在2028年面临回售压力。



S&P Global在之前的报告中曾警告,若比特币价格在债务到期时遭遇严重压力,可能迫使公司在低价位清算资产,这将被视为“等同于违约”的债务重组。

Phong Le在电话会议上坦言,如果比特币下跌90%,公司将无法仅靠出售比特币来偿还债务,届时将不得不寻求债务重组。

Saylor坚持看涨立场

尽管面临压力,Saylor在财报电话会议上仍保持乐观。"我们有一位加密货币总统,他决心让美国成为比特币超级大国、世界加密货币之都和数字资产领导者,"Saylor表示。"你不能低估在政治结构最高层获得对该行业和数字资本支持的重要性。"

Saylor还淡化了量子计算对比特币的威胁,称其"至少10年后才会构成威胁",并重申这是"FUD"(恐惧、不确定性和怀疑)。他保持了一贯立场,即出售比特币仍是应对市场状况的选项之一。

Strategy周四重申,预计当前年度及可预见未来不会产生盈利和利润。基于这些预期,该公司表示目前向永续优先股持有人的分配预计免税。

然而,Michael B

随着比特币价格跌穿关键支撑位,数字资产市场的动荡正在加剧,而处于这场风暴中心的Strategy(MS

GWEI: Financializing Ethereum Blockspace

Claim1,200 USDT in the Monthly Creation ChallengePost To Earn Bonus Ethereum Price Crash: ETH Coin Might Sink Below $2,000 After Bitcoin's 70K Breach The crypto market is currently witnessing a signif

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Ethereum Price Crash: ETH Coin Might Sink Below $2,000 After Bitcoin's 70K Breach

The crypto market is currently witnessing a significant "bloodbath" as we navigate through February 2026. Ethereum ($ETH) has seen a sharp decline, fueled by $Bitcoin losing its critical $70,000 foothold. This downward momentum has left the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap fighting for survival at the $2,000 psychological level.

Vitalik Buterin Selling Spree Adds to Fear

Adding fuel to the bearish fire, on-chain reports from Coinpaper and other analytics platforms have confirmed that Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold 2,972 $ETH (worth approximately $6.69 million) over the last three days. While these sales are often associated with philanthropy via the Kanro entity, the timing has intensified the "panic selling" sentiment among retail traders.

When the most prominent figure in the ecosystem moves such a volume to exchanges during a market-wide correction, it often signals a lack of immediate upward catalysts, causing investors to seek safety in hardware wallets to protect their remaining capital.

Technical Analysis: The Path to $1,550

The below $ETH/USD 1-hour chart shows a textbook descending channel that has dominated the price action since early February.

The $2,000 Brink: As of today, $ETH is trading near $2,084. The Stochastic RSI is hovering at 27.56, which is nearing the oversold zone, but the sheer volume of the sell-off suggests that the bottom is not yet in.

Resistance Flips: The previous support at $2,200 has officially flipped into a "ceiling," making any relief bounce difficult to sustain.

Bearish Targets: If the daily candle closes below the $2,000 mark, the next historical "demand zone" sits at $1,800. A failure there would open the door for a deeper crash toward $1,550, a level not seen since the consolidation phases of late 2025.
Market Contagion and Exchange Flows



Ethereum Price Crash: ETH Coin Might Sink Below $2

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Цена биткоина (BTC) продолжает резкое падение: потеряно 1,6 миллиарда долларов! Вот причина падения и последние данные! Криптовалютные рынки были потрясены резкой распродажей прошлой ночью. За это вре

Цена биткоина (BTC) продолжает резкое падение: пот

Check In Weekly, Win Prizes Weekly — Join the Fun!Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!CLAWNCH: Launchpad by and for AI Agents國會獲悉，財政部無權救助比特幣或強制銀行購買比特幣，即便川普的戰略儲備金中仍持有價值已從5億美元飆升至150億美元的被扣押比特

國會獲悉，財政部無權救助比特幣或強制銀行購買比特幣，即便川普的戰略儲備金中仍持有價值已從5億美元飆升至150億美元的被扣押比特幣。貝森特向眾議員謝爾曼總結道，財政部和金融穩定監督委員會（FSOC）無權救助比特幣，也無權指示私人銀行購買比特幣或與川普相關的其他加密貨幣。他證實，根據川普的戰略比特幣儲備令，美國持有被扣押的比特幣，價值已從約5億美元增加到超過150億美元。川普2025年的行政命令將新增儲備比特幣的來源限制為扣押或預算中性的資產互換，排除了使用稅金在公開市場購買比特幣的可能性。美國財政部長斯科特貝森特週三向國會表示，財政部無權在市場崩盤的情況下救助比特幣或指示私人銀行購買這種加密貨幣。貝森特發布新指導方針。貝森特是在國會作證時回應加州眾議員布拉德謝爾曼的質詢時發表上述聲明的。謝爾曼是比特幣和加密貨幣的批評者。他詢問財政部或聯邦公開市場委員會的某些部門是否有權救助比特幣。謝爾曼還詢問貝森特是否計劃通過修改銀行存款準備金率來指示私人銀行收購與唐納德·特朗普總統相關的比特幣或模因幣。你可能也喜歡：比特幣價格預測：比特幣價格跌破7萬美元，清算激增。 「我是財政部長。我沒有權力這樣做，作為金融穩定監督委員會（FSOC）主席，我也沒有這樣的權力，」貝森特在證詞中表示。貝森特確認，美國將保留透過資產查封獲得的比特幣。在作證期間，他表示，美國政府扣押的價值5億美元的比特幣已增加到超過150億美元。這次作證更新了川普於2025年3月透過行政命令設立的比特幣戰略儲備計畫的最新進展。該行政命令規定，美國祇能透過資產沒收或預算中性策略來獲取額外的比特幣以充實戰略儲備。預算中性策略不會增加美國預算支出，包括將現有儲備資產（例如石油或貴金屬）轉換為比特幣。這項限制意味著美國政府不會透過公開市場操作來獲取額外的比特幣。根據先前的報道，貝森特曾在2025年8月表示，財政部正在探索透過預算中性方式取得比特幣。閱讀更多：Vitalik Buterin在以太坊價格下跌之際拋售了近660萬美元的以太坊。

國會獲悉，財政部無權救助比特幣或強制銀行購買比特幣，即便川普的戰略儲備金中仍持有價值已從5億美元飆升

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Check In Weekly, Win Prizes Weekly — Join the Fun!BEAT: AI-Native Web3 Entertainment EcosystemБиткоин приближается к редкой четырехмесячной серии падений: рынок не видел ничего подобного с 2018 года В

BEAT: AI-Native Web3 Entertainment Ecosystem

Биткоин приближается к редкой четырехмесячной серии падений: рынок не видел ничего подобного с 2018 года

Возобновление макроэкономической неопределенности в связи с очередным прекращением работы правительства США и вызванным этим тупиком в отношении прогресса в принятии Закона CLARITY подорвали биткоин и криптовалютный рынок в целом. Большая часть импульса, который мы наблюдали в первые две недели года, теперь утрачена.

Вдобавок к этой перезагрузке, биткоин балансирует на грани написания неприятной главы в своей истории. Впервые с 2018 года биткоин близок к четвертому подряд месяцу падения. По мере приближения конца месяца трейдеры нацелены на отметку в 87,8 тыс. долларов для BTC, поскольку закрытие ниже этого уровня фактически подтвердит этот результат.

Намечается редкая историческая закономерность

Коррекции или просадки на бычьем рынке биткоина — не редкость.  На самом деле, если мы посмотрим на историю, текущая коррекция примерно на 30% от максимумов, установленных в октябре прошлого года, вполне укладывается в диапазон прошлых коррекций бычьего цикла. Мы даже видели более крутые коррекции, как, например, в бычьем цикле 2021 года, прежде чем восходящий тренд в конечном итоге возобновился.
Однако примечательно, как редко Биткоин демонстрировал четыре последовательных месячных красных свечи. Примечательно, что в последний раз это произошло в 2018 году, когда Биткоин не прервал свою серию красных месяцев четвертой. Вместо этого Биткоин продолжил падение примерно на 20% с еще двумя красными месяцами. Аналогичная ситуация наблюдалась в 2015 году, когда потери в конечном итоге приблизились к 60% после четырехмесячной красной серии.
Вывод не в том, что история должна повторяться, а в том, что асимметрия риска возрастает вокруг этих точек перегиба. Четвертая месячная красная свеча, за которой последуют подтверждения, такие как более крутой нисходящий импульс, низкий объе

Биткоин приближается к редкой четырехмесячной сери

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Check In Weekly, Win Prizes Weekly — Join the Fun!Join Nov. Creation to share of 1,000 USDTClaim1,200 USDT in the Monthly Creation ChallengeJapan’s Move on XRP! It’s Being Demoted from Crypto Asset St

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Japan’s Move on XRP! It’s Being Demoted from Crypto Asset Status! What Does It Mean? Here Are the Details

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to formally reclassify Ripple’s XRP token as a “regulated financial product” before the second quarter of 2026.

This step means that XRP will be removed from its current “crypto asset” status under the Payment Services Act and placed under the stricter Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA).

Officials state that the primary purpose of this change is to resolve the discrepancy between XRP’s actual use in Japan and its legal status.

XRP already plays a key role in the country’s banking and international money transfer infrastructure and is actively used by many financial institutions. The new classification aims to make XRP’s legal status more suitable for large-scale institutional adoption in Japan.

Following the reclassification, XRP will gain “investment grade” status as a financial instrument, similar to traditional stocks and bonds. This is expected to encourage new capital inflows into XRP, particularly by increasing interest from institutional investors. It is also suggested that this step could set a precedent for other major digital assets.

Under the new regulations, exchanges and liquidity providers will be required to provide more comprehensive disclosures about the asset’s volatility, technical characteristics, and relationship with the issuer. In addition, insider trading and market manipulation are explicitly prohibited, aiming to strengthen investor protection.

Experts say that Japan’s move could be a significant milestone in creating a clearer and more predictable regulatory framework for cryptocurrency markets
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Japan’s Move on XRP! It’s Being Demoted from Crypt

The Sichuanese "老子" Meme Taking Crypto by Storm

Check In Weekly, Win Prizes Weekly — Join the Fun!Create Content for HTX and Win a Share of 1000U!Zama: Cross-Chain Privacy Layer with FHEThe latest quarterly report from Strategy comes amid a sharp s

The latest quarterly report from Strategy comes amid a sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, with the company announcing a massive fourth-quarter loss, primarily due to an accounting impairment of its Bitcoin holdings—a move that has punished the stock.

Strategy reportedly suffered a significant impact on its operating results due to the sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, and the company expects a net loss of $12.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025. On Thursday, the company's stock fell approximately 17% as Bitcoin prices plummeted to just over $60,000 during the broader market downturn.

The company stated that as of February 1st, it held 713,502 Bitcoins at a total cost of $54.26 billion, implying an average purchase price of approximately $76,052 per Bitcoin. The company also highlighted its 2025 fiscal year "Bitcoin yield" of 22.8% and stated that it added 41,002 Bitcoins in January 2026 alone.

Bitcoin Price Drop Floods This Quarter

Strategy's fourth-quarter operating loss was $17.4 billion, which the company attributed to unrealized fair value losses on its digital assets under a new accounting method.  This was ultimately reflected in net income, resulting in a net loss of $12.4 billion (approximately $42.93 per diluted share).

Despite the loss, Strategy still held $2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2025, a significant increase from the previous year, thanks to its accumulated dollar reserves.

Bitcoin Holdings and Valuation Overview

In its dashboard disclosure, Strategy stated that as of January 30, its Bitcoin position was valued at approximately $59.75 billion, with a Bitcoin price of approximately $83,740, and a cost basis of $54.26 billion.

This market capitalization-based valuation framework conflicted with Thursday's market movements: Bitcoin fell to a range of approxima

The latest quarterly report from Strategy comes am

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🚨In the last 24 hours, $INTC $2 BILLION was liquidated from crypto. Bitcoin dumped over $10,000 and dropped below $64,000, wiping out $200 billion from its market cap. Ethereum fell below $1,850, wipi

Today's Crypto Market News: Despite the global market crash, DeepSnitch AI surges 150%, with smart money joining the 300x bet, while Polygon and Kaspa attempt to regain momentum. The US Department of 

Today's Crypto Market News: Despite the global mar

Claim1,200 USDT in the Monthly Creation Challenge On February 5, 2026, a significant milestone in Japan’s industrial strategy was reached as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) announced pla


On February 5, 2026, a significant milestone in Japan’s industrial strategy was reached as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) announced plans to produce advanced 3-nanometer chips at its second facility in Kumamoto Prefecture. This move, discussed during a meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei, marks a pivotal shift in Japan’s ambition to reclaim its status as a global semiconductor powerhouse.
The decision to manufacture 3nm technology—essential for the next generation of artificial intelligence and high-end smartphones—addresses the surging global demand for AI-capable hardware. For Japan, the partnership represents more than just industrial capacity; it is a strategic maneuver to secure domestic supply chains amidst heightening geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.
Predictions and Market Outlook
Analysts predict that this expansion will catalyze a "silicon rush" in Kyushu, attracting a cluster of satellite industries and high-tech talent to the region. Economists anticipate that the presence of 3nm production will significantly bolster Japan’s GDP growth in the tech sector through the late 2020s. Furthermore, market experts forecast that if Japan continues to offer aggressive subsidies, it may successfully bridge the technological gap with Taiwan and South Korea, positioning itself as the primary alternative hub for global chip supply by 2030.
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f2pool: Mining rigs with an energy consumption of 22W/T have reached the break-even point, and the Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to decrease by more than 10% soon.

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