Hyperliquid Price(HYPE)

**Market Enters Critical Week: Bitcoin Pullback Test and HYPE Support Battle** The market enters a crucial phase of contention this week. The marginal shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations continue to dictate the pricing rhythm for risk assets. Meanwhile, in the crypto market, following a period of sideways consolidation, the divergence between bulls and bears is becoming concentrated at key price levels. **Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis & Strategy** * **Technical View:** The 4-hour chart suggests BTC is in a five-wave structure since the June 5th low near $59,100. Price action shows a short-term rising channel. The recent drop below this channel's lower boundary is now being followed by a pullback attempt (wave 40-41). The outcome of this retest is critical. * **This Week's Outlook:** The core focus is whether BTC can reclaim and hold above the channel's lower boundary. * **Bullish Scenario:** A successful hold could lead to a continued rebound, potentially challenging the $69,500 - $70,500 resistance zone. * **Bearish Scenario:** Failure to hold may trigger a renewed test of the $59,000 - $60,000 core support area, with $55,000 as a deeper support level. * **Operational Strategy:** The author maintains a 20% mid-term short position initiated last week near $64,500, based on a model signaling a shift to a bearish structure. Short-term tactics involve using 30% capital for potential "spread" trades, with three contingency plans (A, B, C) outlined for reacting to resistance tests, breakouts, or support breakdowns. **HYPE Analysis & Strategy** * **Technical View:** On the 4-hour chart, HYPE shows strong momentum, having recently broken to a new high since January. The current pullback presents a clear three-wave correction structure, bringing the price back to the critical $64 - $66 support zone. * **This Week's Outlook:** The focus is on the battle for the $64 - $66 support area. * **Bullish Scenario:** Holding this support could signal a continuation of the uptrend from the June 10th low, leading to new highs. * **Bearish Scenario:** A breakdown could extend the correction, potentially testing the deeper $52 - $54 support band. * **Operational Strategy:** The recommended short-term approach is "buy on dips, avoid chasing rallies." A light long position (under 30% capital) could be considered if HYPE shows stabilization signals at the $64-$66 or $52-$54 support zones, confirmed by model signals. Strict stop-loss discipline is emphasized. **General Risk Management:** A strict trailing stop-loss protocol is advised: set an initial stop; move to breakeven at +1% profit; lock in profits progressively thereafter. *Disclaimer: All analysis is presented as the author's personal technical perspective and trading log, not as investment advice. Markets are complex and dynamic; risk control is paramount.*

This weekly analysis outlines a critical juncture for BTC and HYPE markets, focusing on key price level confirmations. **BTC Analysis:** BTC is at a pivotal point after a five-wave rally from the June 5th low of $59,100. The price has broken below a short-term rising channel's lower boundary, with the current move seen as a pullback to test this breakdown. Failure to reclaim this level could lead to a retest of the $59,000-$60,000 support zone. The core scenario hinges on this channel retest outcome. * **Key Levels:** Resistance at $64,500-$65,000 (channel boundary) and $69,500-$70,500. Support at $59,000-$60,000 and $55,000. * **Strategy:** A core bearish stance is maintained (20% short from last week), with short-term plans for tactical trades. Three detailed contingency plans (A/B/C) are provided for short positions on resistance tests or breakdowns, emphasizing strict stop-loss discipline. **HYPE Analysis:** HYPE shows strong momentum but is currently in a corrective phase after hitting a new high of $76.94. The price is retesting the crucial $64-$66 support area. * **Key Levels:** Resistance near $77 and $80-$82. Support at $64-$66 and $52-$54. * **Strategy:** The short-term approach is "buy on dips, avoid chasing rallies." A long position is considered only if clear stabilization signals appear at the $64-$66 or deeper $52-$54 support zones, with tight risk controls. **General Risk Management:** A standardized trailing stop-loss protocol is emphasized: set initial stop, breakeven at +1% profit, then trail stops upward to lock in gains. *Disclaimer: All analysis is presented as a personal trading framework, not investment advice. Market conditions are complex and require dynamic adjustment.*

Hyperliquid's stablecoin market is showing a significant shift, with liquidity moving away from its native USDH and concentrating heavily around USD Coin (USDC). USDH holdings have sharply declined to only $20 million, while USDC now dominates the pool with $5.74 billion of the total $5.96 billion. This reflects a trader preference for deeper liquidity and established assets. To facilitate the transition, Hyperliquid Foundation has issued roughly $10 million in grants, and users can swap USDH for USDC via migration paths. Despite the stablecoin migration, protocol activity remains strong. Daily Active Addresses and Daily Transactions are sustained at high levels, and Perpetual Trading Volume stays near $2.8 billion, reinforcing Hyperliquid's position in on-chain derivatives. This activity generates substantial Annualized Fee Revenue, which increasingly flows into the HYPE token through staking, fees, and buybacks, shifting its value capture from speculation to recurring ecosystem fees. The continued growth of USDC liquidity and trading activity is seen as crucial for strengthening HYPE's long-term utility, while USDH would require significant utility improvements to regain market share.

**Title: Is There Another Wave for Web3 Gaming? A Veteran Player's Review: When Hype Peaks, You Must Exit at Least Half** **Summary:** In an interview, veteran player "Earn Money Chicken" shares his journey and reflections on Web3 gaming. He transitioned from being a traditional in-game trader to a Web3 gamer, having profited from games like Mobox, StepN, and Seraph, but also experiencing significant losses. He defines himself primarily as a player, not an investor, attracted to Web3 games for the blend of earning potential, engaging gameplay, and the satisfaction of researching game mechanics. While he enjoys strategic "gambling" within games, he emphasizes it's not about zero-sum competition with other players. The interview explores the complex, often adversarial relationship between players, projects, and major investors (whales). The player's experience as a traditional game merchant helped develop his analytical mindset for spotting opportunities, but wasn't directly transferable. He identifies the core sources of profit in early Web3 gaming as **"era红利" (era-specific红利)** and strategic foresight, not just simple calculations. He warns that the biggest mistake ordinary players make is calculating their return-on-investment (ROI) period at peak hype, as asset and yield depreciation can trap them. Reflecting on his wins and losses, he now advocates for managing expectations. His most successful exit was from Seraph, where he sold at a relatively good time. The key problem with current Web3 games, he argues, is that most are not mature games first. A successful Web3 game must primarily be a **good, fun game** with a genuine player base willing to spend money for enjoyment, not just participants seeking profit. The blockchain element should solve problems within that context, not be the primary driver. While he believes the sector might see another speculative boom (possibly another strong "Ponzi" model attracting hype), a truly mature and sustainable Web3 game likely needs to come from a traditional major game studio. It would leverage a proven IP, mature content, a functional NFT trading system, and attract both traditional and crypto-native players, offering more normalized returns rather than extreme暴利. His final advice: Newcomers without prior experience should avoid the space now, as it's like searching for a diamond in the rough. For those remaining, the rule is: be brave when assets are low and overlooked, but **when everyone is talking about it (at peak hype), you must sell at least half your holdings.**

**Weekly Technical Analysis: BTC & HYPE Structure Review** This analysis covers the multi-timeframe technical structure for Bitcoin (BTC) and HYPE. **Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis:** BTC's correction from its May 6 high has formed a clear four-segment pattern on the daily chart. The market is currently in a (3-4) rebound phase. The key determinant for the short-term trend is the endpoint of this rebound ("Endpoint 4"): * **Path 1 (Preferred Scenario):** If the rebound surpasses the $65,700 resistance, subsequent pullbacks are less likely to break the key support at $57,820 (July 1 low). This would suggest a transition into a consolidating range, building energy for a potential bullish reversal. * **Path 2:** Failure to reach $65,700, or even $64,500, increases the probability of a breakdown below $57,820, continuing the downtrend. The 4-hour chart shows a completed five-wave decline from June 15, culminating in a momentum divergence at the low, which supported the recent bounce. **BTC Weekly Outlook & Strategy (Jul 6-12):** * **Core View:** Focus on the high point of the daily rebound from $57,820. * **Key Levels:** * Resistance: $64,500-$65,700; $67,300; $69,500-$71,000. * Support: $60,950-$62,300; $57,820; $55,000. * **Strategy:** * **Mid-term:** Maintain ~20% short position. Consider increasing shorts to <50% if price stalls in the $65,700-$67,300 zone with confirming model signals. * **Short-term:** Use 30% capital for swing trades between support/resistance. * **Plans:** * **Plan A (Short):** Enter shorts (~30%) if price is rejected at $65,700-$67,300. * **Plan B (Long):** Enter longs (~15%) only if price breaks above $65,700 first, then pulls back and finds support near $57,820. **HYPE Analysis:** The rebound from the June 25 low has developed a seven-segment structure on the 4-hour chart. Price is approaching the historical high zone near $76.94. Internal models have triggered top warnings, suggesting caution against chasing the rally and highlighting near-term pullback risks. **HYPE Weekly Outlook & Strategy:** * **Core View:** Observe price action in the $75-$76.94 resistance area. * **Key Levels:** * Resistance: $75-$76.94; $80. * Support: $68; $65.5; $60.5-$61.5. * **Strategy:** Prioritize profit-taking and risk management. If holding longs, consider moving stop-loss to ~$68 to protect gains. Close positions promptly on signs of a downturn. **Trade Recap:** A recent short-term long trade in HYPE, entered at $64 based on model buy signals and exited at ~$70.55 on sell signals, yielded a profit of approximately 10.23%. **General Risk Management:** Always set an initial stop-loss. Move stop-loss to breakeven at +1% profit, and trail it upwards by 1% for every subsequent 1% gain to lock in profits. *Disclaimer: Market conditions change rapidly. All analysis, models, and strategies presented are for educational/log purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Trade at your own risk.*