# Пов'язані статті щодо Treasuries

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Treasuries", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Opinion: The Hedging Relationship Between U.S. Treasuries and Stocks Has Broken Down, and BTC, as a Risk Asset, Is Under Dual Pressure

For the past 20 years, U.S. investors relied on a free insurance policy: when stocks fell, bonds rose, cushioning portfolio losses. This reliable inverse correlation underpinned entire financial strategies. However, this mechanism broke down around 2020 and has not recovered. Currently, the two-month rolling correlation between the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yields is at -0.69, its lowest level since 1996, indicating stocks and bonds are moving in sync to an unprecedented degree, eliminating the traditional portfolio shock absorber. The失效 of this hedge is not simply due to lost confidence in U.S. debt. The key driver is the shift from growth-dominated to inflation-dominated market narratives. When growth fears prevail, stocks and bonds move inversely. Since 2022, persistent inflation volatility has been the dominant factor, causing both asset classes to suffer simultaneously from higher inflation expectations. Investors now seek safety without duration risk, favoring cash, dollars, and short-term Treasuries while selling long-duration bonds. Record U.S. deficits, rising net interest payments, and waning foreign demand (e.g., from Japan) are pressuring long-term yields, with the 30-year yield surpassing 5%. This environment places Bitcoin, as a risk asset on the far end of the risk curve, under dual pressure. Higher risk-free rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while falling equities reduce overall risk appetite. Bitcoin's performance has become highly sensitive to macro conditions such as real yields, dollar strength, and financial conditions. While its long-term thesis as a fixed-supply asset outside the sovereign credit system is strengthened by these fiscal trends, the same conditions hurt it in the short term. The return of bonds as a effective hedge requires inflation volatility to subside, growth risks to retake dominance, and the Fed to have room to ease policy. Until then, Bitcoin trades in a market where the deepest asset class no longer absorbs shocks, removing the safety floor for all risk assets, especially those that pay nothing to wait.

marsbit07/20 05:12

Opinion: The Hedging Relationship Between U.S. Treasuries and Stocks Has Broken Down, and BTC, as a Risk Asset, Is Under Dual Pressure

marsbit07/20 05:12

CPI Lowers Risk of July Rate Hike, but Expectations Remain

U.S. June CPI data, showing a 0.4% month-on-month decline in headline inflation and a cooling core rate, sharply reduced market expectations for a July Fed rate hike. This prompted a rally in Treasuries, equities, and crypto assets as near-term monetary policy pressure eased. However, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony maintained a hawkish tone, emphasizing no tolerance for persistent high inflation and refusing to signal a policy pivot based on a single month's data. The market's reaction is seen as a trade on reduced immediate hike risk rather than a confirmation of a new easing cycle. The report highlights that the positive surprise was largely driven by a significant drop in energy prices, particularly gasoline, which is volatile. The key uncertainty lies in whether this slowdown will extend to more persistent components like shelter and core services inflation. For the current asset rebound to be sustained, it will require consecutive months of data confirming a broad-based disinflationary trend. Until then, the June CPI offers a temporary respite but does not eliminate the risk of future Fed tightening.

marsbit07/15 10:30

CPI Lowers Risk of July Rate Hike, but Expectations Remain

marsbit07/15 10:30

ETFs Are Just the Ticket: The True Institutionalization of Bitcoin Is Happening Where You Can't See It

Beyond the Bitcoin ETF spotlight, a deeper institutionalization is underway, leveraging Bitcoin as a foundational financial primitive. Institutions are using Bitcoin for purposes long reserved for assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold: as collateral for loans, insurance reserves, and the backbone of rated bonds. Examples include a Barbados-based insurer capitalizing with $40M in Bitcoin reserves and Ledn's $188M securitization of Bitcoin-backed loans, which received the first-ever investment-grade rating (BBB-) from S&P for a digital asset-backed security. This structure was stress-tested during a 27% price drop in early 2026, triggering automatic liquidations that functioned as designed but revealed the systemic risk of synchronized selling across leveraged positions. Infrastructure is evolving to support this, with platforms like Anchorage Digital's Atlas network enabling secure, institutional-grade settlement and collateral management. Strategies like basis trades and corporate treasuries (exemplified by companies like MicroStrategy issuing billions in equity and debt to fund Bitcoin acquisitions) further integrate Bitcoin into financial mechanics. While ETFs solved "how to own" Bitcoin, these developments answer "what to do with it," embedding the asset into the working machinery of finance—as collateral upon which loans, derivatives, and structured products are built. The real, enduring institutional shift is happening in these largely invisible plumbing and financing systems.

marsbit06/15 03:54

ETFs Are Just the Ticket: The True Institutionalization of Bitcoin Is Happening Where You Can't See It

marsbit06/15 03:54

The Gold Buy-on-the-Dip Guide: Watch Interest Rates, Not Just War

"Gold Buying Guide: Focus on Interest Rates, Not Just War" Four months ago, gold buyers likely didn't anticipate buying at a peak that even a war couldn't sustain. After hitting a record high of $5,596 on January 29, gold entered a bear market just 91 days later, its fastest decline since 2008. A key trigger was the Fed's hawkish shift, highlighting that monetary policy, not geopolitics, is the primary driver. The article argues that the traditional "buy gold in turmoil" script has changed. While the US-Iran conflict initially boosted prices, the sustained rally in oil prices heightened inflation fears, forcing central banks to maintain or consider tighter policy. Since gold yields no interest, higher rates increase its opportunity cost, eroding its appeal. This dynamic was evident when gold fell sharply on May 18 despite positive peace talks, as lower oil prices eased inflation and thus rate hike pressures. The recent sell-off is also part of a broader market deleveraging. Correlations between gold, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin spiked as leveraged investors sold liquid assets to cover losses, creating a synchronized downturn. Historically, gold bottoms align with policy shifts, not conflict resolutions. The 2008 and 2022 bear markets ended with shifts to extreme easing and peak inflation expectations, respectively. For potential buyers, the author suggests monitoring three signals: 1) Peak interest rate hike expectations, 2) Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (to ease oil/inflation pressure), and 3) A return to net inflows for Gold ETFs, indicating the end of forced selling. While predicting the exact bottom is impossible, the author's personal strategy involves scaling into a position across price levels like $4000, $3700, and $3500, committing no more than 30% of the intended total allocation initially, and adding the remainder only if key signals emerge. The core conclusion: In turbulent times, watching interest rates is more crucial than watching wars.

marsbit06/12 04:06

The Gold Buy-on-the-Dip Guide: Watch Interest Rates, Not Just War

marsbit06/12 04:06

a16z: 7 Charts to Understand How Tokenization is Changing the Nature of Assets

"a16z: 7 Charts on How Tokenization is Changing the Nature of Assets" Tokenized Assets (or Real-World Assets - RWA) are transforming asset forms, liquidity, and financial system construction. The market recently surpassed $30 billion, stabilizing around $34 billion (excluding stablecoins), representing a tenfold increase in less than two years, driven by clearer regulations, mature institutional infrastructure, and increased financial institution adoption. The primary driver of recent growth is tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds. These offer investors efficient, flexible digital access to yield-bearing assets and improve institutional operations like settlement and collateral management. Other asset classes show varied growth: asset-backed credit leads, followed by niche financial assets (e.g., reinsurance, mining notes), while venture capital took longer to scale. Market segmentation shows high concentration. In commodities, tokenized gold dominates (~$5 billion), as its standardized, storable nature fits tokenization well. Bonds are the largest category ($15.2B), but only ~5% are used in DeFi protocols. Conversely, smaller niches like reinsurance tokens see high (~84%) on-chain utilization, highlighting a core industry divide: most current tokenized assets are merely digitized records for easier holding/transfer, lacking the "composability" (free combination/interaction) that is key to blockchain-native finance. The ecosystem is distributed across multiple blockchains, with Ethereum hosting over half the value ($15.7B), followed by BNB Chain, Solana, and others. Future market size predictions vary widely (e.g., $2-$30 trillion by 2030+), but all indicate massive potential from the current small base. Tokenized assets currently represent minuscule fractions of their global counterparts (e.g., 0.01% of global bonds). The current phase focuses on digitizing straightforward assets. The next challenge is to bring more complex financial components on-chain and deeply integrate tokenized assets into composable, internet-native financial infrastructure.

链捕手05/24 06:25

a16z: 7 Charts to Understand How Tokenization is Changing the Nature of Assets

链捕手05/24 06:25

a16z: 7 Charts to Understand How Tokenization Is Changing the Nature of Assets

a16z: 7 Charts on How Tokenization is Transforming the Nature of Assets Tokenized Assets, often referred to as "real-world assets" (RWA), are altering the form, flow, and structure of the financial system. The market recently surpassed $30 billion (excluding stablecoins), driven largely by tokenized U.S. Treasuries. These offer investors digital, yield-bearing assets with efficient settlement. Growth varies significantly by asset class. Asset-backed credit leads in speed, followed by niche financial assets, while venture capital and active strategies took longer to scale. U.S. Treasuries and commodities dominate, holding about two-thirds of the current market share. Within commodities, gold tokenization dominates entirely due to its standardization and historical appeal in crypto. The ecosystem is spread across multiple blockchains. Ethereum holds over half the market, with others like BNB Chain, Solana, and Stellar holding significant shares. However, a key insight is that most tokenized assets currently lack "composability." While the total market is large, only a small fraction (e.g., 5% of tokenized bonds) is used within DeFi protocols. Many tokens are simply digital records of off-chain assets, not natively programmable financial building blocks. In contrast, smaller categories like reinsurance tokens see very high on-chain usage. Looking ahead, forecasts for the tokenized asset market by 2030 range from $2 trillion to over $30 trillion, representing immense potential growth from today's ~$340 billion base. Yet, relative to global markets (e.g., $140T+ in bonds), tokenization's penetration remains minuscule (<0.02%). The current phase focuses on digitizing straightforward assets for efficiency. The next major challenge is bringing more complex financial instruments on-chain and integrating tokenized assets into truly composable, internet-native financial infrastructure.

marsbit05/24 04:25

a16z: 7 Charts to Understand How Tokenization Is Changing the Nature of Assets

marsbit05/24 04:25

Interview with Circle's Chief Economist: USDC's Entry into Hyperliquid Benefits Circle and HYPE, Stablecoins Are Becoming Marginal Buyers of U.S. Treasuries

In an interview with Circle's Chief Economist Gordon Liao, the conversation covers the strategic significance of USDC replacing USDH as the reference asset on the decentralized perpetual exchange Hyperliquid. This shift, facilitated by Coinbase as the reserve manager and Circle providing technical infrastructure, aims to capture net interest income for the platform, with 90% of reserve earnings directed back to Hyperliquid for HYPE token buybacks. Liao discusses how stablecoins like USDC, with their substantial on-chain settlement volumes (e.g., $21 trillion in Q1 2026), are emerging as marginal buyers of U.S. Treasuries, concentrating on short-term debt and effectively reducing the weighted duration of the market, which may provide underlying support for long-term rates. The dialogue also explores the evolving nature of stablecoins as both a medium of exchange and a vehicle for capital and collateral liquidity. Additionally, the panel touches on the CLARITY Act's legislative progress, noting compromises around "activity-based rewards" and remaining hurdles like ethics concerns. On AI, there's debate over value capture, with predictions that distribution and application layers, rather than foundational model companies like OpenAI, will accrue most value. Regarding the bond market, Liao attributes the rise in 30-year yields primarily to an increased term premium (around 80 bps) driven by supply-demand dynamics, including fiscal expansion and changing investor demand, rather than expectations of Fed rate hikes.

marsbit05/20 07:35

Interview with Circle's Chief Economist: USDC's Entry into Hyperliquid Benefits Circle and HYPE, Stablecoins Are Becoming Marginal Buyers of U.S. Treasuries

marsbit05/20 07:35

Wall Street’s Ethereum Expansion Gains Speed As Tokenized Treasuries Top $8 Billion

The market cap of tokenized U.S. Treasuries on Ethereum has reached an all-time high of approximately $8 billion, doubling in value over the past six months. This growth is driven by products from multiple institutions including BlackRock’s BUIDL, Franklin Templeton’s iBENJI, and offerings from WisdomTree, Ondo Finance, Centrifuge, and Superstate. Ethereum dominates this space, holding far more value than competitors like BNB Chain, Solana, Stellar, and the XRP Ledger. These tokenized assets are not just held as investments; they are actively used as yield-bearing collateral within decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, providing liquidity and functionality beyond traditional bonds. While this marks a significant milestone, the $8 billion total remains a small fraction of the broader $27 trillion U.S. Treasury market. Regulatory frameworks for blockchain-based securities are still under development by financial authorities.

bitcoinist05/08 03:05

Wall Street’s Ethereum Expansion Gains Speed As Tokenized Treasuries Top $8 Billion

bitcoinist05/08 03:05

Ripple’s Tokenization Bet: Will XRP Price Explode As It Enters This Trillion-Dollar Industry?

Institutional capital is quietly moving onto the XRP Ledger (XRPL), with over $333 million in tokenized US Treasury products now live from firms like BlackRock-backed Ondo Finance, OpenEden, Guggenheim, and abrdn. This marks a significant shift for XRPL, traditionally known for payments, into the tokenized real-world asset sector. While still a tiny fraction of the $30+ trillion Treasury market, XRPL's tokenized assets grew 2,200% in 2025. Experts project the global tokenization market could reach $200 trillion. If XRPL captures a notable share as this market scales, it could have significant implications for the price of XRP.

bitcoinist04/22 23:31

Ripple’s Tokenization Bet: Will XRP Price Explode As It Enters This Trillion-Dollar Industry?

bitcoinist04/22 23:31

Treasuries and yield funds – Is this the next phase of tokenization?

Tokenized finance is experiencing significant growth, with BNB Chain's tokenized asset market cap reaching a record $16.6 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. The broader tokenized funds market has expanded to $31.9 billion, driven primarily by yield-bearing products rather than simple stablecoins. While Tether and USDC remain the largest issuers, faster growth is occurring among smaller players like Ondo Finance, Maple Finance, and Centrifuge. The trend highlights a shift beyond cash proxies toward income-generating on-chain assets, signaling a new phase in asset tokenization.

ambcrypto04/10 05:05

Treasuries and yield funds – Is this the next phase of tokenization?

ambcrypto04/10 05:05

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