In its new report published in mid-August, VanEck noted that the capitulation process on the Bitcoin market may have reached an advanced stage. According to the report provided by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, 8 out of the 12 tracked capitulation indicators are currently active. The company added that current data suggests Bitcoin may be in the process of forming a bottom, but data from past periods does not offer a substantial advantage, particularly in terms of short-term returns.
On August 11th, Bitcoin closed at $63,549, down just 0.3% compared to the previous month. At the same time, the average price over 30 days rose to approximately $64,322. Over the past month, Bitcoin traded in a very narrow range from $62,265 to $66,509, and its 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2% on an annualized basis. VanEck noted that Bitcoin's long-term average realized volatility is around 80%, indicating an unusually low current level.
According to the report, the stability of price movement suggests that the downtrend that continued throughout the spring may have ceased. VanEck suggests Bitcoin may have formed a potential bottom around $58,500 on June 30th. Currently, $BTC is trading about 9 percent below its 200-day moving average, which is around $69,884. A month ago, this gap was 14 percent. Bitcoin is also trading about 49 percent below its all-time high.
Money Has Started Flowing Back into Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to VanEck's data, the United States has seen a net inflow of approximately $663 million into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products over the past 30 days. This amount corresponds to roughly 10,400 $BTC at current prices.
This pattern sharply contrasts with the previous month. Over the prior 30 days, there was a net outflow from spot Bitcoin assets of approximately 40,010 $BTC, or about $2.4 billion.
However, spot Bitcoin trading volumes remain fairly low. The total volume over the last 30 days decreased by 27 percent compared to the previous month, placing it only in the 10th percentile of the historical distribution. According to VanEck, spot trading volumes in the summer of 2026 have fallen to levels seen during the 2023 bear market.
Nevertheless, the company views Bitcoin's resilience in the face of strong macroeconomic and geopolitical pressure as a partially positive factor. The report noted factors such as long-term interest rates rising to levels not seen since 2007 and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
VanEck: 8 out of 12 Capitulation Signals Are Active.
The most striking part of the report was the Bitcoin capitulation indicators developed by VanEck. All 12 indicators tracked by the company have entered the capitulation zone at least once in the last three months, and 8 of them remain active.
VanEck uses a different methodology for its price decline indicator compared to other metrics. A Bitcoin drop of 35% or more from its peak is considered sufficient for the indicator to be considered active. The company stated that if this criterion were not used, the number of active signals would be 7 instead of 8.
VanEck explained that in previous Bitcoin bear markets, the peak-to-trough decline ranged from 78% to 94%, but it expects the trough in the current cycle to be shallower. Reasons for this include demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, a broader base of institutional investors, and the absence of large-scale financial collapses like those seen in previous cycles, such as the collapses of Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX.
VanEck noted that Bitcoin has been in a decline period for about 10 months since its peak in October 2025, pointing out that in past cycles, it took an average of 11 months to reach the maximum level of decline from the peak. Excluding the 2011 cycle, the average over the last three cycles rises to about 12.7 months. This historical pattern suggests that a potential bottom could form between September and November 2026.
However, the company emphasized that this range should be considered, rather than attempting to predict a single date for the low.
Short-Term Returns After Capitulation Have Been Modest.
VanEck also analyzed the historical behavior of capitulation signals. In periods where 8 to 12 indicators were simultaneously active, Bitcoin's average return over 90 days was 12.8%, and over 180 days, it was 32%.
At the same time, the overall historical average for Bitcoin over the same periods is 15.2% and 36.3%, respectively.
In other words, intense capitulation signals have historically not led to market outperformance over three- and six-month periods. However, over a year, buying Bitcoin during capitulation periods has been observed to outperform the overall Bitcoin trend.
VanEck cautioned that this result is also based on a small dataset with significant overlap.
The report stated: "We may have witnessed a Bitcoin price change process that can be considered capitulation. We may be approaching the accumulation phase or already be in it."
Bitcoin Options Investors Shift to Hedging.
A defensive stance has also been observed in the Bitcoin options market. The total options premium increased by 21 percent month-over-month, reaching $789.3 million.
Almost all of the growth came from put options, used to hedge against downside risks. Premiums paid for put options rose 42 percent to $551.8 million, while call option premiums fell 10 percent to $237.6 million.
Thus, the put/call premium ratio rose to 2.30, reaching the 99th percentile of metrics tracked by VanEck since 2021. The historical average is only 0.71.
In contrast, open interest data presented a different picture. While the total options open interest remained at approximately $29.9 billion, open interest for call options increased by 5 percent to $19.1 billion. Open interest for put options, on the other hand, decreased by 11.5 percent to $10.8 billion.
The implied volatility of one-month call options remained at 32.7 percent, close to the lowest level since 2021.
Forced Liquidations in Futures Contracts Have Decreased.
Funding rates in the Bitcoin perpetual futures market have returned to positive territory. The one-month annualized funding rate was 4.7%, down from 3.8% last week. This level is significantly below the long-term average of approximately 8.4%.
Open interest for perpetual futures contracts increased 4.5 percent month-over-month, reaching approximately $30.7 billion.
Liquidation volumes have slowed significantly. Approximately $510 million in long positions and $470 million in short positions were liquidated. VanEck noted that forced selling volume has dropped to its lowest level in recent months.
Long-Term Bitcoin Investors Moved 356,000 $BTC.
Another significant event noted in the report came from long-term Bitcoin investors. The amount of Bitcoin that had not moved for more than a year decreased by approximately 356,000 $BTC over the past 30 days, falling to 11.84 million $BTC. The decline was 2.9 percent.
The largest decline occurred in the segment of Bitcoin held for 1 to 2 years. Supply in this group decreased by approximately 156,000 $BTC, while in the group held for 2-3 years, the decline was 76,000 $BTC, and in the group held for 3-5 years, it was approximately 62,000 $BTC.
In contrast, the amount of Bitcoin that had not changed for over 10 years decreased by only about 4,000 $BTC.
As a result, the share of Bitcoin in circulation that had not been used for more than a year fell to 59.1% of the total supply. Thus, the share of long-term investors in the supply fell below 60% for the first time in several months.
VanEck added that while increased activity of older coins can typically be interpreted negatively from a seller pressure perspective, not all transfers mean Bitcoin is being sent to exchanges for sale.
*This is not investment advice.
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