赚了 60 倍的 AI 股神，用 77 亿美金押注英伟达见顶

链捕手Опубліковано о 2026-05-20Востаннє оновлено о 2026-05-20

Анотація

一支名为Situational Awareness LP的基金在2026年第一季度提交了13F文件，其美股及期权名义敞口激增148%，达到136.77亿美元。市场关注焦点在于，其超过60%的新增敞口集中押注于芯片板块的看跌期权，涉及VanEck半导体ETF（SMH）、英伟达、博通、AMD等九大标的，其中SMH和英伟达的看跌期权规模最大，分别为20.4亿和15.6亿美元。文章指出，这并非单纯看空AI，而是基于一个关键判断：AI发展的核心瓶颈正从GPU短缺转向电力、土地和数据中心建设能力等物理基础设施约束。美国电网接入申请积压严重，平均等待超五年，这些现实瓶颈将制约算力集群的扩张速度。因此，该基金的操作逻辑是：对冲芯片股可能因估值过高而回调的风险（通过看跌期权），同时继续加码押注真正构成瓶颈的下游基础设施，如算力服务商CoreWeave、转型的比特币矿企以及Bloom Energy等。该基金由一位24岁德国人创立，其投资理念源于他早前发布的一份关于AGI与基础设施瓶颈的研报。此次仓位调整，将“AI扩张受制于物理基础设施”这一叙事落实为了具体的投资组合。

作者:哔哔 News

2026年5月18日,Situational Awareness LP提交了2026年第一季度13F文件。

这家基金的美股及期权名义敞口,从2025年底的55.2亿美元扩张到136.77亿美元,单季增长148%。

但引发市场关注的,不是规模,而是结构:超过60%的新增名义敞口,全部压在了芯片板块的看跌期权上。

Q1 做了什么

看跌期权覆盖九个标的:VanEck半导体ETF(SMH)、英伟达、博通、甲骨文、AMD、美光、台积电、ASML、英特尔。

其中SMH的PUT名义规模最大,达20.4亿美元,英伟达紧随其后,15.6亿美元。美光和台积电同时持有看涨和看跌期权,是双向押注波动而非单边做空。

需要说明的是,13F文件只披露期权的名义价值,无法直接判断净空头规模。这批PUT仓位可能是主动做空,也可能是在持有多头的同时买入对冲保护。

单靠文件,无法还原完整意图。

正股方向上,基金继续加码算力基础设施。

CoreWeave持股从610万股增至718万股;IREN和Applied Digital同步增持;

矿企方向扩张最明显,Bitfarms(现更名为Keel Infrastructure)从690万股增至1988万股,CleanSpark从164万股增至1228万股,Riot Platforms从617万股增至1150万股。

Bloom Energy减持了359万股,但仍持有约8.79亿美元市值,同时保留40.85万份看涨期权。这是获利了结,不是改变方向。

退出动作则集中在光通信方向。

Lumentum和Coherent被完全清仓,上个季度Lumentum仓位占比还高达8.68%,本季度归零。

英特尔的操作值得单独注意:上季度持有约2000万份看涨期权,本季度全部清仓,同时新建了看跌期权仓位。

不是平仓,是方向完全反转,从看多变成看空。

瓶颈在哪里,钱就在哪里

这份13F背后的逻辑,是一个具体的供需判断:AI扩张的约束条件正在迁移。

过去两年,制约AI规模的核心矛盾是GPU短缺,市场于是持续交易英伟达、HBM内存、先进制程和光通信。这个阶段,芯片板块整体获得了大幅溢价。

但随着算力集群规模冲向十万卡甚至百万卡,新的约束正在浮现。

电网接入申请在美国目前积压超过2TW,平均等待周期超过五年;变压器产能有限,新建数据中心的建设周期以年计算;芯片可以持续扩产,但支撑芯片运转所需的电力、土地和建设能力,无法同步跟上。

在这个判断下,做空芯片板块的逻辑不是认为AI会失败,而是认为芯片端的估值已经提前反映了预期,价值正在向更下游的物理基础设施迁移。

买入SMH和英伟达的PUT,是对冲芯片端可能的估值回调;继续持有CoreWeave、矿企转型标的、Bloom Energy,是押注真正形成瓶颈的电力和机房容量。

CoreWeave的操作也印证了这个思路:看涨期权从1081万份砍至181万份,同时普通股从610万股增至718万股。

方向没变,只是把高杠杆的期权仓位换成了正股,降低波动对组合的冲击。

从 2.25 亿到 136.77 亿

这家基金2024年9月创办,首份13F披露的美股暴露约2.25亿美元。到2025年底,这个数字增长到了55.2亿美元;截至2026年3月31日,名义敞口达到了136.77亿美元。

2025年上半年,基金实现回报约47%,同期标普500涨幅才约6%,全年跑赢标普500约12.5个百分点。

创办基金之前,这位24岁的德国人发表了165页《Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead》,阐述了AGI时间线、电力和计算基础设施将会成为最大瓶颈的判断。基金的早期资金来自Nat Friedman、Daniel Gross,以及Stripe联创Patrick与John Collison。

这份季报的意义在于,它把一个此前更多停留在叙事层面的判断,落实成了具体的仓位结构。

芯片只是扩张的入口,真正决定AI扩张速度的,是现实世界里能不能接上电、能不能建好机房、能不能在五年内拿到电网接入批复。

如果这个判断成立,过去两年AI投资的关键词是GPU和模型;接下来几年,可能是电力、土地和建设时间。

Пов'язані питання

QSituational Awareness LP 基金在2026年第一季度对其投资组合做出了哪些主要调整？

A该基金在2026年第一季度大幅增加了其美股及期权的名义敞口，主要变化包括：新建立了规模庞大的半导体板块看跌期权（PUT）仓位，涉及SMH ETF、英伟达、博通等多个芯片标的；继续增持算力基础设施公司（如CoreWeave）和转型的比特币矿企（如Keel Infrastructure）；同时，清仓了光通信领域的Lumentum和Coherent，并将英特尔的仓位从看涨期权完全转为看跌期权。

Q为什么Situational Awareness LP基金要大规模押注芯片板块的看跌期权？其背后的核心投资逻辑是什么？

A该基金的核心逻辑认为，AI发展的瓶颈已经从早期的GPU短缺，转移到物理基础设施（如电力、土地、机房建设）的制约。随着算力集群规模急剧扩大，电网接入、变压器产能和数据中心建设周期等成为新的约束，这可能导致芯片端（如英伟达）的估值已过度反映增长预期，存在回调风险。因此，买入看跌期权是为了对冲芯片股的估值回调，并将投资重心转向更下游、真正形成瓶颈的物理基础设施。

Q在基金的操作中，对于CoreWeave的仓位调整传递了什么信号？

A对于CoreWeave，基金的操作传递了“方向不变但降低风险”的信号。具体表现为：大幅削减了高杠杆的看涨期权仓位（从1081万份降至181万份），同时增持了普通股（从610万股增至718万股）。这表明基金依然看好这家算力基础设施提供商的前景，但选择将部分仓位从波动性更大的期权转为更稳定的正股，以降低投资组合的整体波动和杠杆风险。

Q文章中提到AI扩张的约束条件正在迁移，具体指什么？

A约束条件的迁移指的是：过去两年，制约AI发展的核心矛盾是GPU（芯片）的供应短缺。而现在及未来，随着万卡、十万卡级别的超大规模算力集群成为目标，新的约束将主要是现实世界中的物理基础设施瓶颈。这包括：美国的电网接入申请积压超过2太瓦（TW），平均等待周期超过五年；变压器等关键设备产能有限；数据中心的土地、审批和建设周期漫长。芯片可以扩产，但支撑其运行的电力、土地和建设能力无法同步跟上。

QSituational Awareness LP基金的创立者和早期投资人有何背景？

A该基金的创立者是一位24岁的德国人。在创办基金前，他发表了一份长达165页、题为《Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead》的研究报告，系统阐述了对AGI时间线以及电力和计算基础设施将成为最大瓶颈的判断。基金的早期资金来自科技界的知名人士，包括Nat Friedman（前GitHub CEO）、Daniel Gross（创业者和投资者），以及支付巨头Stripe的联合创始人Patrick Collison和John Collison兄弟。

Пов'язані матеріали

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Bleed $1.26 Billion In Largest Net Outflows In 3 Months – Details

US Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw $1.26 billion in net outflows last week, marking the largest withdrawal since late January. The sector experienced six consecutive days of negative flows, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for over $1 billion in net outflows. Overall, May has seen $1 billion leave these ETFs. Ethereum Spot ETFs also extended their outflow streak to 10 days, losing $215.19 million last week. Despite the capital flight, Bitcoin's price rose 1.75% to $76,735, while Ethereum increased 2.78% to $2,119 at the time of reporting.

bitcoinist3 год тому

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Bleed $1.26 Billion In Largest Net Outflows In 3 Months – Details

bitcoinist3 год тому

DeepSeek Announces Permanent Price Cut, But Liang Wenfeng Is Not Trying to Be a "Cyber Bodhisattva"

DeepSeek has announced a permanent 75% discount on its V4-Pro API, significantly reducing its token prices. This move stands out as a major industry-wide price cut while competitors like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have been quietly raising theirs. The article contrasts this strategy with the broader trend of AI becoming more expensive, citing examples of companies like Microsoft and Uber struggling with high token costs as usage soars. While CEO Liang Wenfeng is hailed by some as a "Cyber Bodhisattva" for this普惠 approach, the article argues this is a strategic business choice, not mere altruism. DeepSeek's ability to maintain low prices is attributed to several structural advantages: lower-cost AI talent in China, the impending use of domestic昇腾 hardware for further cost reductions, and, most critically, access to China's cheaper and more abundant energy infrastructure, which drastically reduces the electricity costs dominating AI operations. The analysis suggests that for many commercial applications, a "good enough" model that is radically cheaper (e.g., 1% to 11% of GPT-5.5's cost) is more valuable than the absolute top-tier model. This allows for vastly more experimentation and iteration within a budget. Therefore, as AI generally becomes more expensive, DeepSeek's cost-competitiveness—rooted in China's energy and talent advantages—becomes its core strategic value and differentiator in the global market.

marsbit7 год тому

DeepSeek Announces Permanent Price Cut, But Liang Wenfeng Is Not Trying to Be a "Cyber Bodhisattva"

marsbit7 год тому

Everyone Is Calling For Lower Bitcoin Price: Why This Is The Perfect Time To Go Parabolic

Crypto analyst Crypto Fergani argues that despite widespread bearish sentiment and calls for lower targets following Bitcoin's recent volatility, conditions are actually ripe for a parabolic surge. He points to major institutional accumulation and growing adoption as bullish fundamentals, dismissing the idea of an ongoing bear market. Comparing the current cycle to 2022, he predicts Bitcoin could rally over 72% from current levels above $74,000 toward $128,000, with altcoins potentially seeing massive gains. This contrasts with other analysts like Bee, who foresee a deeper correction toward $47,000-$52,000 as the final bottom before a new bull cycle begins.

bitcoinist8 год тому

Everyone Is Calling For Lower Bitcoin Price: Why This Is The Perfect Time To Go Parabolic

bitcoinist8 год тому

The Veil of Mythos Becomes Anthropic's Lever to Move Trillions

The article discusses Anthropic's reported upcoming $30 billion funding round, which would value the company at over $900 billion. It analyzes how the company has leveraged strategic narratives around its unreleased "Mythos" model, rather than just its publicly available products, to drive this massive valuation. Key points include Google's surprising $40 billion investment in a competitor, suggesting it is buying strategic positioning. Anthropic's "Glasswing" cybersecurity project and the unreleased Mythos model are portrayed not through direct proof, but through carefully crafted narratives of being "too powerful for public release," creating an aura of exclusive, high-level capability. This is bolstered by reports of the White House and NSA seeking access to Claude/Mythos despite previous security concerns, implying indispensable technology. Furthermore, Anthropic's reported rapid revenue growth—from a $1 billion annual run-rate in late 2024 to over $30 billion by April 2026, largely driven by enterprise API and Claude Code—provides a financial story for investors. The article concludes that Anthropic's core business model is effectively converting unverifiable technical potential, government interest, and future revenue projections into a compelling narrative that secures immense capital, using the actions of wealthy investors and powerful institutions as the ultimate validation of its worth.

marsbit9 год тому

The Veil of Mythos Becomes Anthropic's Lever to Move Trillions

marsbit9 год тому

Stablecoin Regulation: FDIC Announces New Proposed AML Rules For Issuers

The FDIC has proposed new rules to extend Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and economic sanctions compliance standards to FDIC-supervised Permitted Payment Stablecoin Issuers (PPSIs). This would formally classify PPSIs as financial institutions, requiring them to implement full Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) programs, OFAC-aligned sanctions compliance structures, and related reporting obligations. The proposal follows earlier prudential standards for PPSIs. Supervision would involve FDIC coordination with FinCEN, with enforcement shielded for entities with effective programs unless significant failures occur. The public comment period lasts until June 9, 2026, with a final rule expected later that year. The FDIC estimates 5-30 PPSIs may seek approval initially, with compliance costs likely modest due to leveraging parent companies' existing infrastructure.

bitcoinist9 год тому

Stablecoin Regulation: FDIC Announces New Proposed AML Rules For Issuers

bitcoinist9 год тому

Торгівля

Спот

Ф'ючерси

Обговорення

Ласкаво просимо до спільноти HTX. Тут ви можете бути в курсі останніх подій розвитку платформи та отримати доступ до професійної ринкової інформації. Нижче представлені думки користувачів щодо ціни GENIUS (GENIUS).