Will Bitcoin Go Up or Down? Technical Analysis Published

cryptonews.ruОпубліковано о 2026-09-08Востаннє оновлено о 2026-09-08

Анотація

Cryptocurrency analytics firm Glassnode reports Bitcoin continues to trade sideways around $79,100, showing mixed market signals. While the price has remained stable between $77,300–$81,300 since late August, spot momentum indicators have weakened significantly, dropping about 30%. Spot trading volume is steady at ~$3.5B, but the Cumulative Volume Delta recovered slightly, indicating only a reduction in selling pressure, not strong new buyer demand. On the derivatives side, futures open interest increased by 1% to $37.1B, and perpetual futures open interest rose 2.1% to $40.1B, suggesting growing leverage usage despite a 32.8% drop in funding payments. Options market activity shows bullish positioning, with call option demand high and implied volatility remaining low relative to realized volatility. A key positive signal is the resurgence of demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with net inflows reaching $681.2M, significantly higher than the previous $247.8M, and Assets Under Management growing 19.2% to ~$12.1B. Blockchain data indicates reduced on-chain activity, with adjusted transfer volume down 12.8% to $5.0B and transaction fees falling 4.8% to $213K. However, capital inflow remains a strong market indicator, with the monthly change in realized market cap accelerating to 0.8% and the share of "hot capital" rising to 30.1%, showing short-term, price-sensitive capital continues to enter the Bitcoin network despite price stability. *This is not investment advice.

Cryptocurrency analytics company Glassnode stated that while Bitcoin continues to move sideways around $79,100, the market is sending mixed signals. According to the company, institutional demand, capital inflows, and increased leverage in the futures market, combined with slowing growth in the spot market, are supporting Bitcoin's fragile equilibrium.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is trading around $79,100, showing an increase of approximately 0.7% over the week. Although the price has remained largely stable since late August, when it was in the range of $77,300–$81,300, there has been a noticeable weakening in spot momentum indicators. Recently, spot momentum declined by about 30%, dropping to 54.6, and the indicator has returned to the middle of statistical ranges.

While spot trading volume remained virtually unchanged at approximately $3.5 billion, the cumulative delta of spot trading volume (CVD) recovered from -$84.9 million to -$29.6 million. However, Glassnode claimed that selling pressure has not triggered strong buyer demand, and that pressure in the spot market has merely eased.

In the futures market, open interest reportedly increased by 1% to $37.1 billion. Despite a 32.8% decrease in funding payments to $1.3 million, the increase in positions indicates continued growth in leverage usage in the market. Open interest in the perpetual futures market also increased by 2.1% to $40.1 billion.

It was noted that bullish positioning was also observed in the options market. A decrease in volatility skew to -20.9% and a reduction in the delta asymmetry index from 0.79% to -2.05% indicate that implied volatility remained low compared to realized volatility, and demand for call options was high.

Glassnode also reported a resurgence in demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs. The net inflow into the funds reached $681.2 million, significantly exceeding the previous period's inflow of $247.8 million. Assets under management for ETFs also increased by 19.2% to approximately $12.1 billion.

Blockchain data showed a decline in activity. The asset-adjusted transfer volume decreased by 12.8% to $5.0 billion, and fee revenue decreased by 4.8% to $213,000. The number of active addresses remained relatively stable at around 635,000.

Glassnode noted that capital inflow continues to be one of the strongest market indicators, reporting that the monthly change in realized market cap accelerated to 0.8%, and the share of 'hot capital' increased to 30.1%. In the company's view, this indicates that short-term, price-sensitive capital continues to flow into the Bitcoin network, despite the price remaining stable.

*This is not investment advice.

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QWhat is the main contradiction in Bitcoin's market signals according to Glassnode's technical analysis?

AThe main contradiction is between the weakening momentum on the spot market and the continued institutional demand and increase in leverage on the futures market, which creates a fragile balance.

QWhat happened to the open interest in Bitcoin futures markets, and what does this indicate?

AOpen interest in Bitcoin futures reportedly increased by 1% to $37.1 billion, and perpetual futures open interest rose by 2.1% to $40.1 billion. This indicates a continued growth in the use of leverage in the market.

QHow has the demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs changed recently according to the report?

ADemand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw renewed growth. The net inflow of funds reached $681.2 million, a significant increase from the previous period's $247.8 million inflow, and assets under management increased by 19.2% to approximately $12.1 billion.

QWhat did the data on blockchain activity (adjusted transfer volume, fees, active addresses) show in the report?

AThe data showed a decline in blockchain activity. Asset-adjusted transfer volume fell by 12.8% to $5.0 billion, transaction fees decreased by 4.8% to $213,000, while the number of active addresses remained relatively stable at around 635,000.

QWhat do the trends in 'hot capital' and realized market capitalization change suggest about the market, according to Glassnode?

AThe monthly change in realized market capitalization accelerated to 0.8% and the share of 'hot capital' rose to 30.1%. This suggests that short-term, price-sensitive capital continues to flow into the Bitcoin network even as the price remains stable.

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