# Deficit İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Deficit" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Global Long-Term Bonds Break Down: The Fiscal Illusion of the Low-Interest Era is Collapsing

Global long-term bonds are experiencing a widespread breakdown, as the fiscal illusion of the low-interest-rate era collapses. Sovereign yields are hitting multi-year highs in the US, UK, Japan, and France, signaling a market repricing driven by a common reality: unsustainable debt and deficits outpacing economic growth, compounded by renewed inflationary pressures from energy shocks. The direct trigger is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation fears. This squeezes central bank policy space, with expectations shifting from future rate cuts to potential hikes. The core "fiscal Ponzi scheme" is becoming evident—governments rely on new debt to service existing obligations, but as growth lags and borrowing costs rise, investors demand higher yields. Key developments include the US 30-year yield surpassing 5% for the first time since 2007, with tepid auction demand; Japan's 30-year yield reaching 4%, threatening its long-standing low-rate financial system; and political paralysis in the UK and France making meaningful fiscal consolidation unlikely. The marginal buyer for US debt is also shifting from foreign central banks to more price-sensitive private investors. While debt managers may adjust issuance, fundamental drivers—deteriorating fiscal paths, persistent inflation, and constrained central banks—remain. The market is conclusively repricing the end of the low-interest-rate financing model for highly indebted developed economies.

marsbit05/19 09:01

Global Long-Term Bonds Break Down: The Fiscal Illusion of the Low-Interest Era is Collapsing

marsbit05/19 09:01

Forbes: The $39 Trillion US Debt 'Crisis' May Trigger A Bitcoin Surge

Forbes: U.S. Debt 'Crisis' Could Trigger Bitcoin Surge The article discusses warnings from prominent financial figures about the precarious state of the U.S. dollar and national debt, and how this could benefit assets like Bitcoin. Hedge fund founder Ray Dalio warns the U.S. is spending 40% more than it earns, with debt at six times income, a historically problematic situation that devalues fiat currencies and lifts gold. Analysts note the U.S. is paying hundreds of billions in net interest on its $39 trillion debt, risking a "debt spiral." Concurrently, JPMorgan analysts suggest a shift in the "debasement trade" from gold to Bitcoin, noting Bitcoin ETF inflows have surpassed those of gold ETFs, especially following the Iran conflict. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller predicts the dollar may not remain the world's reserve currency in 50 years, potentially replaced by "some crypto thing." Elon Musk's warnings about a post-fiat era and Janet Yellen's concerns about potential "hyperinflation" under a Trump presidency are also cited as factors that could ignite Bitcoin's price. The piece positions Bitcoin, with its capped supply, as a potential digital gold and hedge against fiscal instability and currency debasement.

marsbit05/14 00:04

Forbes: The $39 Trillion US Debt 'Crisis' May Trigger A Bitcoin Surge

marsbit05/14 00:04

福布斯：美国39万亿美元债务「危机」或将引发比特币暴涨

Forbes: U.S. $39 Trillion Debt "Crisis" Could Trigger Bitcoin Surge The article discusses warnings from financial figures like Ray Dalio and analysts at JPMorgan about the potential collapse of the U.S. dollar due to unsustainable debt and deficits. This scenario is seen as potentially driving a massive shift of capital from traditional safe havens like gold into Bitcoin. Key points include the U.S. spending $7 trillion annually against $5 trillion in revenue, leading to a debt-to-income ratio of six times; net interest payments on the national debt reaching $628 billion this year; and predictions that the dollar may lose its reserve currency status within 50 years. The piece highlights Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict, noting its 30% surge and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs outpacing those for gold ETFs. Figures like Stanley Druckenmiller and Elon Musk are cited for their critical views on the dollar's future and their speculative support for cryptocurrencies.

marsbit05/13 08:12

福布斯：美国39万亿美元债务「危机」或将引发比特币暴涨

marsbit05/13 08:12

The History of U.S. Stocks is, Behind It, a History of American Wars

The article argues that the history of the U.S. stock market is deeply intertwined with American military conflicts. While current Middle East tensions raise economic concerns, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue hitting new highs. Historical analysis shows U.S. wars, from the Spanish-American War to recent conflicts in the Middle East, have often coincided with market gains, as seen in the Dow Jones's performance during these periods. The U.S. transitioned from a war participant to an initiator, with most conflicts post-Vietnam being short, focused on oil, and achieving strategic goals. The market's reaction to war has evolved. Pre-1950s, investor sentiment directly drove swings based on battle outcomes. From the Korean War onward, the focus shifted to economic channels like inflation, oil prices, and fiscal policy. For instance, during the Gulf War, stock movements inversely correlated with oil price swings. The primary beneficiary industries have also changed: coal dominated WWII, oil surged during Korea and Vietnam, but by the Gulf War, the indirect economic impact made consumer staples outperform. Overall, as the U.S. economy grew, the direct market impact of individual wars diminished, giving way to broader macroeconomic factors like interest rates and deficits as the key drivers.

marsbit05/08 08:29

The History of U.S. Stocks is, Behind It, a History of American Wars

marsbit05/08 08:29

US-Iran War: Why Did Turkey Sell Off 58.4 Tons of Gold in Two Weeks?

Turkish Central Bank sold approximately 58.4 tons of gold, worth over $8 billion, within two weeks in March 2026, as a response to a severe financial crisis triggered by the U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran. The conflict led to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge over 40% and cutting off natural gas supplies to Turkey, which relies heavily on energy imports. This resulted in a plunging Turkish lira, massive foreign capital flight, and rapid depletion of foreign reserves. To defend the currency and meet urgent dollar demands, Turkey utilized gold swaps—temporarily exchanging gold for dollars with agreements to repurchase later—rather than outright sales, to avoid market panic and preserve long-term reserves. The move highlights Turkey's vulnerability to energy shocks and its strategic use of gold reserves for liquidity during crises. If the conflict persists, further gold sales may be necessary, adding downward pressure on global gold prices.

marsbit03/30 00:08

US-Iran War: Why Did Turkey Sell Off 58.4 Tons of Gold in Two Weeks?

marsbit03/30 00:08

Silver Delivery Crisis: Paper Prosperity and Physical Shortage

The silver market in early 2026 is experiencing extreme stress, with prices reaching a record high of $121 per ounce before crashing by 31–36% in a single day. While mainstream commentary attributes the volatility to leverage and speculation, the underlying issue is a severe physical shortage of silver. Industrial demand, driven by solar panels, EVs, and other technologies, has outpaced supply for five years, with a 2026 deficit projected at nearly 200 million ounces. China’s export restrictions and U.S. stockpiling efforts have further strained supply. On the COMEX, registered silver inventory (available for delivery) has fallen by about 75% since 2020 to around 82 million ounces. Meanwhile, open interest for March 2026 contracts represents 425–455 million ounces of silver—far exceeding available supply. Even if only 20% of contracts demand physical delivery, COMEX lacks sufficient metal to meet obligations. Price volatility, backwardation, and widening exchange-for-physical spreads signal mounting delivery risk. Analysts warn that the March 2026 contract may lead to a COMEX default, exposing structural flaws in paper silver markets and potentially triggering broader financial contagion. Physical silver held outside the system is increasingly seen as the only secure store of value.

marsbit02/07 02:32

Silver Delivery Crisis: Paper Prosperity and Physical Shortage

marsbit02/07 02:32

Bitcoiners Celebrate ‘Genesis Day’ As US Debt Swells Past $38 Trillion

The US federal debt surpassed $38 trillion on January 3, 2026, coinciding with the Bitcoin community's observance of Genesis Day—the anniversary of Bitcoin's first block mined in 2009. The timing highlighted a contrast between rising public debt and Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins. Treasury data shows the debt has grown sharply from $34 trillion in early 2024, increasing by about $6 billion daily due to sustained deficits, higher interest payments, and government spending. Economists warn that rising debt could crowd out other fiscal priorities, while some investors view Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal risks. Bitcoin was trading near $91,487 amid the discussions.

bitcoinist01/04 17:02

Bitcoiners Celebrate ‘Genesis Day’ As US Debt Swells Past $38 Trillion

bitcoinist01/04 17:02

Witnessing History! Just Now, the First Limit-Up! Are Commodities Rallying Across the Board?

On December 15, the platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged by 7%, hitting a daily limit up for the first time since its listing, closing at 482.4 yuan/gram. Palladium futures also rose sharply by 4.73%. This rally reflects a broader global trend, with international platinum prices up 93% year-to-date, driven by structural supply constraints and growing demand. Supply-side issues are critical. Over 70% of global platinum production comes from South Africa, where aging infrastructure, power instability, and high operational costs hinder output. Similarly, palladium supply remains tight, with Russia—supplying over 40%—facing geopolitical risks. Global platinum supply has declined significantly from 258.4 tons in 2021 to an estimated 227.4 tons in 2024. Demand is robust and diversifying. Automotive applications (37.4% of platinum demand) remain stable, while industrial use (30%) spans chemicals, glass, and electronics. The hydrogen economy presents a major growth opportunity, as platinum is essential for fuel cells and electrolyzers. Investment demand is rising due to macroeconomic uncertainty and potential monetary easing. Analysts are bullish long-term, with some predicting platinum could reach $2,170–$2,300/oz by 2026. However, risks include high volatility, potential demand substitution from elevated prices, and sensitivity to global industrial activity. The rally underscores a broader commodities momentum, with some drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s role as "digital gold."

marsbit12/15 10:43

Witnessing History! Just Now, the First Limit-Up! Are Commodities Rallying Across the Board?

marsbit12/15 10:43

From Gatekeeper to Gravedigger: JPMorgan Bets on Physical Precious Metals, Shorts Dollar Credit

JPMorgan Chase, a long-standing guardian of the U.S. dollar-centric financial system, is reportedly shifting its core precious metals trading team to Singapore—a move interpreted as a strategic pivot away from Western dollar hegemony. The bank has reclassified approximately 169 million ounces of silver in COMEX vaults from “deliverable” to “non-deliverable,” effectively locking down nearly 10% of global annual supply. This signals a broader bet on physical metal accumulation and a loss of confidence in paper-based derivatives. The London and New York systems, built on leveraged paper contracts (with claims far exceeding physical metal), are showing strain. Central banks are accelerating gold repatriation, while industrial demand—especially for silver in green technology—is draining physical inventories. Extreme backwardation in silver and extended delivery wait times at the Bank of England suggest a structural rupture between paper markets and physical reality. Meanwhile, Shanghai has emerged as the world’s largest physical gold exchange, emphasizing full physical settlement and rejecting the Western paper-gold model. China’s industrial demand and central bank purchasing are pulling vast metal volumes eastward, reshaping global liquidity and pricing power. Singapore is positioning itself as a neutral hub with tax-free private vaults, attracting Western institutions like JPMorgan seeking a safe, politically acceptable base near Asian demand centers. Yet it remains caught between dollar liquidity and yuan-driven physical trade anchored in Shanghai. JPMorgan’s maneuver reflects a deeper shift: the end of financial alchemy based on unlimited paper leverage and the return to a tangible asset system where physical metal defines value and trust.

比推12/12 15:31

From Gatekeeper to Gravedigger: JPMorgan Bets on Physical Precious Metals, Shorts Dollar Credit

比推12/12 15:31

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