交给曲线,别和周期对抗:宏观分析大师 Raoul Pal 的加密 10 年投资复盘
Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, reflects on his 13-year journey in crypto, detailing costly mistakes like selling Bitcoin early due to FUD, which cost him significant potential gains. His key lesson: adopt a long-term perspective, ignore noise, and hold assets through volatility.
He distinguishes between Bitcoin as a "vault"—a scarce store of value targeting the global savings pool (like gold)—and smart contract platforms (Ethereum, Solana, Sui) as "rails" for the future machine economy. These platforms will coordinate transactions among AI agents and underpin global asset markets (real estate, debt, equities), representing a market opportunity orders of magnitude larger than Bitcoin's.
Addressing bearish sentiment, Pal argues that current pessimism stems from delayed market cycles, not a broken thesis. With economic indicators turning positive (e.g., ISM expansion), conditions are aligning for crypto's growth. His advice: understand the assets, believe in network adoption, and withstand periodic drawdowns. Let the exponential curve work—don't fight the cycle.
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