Polymarket User Adds Over $800,000 to Market on Clarity Act

cryptonews.ru2026-08-24 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-08-24 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

A user on Polymarket has placed a large bet exceeding $800,000 predicting that the U.S. CLARITY Act will not pass by the end of 2026. The trader, VelvetNova27, made the wager when the "No" outcome probability was at 77%. The position has already gained over $82,000 in value with more than four months remaining in the year. The CLARITY Act, intended to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, faces significant criticism from both the crypto industry and the banking sector. Despite ongoing amendments, the bill fails to satisfy key stakeholders. Critics include Coinbase's CEO, who has expressed frustration with legislative delays and hinted at moving business out of the U.S., and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, who is disappointed by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's support for the initiative. Market sentiment on Polymarket has shifted dramatically. While the probability of the act passing in 2026 exceeded 80% in February, it has consistently declined since May, dropping to 14% by late August. This downturn is attributed to the U.S. legislative recess and uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections.

Today, a Polymarket user placed a large bet that the American CLARITY Act will not be passed by the end of 2026.

Trader VelvetNova27 wagered $818,130 on this outcome, while the "No" probability at the time of opening the position was 77%, according to data from Predictbook.

The recent changes in the odds for the CLARITY Act mean the bet has already increased in value by $82,078, even though there are just over four months remaining until the end of the year.

Attitudes towards the CLARITY Act bill are negative both in the crypto industry and in the banking sector. Meanwhile, its goal is to create a regulatory framework for digital assets.

In an attempt to please both opposing sides, the document is constantly being amended, but even these amendments do not find approval. For instance, the CEO of the American crypto exchange Coinbase is dissatisfied with the slowness of legislators. Because of this, the company may move its business outside the United States.

Cardano (ADA) blockchain founder Charles Hoskinson is also critical of this law and is extremely disappointed that Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse has supported this initiative.

Sentiment regarding the CLARITY Act on Polymarket has changed noticeably: in February, the probability of its passage in 2026 exceeded 80%, but since May, this figure has been steadily declining. On August 24, it dropped to 14%, which is explained by the recess of American lawmakers and the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections.

end-content

İlgili Sorular

QWhat was the size and prediction of the large Polymarket bet mentioned in the article?

AA user named VelvetNova27 made a large bet of $818,130, predicting that the U.S. CLARITY Act will NOT be passed by the end of 2026.

QWhy is the CLARITY Act facing criticism from the crypto and banking industries, according to the article?

AThe CLARITY Act faces negative sentiment from both the crypto industry and the banking sector because, while its goal is to create a regulatory framework for digital assets, its amendments fail to gain approval from either side, pleasing no one.

QWhat consequence did the article mention regarding Coinbase's potential response to the legislative delays?

ADue to dissatisfaction with the slowness of legislators, Coinbase may move its business outside of the United States.

QWho criticized the CLARITY Act and was disappointed by Ripple's support for it, as per the article?

ACharles Hoskinson, the founder of the Cardano (ADA) blockchain, criticized the CLARITY Act and was extremely disappointed that Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse supported the initiative.

QHow have the odds of the CLARITY Act's passage changed on Polymarket from February to August, and what reasons were given?

AOn Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 fell from over 80% in February to 14% on August 24th. This decline is attributed to U.S. lawmakers' summer recess and uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections.

İlgili Okumalar

Silicon Valley AI Status: Whoever Has the Compute is the Boss

The Silicon Valley AI Power Crunch: Compute is King Silicon Valley's race for AI dominance has devolved into a desperate scramble for computing power. The situation has become so extreme that even top executives are resorting to unusual measures. Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei was reportedly turned down by Meta's Mark Zuckerberg when seeking additional GPU resources, leading to a deal where SpaceX acts as a broker, reselling Nvidia GPUs to Anthropic. This venture reportedly generated $2.561 billion in quarterly AI revenue for SpaceX. The shortage is reshaping the industry's dynamics, creating a new "compute economy" where GPU access is the ultimate currency. This scarcity is causing internal strife at major firms and altering competitive landscapes. A high-profile example is Noam Shazeer, a key AI scientist whom Google re-hired for $2.7 billion, only for him to leave for OpenAI reportedly due to insufficient compute resources for his team. Similar frustrations over resource allocation have been cited within Google and DeepMind. For AI startups, the challenge is existential. Cloud providers are now demanding multi-year contracts with large upfront payments, making flexible, on-demand access nearly impossible. This has spurred innovative workarounds, including a new market for "global compute prospecting"—companies scavenging for underutilized server capacity worldwide—and venture capital firms like Y Combinator and Radical Ventures directly acquiring and allocating GPU clusters for their portfolio companies. The root causes are complex: explosive growth in AI model complexity and the shift from simple chatbots to persistent "Agent" systems dramatically increase compute demands. While tech giants are building new data centers, supply cannot keep pace with immediate needs. Rental prices for critical chips like the Nvidia H100 have surged nearly 40% in months. The consequence is a consolidation of power. Compute access is becoming the definitive barrier to entry, significantly strengthening large companies with their own infrastructure and creating a lucrative "picks and shovels" market for those who control the hardware supply. In today's Silicon Valley, compute isn't just a resource—it's the foundation of survival and competitive advantage.

marsbit11 dk önce

Silicon Valley AI Status: Whoever Has the Compute is the Boss

marsbit11 dk önce

Even Losing Money Requires Waiting in Line, How Far Can PaperTrade's 1000x Leverage Experiment Go?

PaperTrade, a synthetic perpetual contract platform built on HyperEVM, launched on October 10th. Its defining feature is offering up to 1000x leverage and rewarding users with its native token, PAPER, for trading losses or liquidations—a mechanism dubbed "losing money to mine." This sparked initial frenzy, with users queuing to execute trades and generate losses for PAPER rewards. Within 24 hours, nominal trading volume exceeded $678 billion. The platform operates without traditional order books; users trade directly against a shared USDC liquidity pool. Profits are paid from this pool, but if insufficient funds exist, payments queue on a first-in, first-out basis. PAPER has zero initial supply, minted solely from qualifying user losses, and can be staked for a share of protocol revenue. However, controversies emerged quickly. Smaller orders faced longer execution queues compared to larger ones. More critically, PaperTrade's reliance on Hyperliquid's mid-price for asset pricing made it vulnerable to market manipulation. Reports indicated that actors potentially moved prices on Hyperliquid to profit from large, highly leveraged positions on PaperTrade. The team acknowledged this as a known risk, exacerbated by high initial position limits, and has since tightened limits to reduce the attack surface. After the initial surge, open interest and margin deposited have significantly declined. The platform's long-term viability hinges on whether the value and revenue share from PAPER can justify the initial "loss-mining" strategy for users, moving beyond speculative hype to sustainable returns.

marsbit40 dk önce

Even Losing Money Requires Waiting in Line, How Far Can PaperTrade's 1000x Leverage Experiment Go?

marsbit40 dk önce

XRP Ledger defends emergency patch for unlimited XRP bug

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) development team defended its decision to enact an emergency security patch on September 25, bypassing the network's usual two-week validator voting process. The patch fixed a critical integer overflow bug, present since 2015, which could have been exploited to create unlimited XRP beyond the network's fixed supply. Developers argued that the normal amendment process would have publicly exposed the flaw for weeks, posing a severe security risk. This expedited fix, triggered by a bug bounty report, led to debates about XRPL's decentralization. Critics, including Cyber Capital founder Justin Bons, argued that the coordinated upgrade and temporary withholding of source code demonstrated centralized control, contradicting claims that XRP is not a security. In response, the XRPL Foundation, RippleX, core developers, and validators stated the decision was a collective assessment of the bug's severity, and that no single entity could force the update. Independent validators like XRP Kuwait emphasized that coordination among operators does not equate to loss of independence. The vulnerability report clarified the bug existed in the payment engine and could only be triggered by deliberately constructed offers, with no evidence of exploitation on public networks. The patch version later became officially required through a normal amendment vote with over 80% validator support.

cointelegraph1 saat önce

XRP Ledger defends emergency patch for unlimited XRP bug

cointelegraph1 saat önce

How Is the Chip Industry Getting Strangled? Latest Analysis from the United States

The U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) report analyzes vulnerabilities in the global upstream supply chain critical to American semiconductor production. It reveals that while 95% of the ~$27 billion in equipment and materials used annually by U.S. chip firms come from U.S., European, and Japanese headquartered suppliers, over 32% of this supply is actually manufactured in regions like China, Taiwan, Israel, Southeast Asia, and South Korea. A deeper analysis of sub-tier dependencies exposes hidden risks: over three-quarters of Tier-1 supply categories rely on at least one highly vulnerable upstream raw material (e.g., rare earths, gallium, germanium, graphite, tungsten, polycrystalline silicon), where China dominates production or processing. Key recommendations include: 1) Selectively expanding domestic production and strategic stockpiles for critical items; 2) Strengthening supply chains with trusted allies through investment and cooperation; 3) Reducing dependence on unreliable sources of rare earths and critical minerals by developing new mining/processing capacities with partners; and 4) Increasing R&D funding for next-generation materials and recycling technologies. Building a resilient, trustworthy supply chain requires sustained coordination among government, industry, and international partners.

marsbit1 saat önce

How Is the Chip Industry Getting Strangled? Latest Analysis from the United States

marsbit1 saat önce

Ethereum Is Losing Its Moat? 10 Reasons to Counter the ETH Bearish Thesis

Ethereon's "moat" isn't disappearing according to this rebuttal. The author argues against the bearish claim that Ethereum is losing its final competitive advantage—liquidity. While acknowledging valid points like the migration of flagship dApps and a gradual decline in stablecoin market share to other chains, the piece contends these trends are overstated or misinterpreted. Key counter-arguments include: 1) Ethereum's value isn't solely tied to direct revenue (REV), but also to its "monetary premium" as a reserve/collateral asset. 2) Growth on its Layer 2s (L2s) like Base and Robinhood Chain is a win for Ethereum's ecosystem. 3) The stablecoin market is expanding, so a reduced share still translates to massive future growth in absolute value. The author lists ten reasons for Ethereum's enduring strength: its dominant DeFi TVL (65%), deep liquidity, security, massive institutional adoption (ETFs hold ~13% of supply), leadership in Real-World Assets (RWA), the choice of major players to build on it, a decade of uptime, the largest developer community, high staking rates (36%), and its foundational role as a "world computer." The conclusion suggests Ethereum may deserve valuation as critical infrastructure, not just a revenue-generating asset.

marsbit2 saat önce

Ethereum Is Losing Its Moat? 10 Reasons to Counter the ETH Bearish Thesis

marsbit2 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot
活动图片