Bitcoin trend analysis and trading strategy🧐🔥

$BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) {future}(BTCUSDT) Currently, Bitcoin is close to 96K-97K, and the overall trend is still bullish, but there is pressure for adjustment in the short term. I think the trend of Bitcoin may continue to rise after a short correction next week, but we need to pay attention to several key factors: 1. Bullish reasons (the logic that Bitcoin may continue to rise) 1. The market is still in a bull market structure • Bitcoin's upward trend since 2024 has not been broken, and it still has the potential to continue to hit 100K in the long run. • The correction may be a normal correction in the market and will not change the overall upward trend. 2. Strong inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETF • Institutional funds are still flowing in, especially the newly approved spot ETFs, which has pushed Bitcoin prices to remain strong. • The incremental funds brought by ETFs are changing the market structure of Bitcoin, making Bitcoin a mainstream investment asset. 3. The expectation of halving is still strong • After the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the effect of supply reduction may continue to ferment in 2025. • Historical data shows that Bitcoin has the potential to rise sharply 12-18 months after each halving. 2. Bearish reasons (risk of short-term adjustment) 1. Short-term gains are too large, and there is a need for adjustment • Bitcoin has accumulated a large increase from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2025, and the market needs a short-term adjustment to clean up floating chips. • If it fails to break through 98K-100K, it may pull back to 92K-95K in the short term. 2. Market sentiment cools down, and some funds take profits • Market sentiment has been overheated in the past few weeks. Once market sentiment falls, short-term traders may choose to cash out. • If there is a pullback, the support area of ​​90K-92K may be tested. 3. Macroeconomic and Fed policy impact • If the Fed postpones the rate cut or releases more hawkish signals, the market may be under pressure in the short term, leading to Bitcoin adjustments. • Pay attention to the US dollar index (DXY) and US Treasury yields. If they rise, they may put short-term pressure on Bitcoin. 3. Trading strategy (how to deal with it?) Short-term traders (swing trading) • If Bitcoin pulls back to 92K-95K, consider going long in batches, with the stop loss set below 90K. • If it breaks through 98K-100K, you can increase your position with the target of 105K-110K. • If it falls below 90K, be cautious in the short term, and may test the lower support of 85K-88K. Medium- and long-term investors (trend trading) • Buy on dips. If Bitcoin falls to 90K-92K, it is a good long-term position. • Target price: 120K and above. It is expected that the Bitcoin bull market will still have further upward space in 2025. • Key support levels: 92K, 88K; key resistance levels: 100K, 110K. 4. Conclusion: The bull market remains unchanged, but there is a need for short-term adjustments 1. The long-term trend is still bullish, with a target of more than 100K. 2. There is a technical correction in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support of 92K-95K. 3. Short-term traders should be cautious in chasing highs and wait for a correction before entering the market. Summary: Short-term adjustments will not change the long-term bull market, and layout on dips is still the main theme.