# Prediction Markets İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Prediction Markets" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

How to Understand the CFTC's Regulation of Prediction Markets?

On October 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released two conflicting documents concerning event contracts in prediction markets. A proposal seeks to classify contracts on sports, politics, and other events as "swaps" under CFTC jurisdiction, while a separate interim rule explicitly excludes licensed sports betting and casino games from the swap definition. This creates a regulatory split where bets on the same NFL game could be regulated as state-level gambling if placed at a Las Vegas sportsbook, but as a federally regulated swap if traded on a CFTC-registered exchange like Kalshi. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig argues these event contracts are commodity derivatives for hedging, speculation, and price discovery. However, the move faces legal challenges. The NFL and 39 states oppose the CFTC's stance, arguing these contracts create new gambling risks rather than hedging existing ones. Federal appeals courts are divided: the Third Circuit ruled such contracts are swaps, while the Sixth and Ninth Circuits concluded they are not. This circuit split has prompted New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court for review. The proposed rules are not yet in effect, pending publication and a comment period. The ultimate outcome hinges on court decisions and the future composition of the CFTC commission. The core conflict remains whether event contracts on prediction markets fall under federal derivatives regulation or state gambling laws.

marsbit3 saat önce

How to Understand the CFTC's Regulation of Prediction Markets?

marsbit3 saat önce

Who Regulates Sports Prediction Markets? 39 States Take Action, CFTC Seeks to Clearly Define Them as Swaps

In the U.S., a significant legal and regulatory battle is unfolding over the classification and jurisdiction of sports-based prediction markets. Multiple parties, including former Senator Chris Dodd, former CFTC/SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the NFL, and 39 states, have filed amicus briefs with the Supreme Court. They largely argue these markets constitute gambling under state law and should not be regulated as "swaps" by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This follows a split among federal appeals courts on the issue. Simultaneously, the CFTC has advanced its own proposals, including an interim final rule, to explicitly classify contracts based on sports, political, cultural, and weather events as swaps under its jurisdiction. Prediction market platform Kalshi has had its deadline to respond to the Supreme Court extended to November 9, 2026. The core conflict centers on whether federal derivatives regulation under the Dodd-Frank Act preempts traditional state authority over gambling.

marsbit19 saat önce

Who Regulates Sports Prediction Markets? 39 States Take Action, CFTC Seeks to Clearly Define Them as Swaps

marsbit19 saat önce

How to Understand CFTC's Regulation of Prediction Markets

On October 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released two documents with opposing directions. One proposal seeks to include contracts on events like sports, politics, culture, and weather—common in prediction markets—within the definition of a "swap." Simultaneously, an interim final rule explicitly excludes licensed sports betting and casino games from the swap definition. The core issue is regulatory jurisdiction: if a contract is classified as a swap, it falls under exclusive federal CFTC oversight, preempting state gambling laws and taxes. This creates a split where bets on the same NFL event could be regulated as state-licensed gambling if placed at a Las Vegas sportsbook, but as a CFTC-regulated swap if traded on a federally registered exchange like Kalshi. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig asserts that event contracts for hedging, speculation, or information are commodity derivatives under CFTC jurisdiction, while casino-style products are not. The move comes as trading volume for event contracts, particularly in sports, has surged, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket reporting billions in weekend volume. The interim rule aims to shield licensed casinos from federal illegality claims in ongoing court battles. However, federal appellate courts are divided: the Third Circuit ruled such contracts are swaps, while the Sixth and Ninth Circuits disagreed. This "circuit split" has prompted New Jersey to petition the Supreme Court for review, supported by the NFL and 39 states. Both CFTC documents are not yet in effect, pending publication and public comment. The ultimate outcome hinges on future court rulings and the composition of the CFTC commission, which currently operates with only one seated member. Major prediction market platforms have remained publicly silent on the developments.

marsbit19 saat önce

How to Understand CFTC's Regulation of Prediction Markets

marsbit19 saat önce

CFTC Draws the Line Between Prediction Markets and Gambling

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed formally classifying event contracts—based on outcomes in sports, politics, or weather—as swaps, aiming to clarify their regulatory status. Simultaneously, the CFTC issued a rule stating that casino-style games and sports betting are not swaps and fall under state jurisdiction. This delineation is central to an ongoing jurisdictional dispute, as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket would be overseen by the CFTC rather than state gambling regulators. Several states have sued prediction market operators, alleging they run illegal gambling operations. In related news, Kalshi is investigating suspicious trades, including bets placed on the appointment of a new White House press secretary before the news became public. This follows past insider trading cases on the platform, leading to fines and heightened scrutiny from both the CFTC and lawmakers. The platform has increased its internal monitoring and reporting to authorities. The CFTC's proposals, sent to the White House for review, could ultimately be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

cryptonews.ruDün 16:22

CFTC Draws the Line Between Prediction Markets and Gambling

cryptonews.ruDün 16:22

CFTC proposals aimed at separating prediction markets from casino gambling

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued two proposals to clarify the regulatory status of prediction markets and casino gambling. The first proposal defines event contracts tied to sports, politics, cultural events, and weather as "swaps" under federal law, asserting CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over these financial instruments. The second proposal explicitly excludes traditional casino gambling, including sportsbooks and casino games, from the "swap" definition, stating these are not derivatives and fall under state regulation. These measures, open for 30-day comments, aim to resolve ambiguity and set the stage for a potential Supreme Court battle over federal versus state jurisdiction. This follows ongoing legal conflicts where states have sued prediction-market operators like Kalshi for illegal gambling, while the CFTC defends its federal oversight. Recent court rulings have been mixed, with one appeals court siding with states and another allowing Kalshi to operate during its appeal, increasing the likelihood of a Supreme Court review to settle the jurisdictional dispute.

cointelegraphDün 07:56

CFTC proposals aimed at separating prediction markets from casino gambling

cointelegraphDün 07:56

Blockchain.com seeks CFTC approval for prediction markets — CNBC

Blockchain.com has reportedly filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for approval to operate in the prediction market and cryptocurrency derivatives sectors. According to CNBC, the exchange is seeking two CFTC licenses: one as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) to function as a futures exchange for event contracts, and another as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) to act as a broker for derivative contracts. These licenses would allow Blockchain.com to offer its own event contract platform and derivative brokerage services to both retail and institutional investors in the U.S. This move follows the company's announcement in July of a partnership with prediction market platform Polymarket, but securing CFTC approval would enable Blockchain.com to independently operate its own prediction market.

cryptonews.ru10/09 19:31

Blockchain.com seeks CFTC approval for prediction markets — CNBC

cryptonews.ru10/09 19:31

Blockchain.com pursues CFTC approval for prediction markets: CNBC

Blockchain.com has filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to obtain licenses for operating prediction markets and offering crypto derivatives to retail and institutional investors. The licenses, as a designated contract market (DCM) and futures commission merchant (FCM), would permit the exchange to run its own event contract marketplace and act as a derivatives broker, respectively. This follows a July announcement of a planned partnership with prediction market platform Polymarket. The move comes amid ongoing legal disputes over the oversight of prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with several states challenging them for allegedly violating laws against betting on events like sports and elections. In parallel, CFTC Chair Michael Selig is advocating for the agency's regulatory role in crypto, citing the collapse of FTX as justification for new rules to protect customer funds. He asserts the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. Additionally, Blockchain.com is reportedly considering an initial public offering with a potential valuation of up to $6 billion.

cointelegraph10/09 16:30

Blockchain.com pursues CFTC approval for prediction markets: CNBC

cointelegraph10/09 16:30

NFL backs New Jersey authorities in SCOTUS petition over Kalshi

The National Football League (NFL) has filed an amicus brief with the US Supreme Court, largely supporting a petition from New Jersey officials. The petition asks the Court to review a case against the prediction markets platform Kalshi, which centers on whether state or federal agencies have jurisdiction over such platforms. The NFL argues that many sports-event contracts on these platforms are "swaps" highly susceptible to manipulation, posing significant threats to game integrity and consumer protection. It also contends that federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) lacks adequate safeguards. Separately, 39 U.S. states and the District of Columbia filed a supporting brief, warning of a "national turf war" between the CFTC and states that requires Supreme Court clarification. Kalshi has until November 9 to respond to the jurisdictional issues raised. The Supreme Court has not yet decided whether to hear the case.

cointelegraph10/08 19:25

NFL backs New Jersey authorities in SCOTUS petition over Kalshi

cointelegraph10/08 19:25

Kalshi’s 15-min gold markets overtake Ether just weeks after launch

Kalshi's newly launched 15-minute gold prediction markets, which began trading in August, overtook equivalent Ether markets in September by generating nearly double the estimated trading fees—$5 million versus $2.6 million. With 542 million gold contracts traded that month, gold surpassed Ether's 318 million contracts to become a major non-sports market on the platform, though Bitcoin remained dominant with $60.4 million in fees. This growth highlights the rapid expansion of Kalshi's commodities business, which reached $400 million in volume within seven months. Short-duration markets (15-minute intervals for crypto, commodities, and financials) are becoming increasingly significant, accounting for 80% of non-sport fees in early October. These markets also generate disproportionately higher fees relative to their trading volume due to Kalshi's fee structure.

cointelegraph10/07 11:16

Kalshi’s 15-min gold markets overtake Ether just weeks after launch

cointelegraph10/07 11:16

Galaxy Research Report: 1.27 Billion Transactions Reveal the Truth About Polymarket Retail Investor Profits and Losses

**Galaxy Report: Analysis of 1.27 Billion Trades Reveals Retail Trader Profits & Losses on Polymarket** A Galaxy Research study analyzing 1.27 billion on-chain trades from 2.9 million "retail" accounts on Polymarket's international platform found that 69.2% ended with a net loss, collectively losing $338.9 million. Key findings include: * **Behavioral Patterns:** Losses increase user churn; 15.2% of accounts did not trade again within 30 days after a loss, compared to 6.1% after a profit. After controlling for trade price, traders who profit are more likely to increase their next bet size than those who lose. * **Specialization vs. Diversification:** 44.1% of traders focused over 60% of their activity in one market category. Specialized traders in Sports—the largest category—performed worst (25.1% profitable). Specialized traders in Technology & Science performed best (41.2% profitable), suggesting possible informational advantages. * **Profitable vs. Unprofitable Traders:** Profitable traders had a higher median bet size ($13.96 vs. $10.00). No clear relationship was found between holding period and profitability. * **Automated Accounts:** A separate group of ~125k high-frequency "automated" accounts was identified, contributing 80.8% of all orders and netting a $246.8 million profit. The report notes that most retail losses are small (median loss ~$3), and such "noise trading" may be necessary for prediction markets to aggregate information effectively. It contrasts Polymarket's transparent, on-chain settlement—which allows external verification—with the opacity of some competing platforms.

marsbit10/07 00:11

Galaxy Research Report: 1.27 Billion Transactions Reveal the Truth About Polymarket Retail Investor Profits and Losses

marsbit10/07 00:11

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