Author: Ma He, Foresight News
On July 20, BTC continues to hover around $75,000, ETH once approached $2,000 before falling back to linger near $1,900, and most altcoins remain sluggish. According to coinglass data, total liquidations in open positions over the past 24 hours reached $116 million, with short positions accounting for $62.7 million.
Currently, the market fear & greed index stands at 35, indicating continued fear.
So, what are the current market views among institutions, analysts, and traders?
Polymarket Data: 33% Chance BTC Falls Below $50,000 This Year
The latest Polymarket data shows market bets give a 23% probability for BTC to fall below $45,000 this year, 33% to fall below $50,000, 50% to fall below $55,000, and 75% to rise to $70,000.
ARK Invest: Bitcoin Decline Diverges from Whale Accumulation, Signaling Cycle Bottom
ARK Invest's Q2 2026 Bitcoin report states that Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, breaking below the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, the 200-day moving average, and the on-chain mean, suggesting technically bearish bias remains. However, the Percentage of Supply in Loss has risen to about 54%, and Long-Term Holder supply has reached a new all-time high of approximately 14.85 million BTC, which ARK interprets as a potential signal of seller exhaustion.
The report also notes that Bitcoin has not yet retreated to the on-chain cost basis range of approximately $49,000 to $53,000, indicating downside risk is not fully priced out. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about 71,000 BTC in Q2, and Strategy's STRC preferred shares dropped to a low of $74.57.
Bitwise: Bitcoin Cycle Bottoms Are Rising, Institutional Investors Are Buying the Dip
Juan Leon, Senior Investment Strategist at Bitwise, stated that the current Bitcoin bear market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, citing rising institutional adoption while the market is simultaneously affected by the AI hype, macro uncertainty, and delays in US crypto legislation. Bitwise's institutional clients broadly fall into two categories: investors who allocated to Bitcoin over the past two years see this dip as a rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging opportunity; while another segment of large capital is still waiting for clearer regulatory frameworks. He said: "In 2022, clients asked if crypto would survive; in 2026, they ask about entry points and position sizing. It's a completely different conversation."
Leon believes the current decline is "structurally the gentlest bear market" on record for Bitcoin, with a roughly 50% drawdown from highs, lower than the 78% drop in the 2022 bear market and the 84% drop in 2018. He noted that Bitcoin's bottom in each cycle has been higher, reflecting the asset's gradual maturation and a shift in marginal holders from retail speculators to professional asset allocators.
However, Leon also acknowledged that Bitcoin could still fall further, as previous bear markets typically lasted about 12 to 13 months, while the current one is around 8 months old. He pointed out that some traditional bottoming signals are beginning to appear, including oversold momentum indicators, approximately half of Bitcoin holders being in loss, long-term holders re-accumulating, and record outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in June. Current crypto market issues stem more from macro factors than fundamentals.
Bit: Technical Trends Gradually Stabilizing, Wave C Low May Have Formed
Bit published an analysis stating: In late June, Bitcoin only slightly broke below the February low, a price action that meets the conditions for the formation of a Wave C low. If there is no significant acceleration downward after the break and the price can consistently hold above the $62,900-$65,000 range, it would further support the judgment that the final Wave C low has been formed.
According to technical analysis, the ideal scenario for this correction would be a bottoming formation in the $50,000–$55,000 range; on-chain metrics indicate the market would enter deep value territory as prices approach $47,000. Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its highs, which, while not reaching the 70%–80% retracement of previous bear markets, BIT believes is sufficient to mark a cyclical low.
Unlike previous bear markets, the main resistance now is no longer regulatory risk but insufficient investor participation enthusiasm and stubborn inflation. Meanwhile, the average cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is around $83,000, resulting in an overall unrealized loss of about 25%. Most investors seem unwilling to realize losses at current prices, which also limits selling pressure below $58,500.
glassnode Analyst: Bitcoin Faces Rising Risk of Forming Interim Top If Unable to Break $66,000 Effectively
CryptoVizArt, Chief Research Analyst at glassnode, stated in a post that the heatmap of Short-Term Holder cost basis distribution shows a new round of筹码 transfer to new buyers occurred in the $62,000 to $65,000 range during Bitcoin's rebound from $57,000.
He believes this structure has two sides. On one hand, buyers actively accumulated during the rise, potentially forming a new cost basis support, providing conditions for Bitcoin to further test levels of $66,000 and above.
On the other hand, a significant portion of this筹码 accumulation was concentrated near the end of the local rebound. If Bitcoin fails to effectively break above $66,000, the risk of forming an interim market top increases. The $66,000 level is a key short-term position for determining which of these two scenarios plays out.
Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin Forms Significant Support Band Between $59,000 and $70,000
Analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin has formed a crucial support band between $59,000 and $70,000, one of the most densely defended price ranges in Bitcoin's history. More notably, 50% of Bitcoin's total circulating supply has changed hands above $59,000, a ratio that would be even higher if the millions of BTC believed to be permanently lost are excluded. A tug-of-war between bulls and bears is underway in this zone.
The Short-Term Holder cohort is currently notably active, with their behavior diverging between capitulation and accumulation. Many Bitcoin metrics are currently in extreme sell or pessimistic zones. While the absolute bottom price cannot be pinpointed accurately, a bottoming structure is currently being built.
Trader Doctor Profit: Has Closed All Crypto Shorts and Restarted Buying Bitcoin Spot
Prominent crypto trader Doctor Profit posted that he has closed all crypto short positions, including Bitcoin shorts established between $115,000 and $125,000, another Bitcoin short between $79,000 and $82,000, and over 100 altcoin shorts opened over the past months, claiming substantial profits from these positions.
He simultaneously announced he has repurchased Bitcoin spot at $64,000, marking his first long-term allocation since September 2025. His plan is to allocate 5% of the planned capital daily for spot purchases while Bitcoin is in the $54,000 to $64,000 range, continuing for up to 20 days; if the price approaches $54,000, the buying intensity will increase.
Doctor Profit sees a clear "herd behavior" in the current market: investors who were previously bullish to $150,000 at highs are now generally waiting for Bitcoin to fall to $40,000–$50,000, viewing September or October as the four-year cycle bottom. When a large number of investors simultaneously wait for the same price and time, the market may not conform to this expectation. Therefore, he chose to build positions earlier, judging that this cycle's bottom may appear sooner than widely anticipated.
He also cited regulatory clarity, asset tokenization infrastructure, and progress in institutional adoption as structural reasons for turning bullish and retracted his previous prediction of Bitcoin falling to $40,000–$50,000. However, he retains all S&P 500 short positions, believing the crypto market has undergone significant repricing while US stock valuations remain elevated.
