MyShell (SHELL) Plunge

The article investigates the recent $247.3 million investment by Hong Kong-listed GCL New Energy into the Layer 1 blockchain project Pharos at a $950 million valuation. It reveals the deal is not a straightforward investment but a complex, multi-stage transaction bound by stringent performance milestones. The core of the agreement is a set of mutual, conditional investments. Pharos must first purchase up to $1.5 billion HKD worth of GCL shares. However, GCL's reciprocal investment in Pharos tokens is contingent upon a series of strict, performance-based vesting conditions. The entire deal is split into five tranches, each unlocking only if the Pharos token lists on an exchange without falling below its issue price and maintains a high fully diluted valuation (FDV) over successive three-month periods. If any condition fails, the entire agreement can be terminated. The article questions the legitimacy of the $950 million valuation, which was calculated based on a purported $250 million in Total Value Locked (TVL). Notably, over half of this TVL is claimed to be from real-world assets (RWA), specifically photovoltaic and power station assets linked to GCL—a highly unconventional method for valuing a Layer 1 blockchain. Furthermore, the mainnet is not yet live, and the TVL figure is unverified by independent data platforms. The author suggests the deal is a "capital game" designed to boost GCL's stock price, which saw suspicious pre-announcement surges, and to create hype for the upcoming Pharos token launch, ultimately passing the risk onto the market and future investors.