Author:Liam 'Akiba' Wright
Compiled by:Shenchao TechFlow
Shenchao Introduction: An anonymous trader bought 20,000 $70,000 call options and simultaneously sold 20,000 $72,000 call options on Deribit, with a total notional value of $2.5 billion, expiring on July 31st—two days after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. With Bitcoin's current price at $64,289, this means they are betting that Bitcoin will surge 9% in 10 days to break through the $70,000 mark. However, ETF fund flows are fluctuating, and on-chain cost basis analysis shows $69,000 remains a defensive line for buyers. Whether this massive bet pays off depends on whether a demand surge after the Fed's decision can overcome these resistance levels.
Deribit's options board for July 31st shows over 20,000 Bitcoin call option contracts concentrated at the $70,000 and $72,000 strike prices.
These two strikes are the largest call option concentration points for that expiration date. Exchange data at the time of writing shows approximately 27,000 contracts at $70,000 and about 21,000 contracts at $72,000. Bitcoin's current price is near $64,289, making the lower strike price about 8.9% higher than the spot price.
Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer of Deribit, told CoinDesk that a large transaction involved buying 20,000 call options expiring on July 31st with a strike price of $70,000, while simultaneously selling the same number of call options with a strike price of $72,000.
Independent exchange data concentration confirms the existence of large positions at these two strike prices, forming a 20,000-by-20,000 bull call spread.
Based on this structure, the total notional value of the two legs is approximately $2.5 billion at the current Bitcoin price. The premium paid, capital invested, and net exposure are different metrics from this figure.
These options will expire two days after the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. The strike price concentration, expiration date, and spot price gap collectively define a tactical test for Bitcoin in the final days of July.
A Spread Trade Within a Larger Options Concentration
Under the reported structure, the $70,000 call options provide upside exposure above the lower strike price at expiration, while selling the same number of $72,000 call options reduces the cost and caps further gains. The resulting bull call spread reaches its maximum profit once Bitcoin reaches or exceeds the higher strike price at expiration.
This structure can express a directional view, hedge another options position, or hedge a separate exposure. Neither Deribit's open interest chart nor the reported block trade identifies the counterparty's broader portfolio, so this position speaks most clearly through its capped profit and short-term expiration.
A CryptoSlate review of options positions on July 17th found approximately $4.5 billion in call option open interest between $70,000 and $80,000. Open interest counts outstanding contracts; the direction depends on how calls are bought, sold, and combined with the rest of a portfolio. This concentration highlights price zones, rather than turning every contract into an identical bullish bet.
An independent prediction market snapshot on July 20th showed the probability of Bitcoin touching $70,000 this month at 14.5%, and touching $72,500 at 4.1%. The $67,500 threshold was at 34.5%, while a downside touch of $62,500 was at 67.4%.
Each threshold is an independent, non-exclusive binary event, so Bitcoin can trigger multiple levels in a volatile month. These contracts measure whether a certain level is touched at any point in July.
The profit from the options spread is tied to its July 31st expiration structure. Therefore, these percentages provide broader market context but answer a different question than the spread.
Fed Timing Makes Demand the July Test
The Federal Reserve's official calendar sets the next FOMC meeting for July 28th and 29th. The policy decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on July 29th, followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM. The call spread expires on July 31st.
The Fed decision falls in the final stages of the trade. From Bitcoin's July 20th price, reaching the $70,000 to $72,000 range still requires breaking through the $69,000 zone, where recent buying and selling has been concentrated.
CryptoSlate's on-chain analysis on July 19th pinpointed the cost basis test for recent buyers around $69,000 when Bitcoin was below that level. The same analysis identified $52,891 as a conditional lower pressure boundary if weak demand persists. Both levels shift as the coin trades, making them moving reference points rather than fixed destinations.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows provide a second test of demand. Farside's daily table recorded net inflows of $197 million from July 6th to 10th, and $75 million from July 13th to 17th, totaling $272 million. A single trading day produced a $424 million outflow, showing how quickly a brief positive run can reverse.
ETF buyers added $272 million over two weeks, but the single-day $424 million outflow shows how quickly such support can vanish. Sustained breakout in the $69,000 to $70,000 zone alongside more stable inflows would provide broader confirmation for the call spread. Persistent failure in that zone would make the trade an isolated tactical position ahead of expiration.
Longer-Term Forecasts Run on a Different Clock
Digital asset financial services firm NYDIG stated on July 10th that matching the duration of the previous two major cycle drawdowns, coupled with a shallower decline of around 70%, could imply a potential low around $38,000 to $39,000 in early October.
Coinbase Institutional's analysis on July 3rd identified $58,000 to $59,000 as the first high-intensity support zone, followed by $48,000 to $50,000, approximately $42,000, and $39,000 to $40,000 if higher levels fail. Its July 6th positioning report described end-of-June positioning as washed out, with options skew favoring downside protection. Both articles, preceding the July 18th call spread flow, provided an earlier risk benchmark.
Citi revised its 12-month Bitcoin target down from $112,000 to $82,000 and set a $53,000 bear case scenario conditional on a recession and sustained ETF outflows. Citi also lowered its assumed 12-month ETF net inflows from $10 billion to zero. In two other outlooks, Standard Chartered maintained its $100,000 year-end 2026 target, while Bernstein retained an explicitly ambitious year-end $150,000 target.
These numbers cover an early October cycle scenario, conditional support zones, 12-month bank targets, and year-end targets.
July's decision tree is shorter: spot must cover the 8.9% gap to $70,000, absorb selling near recent buyer cost bases, and do so against a backdrop of uneven ETF flows.
Bitcoin is up 0.80% in the last 24 hours and is currently ranked #1 by market capitalization.
Where the Broader Market Stands Now
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.23 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $69.65 billion. Bitcoin dominance stands at 58.73%.
